Hello! Been a pretty hellish week on my end, the AC went out on Monday, and, as it turns out, our builder fucked up the wiring from our breaker to our condenser, so our neighbor’s condo was responsible for powering our AC all along, so when they moved out and cut their power, our AC went with it. Fun! The HOA and builder both told me to fuck off and fix it myself, so that’s been fun. If you’re ever in the market for a home, do yourself a favor and don’t buy one built by Lennar.
Anywho, nobody cares about this but me. So, I guess we should talk about something else. We’ve got 10 baseball games on the docket this evening, and, fortunately, no real weather issues, either. Let us discuss it.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Friday
- Dustin May ($7,800, vs. Reds)
- MacKenzie Gore ($8,300, vs. Mariners)
- Logan Webb ($9,700, vs. Angels)
- Bryce Miller ($10,000, at Rangers)
- Roki Sasaki ($7,300, at Mets)
- Trevor Rogers ($7,600, vs. Braves)
I guess that’s it. The only game with slight potential weather issues is in St. Louis, so, naturally, I like one of the pitchers there. Dustin May has been quite the rollercoaster ride this season. He occasionally looks like the best pitcher in the league. He occasionally looks like he’s never thrown a baseball in his life. He always looks like Waluigi.
For the season, May has a 22.9% K-rate, 7.7% walk rate, and a 4.00 SIERA, which is quite a bit better than his bloated 4.78 ERA. Stranding baserunners (63%!) has been a problem. Tonight he’ll face a Reds bunch with a pretty high strikeout rate (24.1%) against RHP. Cincy is also generally a more imposing offense against lefties. May’s overall numbers are far better against right-handed hitters, and the Reds are projected to have 5 RHBs in there against him. Plus, it’s a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If the weather holds, I will have significant exposure here, as his $7,800 salary effectively helps to bake in the risk.
Both pitchers in the Mariners-Rangers game are interesting. The Mariners play in the most pitcher-friendly park in the league, but they’re on the road tonight. Fortunately, per Statcast, the Rangers’ home ballpark is the 2nd-best pitcher’s park in baseball this year.
Bryce Miller (29.5% Ks, 4.1% walks, 2.95 SIERA) has been arguably the Mariners’ best pitcher this season, which is saying something. His sample is still on the small side, but he’s been particularly dominant (33% Ks) vs. righties. Like the Reds, Texas is projected to have 5 RHBs in the lineup tonight. The Rangers aren’t quite as K-prone as the Reds (21.6%), but they’re about even on the power front. Miller won’t come cheap at $10,000, but I’m fine playing him here.
The volatile MacKenzie Gore takes the same mound on the other side of this one. The rare reverse-splits lefty has been excellent against RHBs (27.5% Ks, 7.8% walks), while his numbers have tailed off quite a bit vs. same-handed hitters (20% Ks, 12.2% walks). The Mariners – for some reason – have been very poor offensively this year. Tonight’s projected lineup has a .119 ISO, .299 wOBA, and a 22.5% strikeout rate vs. southpaws. Beyond Julio Rodriguez, they’ve all just really sucked? Gore is never trustworthy, but the price is right ($8,300) and I’m not scared of Seattle.
Logan Webb ($9,700) should attract some attention for a home matchup against the Angels. Last year’s 26.2% strikeout rate looks more anomalous with each passing start. This year, he’s down at just 19.4%, which is still lower than his career 22.5% clip. Webb does have excellent control and good groundball skills (50.8%), while there are probably a few more Ks in the offing thanks to the matchup (25.7% Ks vs. RHP). Plus, facing them in San Francisco is another bonus. We love bonuses, don’t we folks?
Webb feels like a very safe play. $9,700 is on the high side for a guy with a sub-20% K-rate, but it’s also hard to imagine him struggling much in this one.
Roki Sasaki? It’s impossible to know what you’re going to get from him on a nightly basis. He went out and dominated the Yankees in New York last weekend, and tonight he’s in New York again, this time to face the Mets. Sasaki’s 13% swinging strike rate indicates his 22.7% K-rate has room for growth, but walks (9.1%) and barrels (12%) are a problem. His 110 Stuff+ number is also elite. It’s not a matter of talent, it’s just a matter of harnessing his control. That sentence reads like AI, doesn’t it? Fortunately, Grok played no role in crafting this wondrous baseball breakdown.
Sasaki gets a park boost going into Citi Field. The Mets these days are just a neutral matchup across the board (20.8% Ks, 8.8% walks, .163 ISO, .329 wOBA). I think the $7,300 salary makes Sasaki very interesting, but I also have no qualms with playing the Mets against him.
The last pitcher to whom I’m getting much exposure is Trevor Rogers. Regression finally hunted him down this season after he enjoyed a very lucky run of form last year. The strikeouts (18.8%) are way down from where they were last year (24.3%), but he still has excellent numbers against his fellow lefties (25% Ks, .106 ISO allowed). Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return does give the Braves an imposing RHB to throw at him, but most of the rest of Atlanta’s imposing bats are left-handed. Atlanta has a collective .170 ISO and .318 wOBA vs. lefties this season. They’re a bunch of big names who haven’t really performed. Rogers will presumably come with zero ownership, so I like him enough if you’re looking to get different with one of your SP spots.
SP Rankings
- May
- Webb
- Gore
- Miller
- Sasaki
- Rogers
Best MLB DFS Stacks for July 24
- Orioles (vs. Grant Holmes)
- Dodgers (at Sean Manaea)
- Mets (vs. Roki Sasaki)
- Marlins (vs. German Marquez)
- Rays (vs. Joey Cantillo)
- White Sox (vs. Spencer Arrighetti)
- Astros (at Davis Martin)
- Twins (vs. Jacob Lopez)
- A’s (at Zebby)
- Cardinals (vs. Rhett Lowder)
- Giants (vs. Grayson Rodriguez)
Thankfully, we don’t have Coors or West Sacramento or Las Vegas or Mexico City or any tomfoolery on this slate from a hitting standpoint. That makes the offenses murky. And I like my offenses like I like my brackish waters: murky.
Grant Holmes isn’t particularly good, and his numbers against left-handed bats (11% barrels, .172 ISO) make the Orioles’ LHBs look pretty god. They’re a little watered down, so probably better deployed as a mini stack with Gunnar Henderson, Dylan Beavers, Colton Cowser, and…Jackson Holliday, I guess? Not having Adley Rutschman or Samuel Basallo makes this stack tougher to like as a full 5-man.
Both sides of Dodgers-Mets are interesting, even in a park that generally favors pitchers. Sean Manaea has been an ace against lefties, but he resembles a gas can against righties (9% barrels, .234 ISO, .377 wOBA). I never like the Dodgers quite as much vs. southpaws, but Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez, Mookie Betts, and Tommy Edman profile pretty well here. You can play Shohei Ohtani against anyone, as always. Miguel Rojas will start but has pinch-hit risk, so tread lightly like ASAC Schrader with him.
Sasaki has allowed a 12% barrel rate, .240 ISO, and .347 wOBA this year with no obvious splits. If anything, righties (.284 ISO) have hit him harder. Most of the Mets you’d want are lefties, and I’m expecting low ownership here. There’s a chance Sasaki will even catch some 10%-20% ownership, so there’s potential leverage with the New York side. Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Jared Young, and Francisco Alvarez have the best overall numbers against right-handed pitching, while AJ Ewing, Carson Benge, and Bo Bichette are certainly in play for full stacking. The Dodgers do have an elite bullpen behind Sasaki, so I can’t really endorse the Mets as an awesome stack on this slate, but I do like them enough.
The Marlins will take on German Marquez, an old man (he is 31 years old) who doesn’t really belong on a major-league mound anymore. Much like the Dodgers, the Padres have a great bullpen backing him up, but I think Marquez is inflammable enough to make Miami look good. Lefties (.312 ISO, 11.1% barrels, .414 wOBA) have really lit his tits ablaze, so Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards, Liam Hicks, Griffin Conine, and Joe Mack grade out well. Ditto for the scufflin’ Jakob Marsee if he cracks the order. Otto Lopez is always playable in stacks.
Joey Cantillo is borderline playable on this slate, but I don’t mind a mini-stack of the Rays’ RHBs against him – Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Ryan Vilade, and Jonny DeLuca have fared well vs. LHP. And that’s enough about that.
Spencer Arrighetti got off to a good start this season, but the underlying numbers always suggested he was getting lucky. The White Sox also just pound right-handed pitching, while Houston’s bullpen has been among baseball’s worst all year. Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, Sam Antonacci, Andrew Benintendi, Braden Montgomery, and Tristan Peters all have outstanding numbers vs. RHP. Even Drew Romo (.167 ISO) has shown some thump.
Davis Martin has improved numbers this season, buuuuuuuut I’m not really buying him as a pitcher we can’t attack. Weirdly, the Astros have hit for even more power (.217 ISO) than the White Sox (.195) against RHP on the year. Martin tends to avoid getting blown up, but I don’t mind Houston as a lower-owned stack. Yordan Alvarez has a .500 wOBA and a .356 ISO against right-handed pitching across 331 plate appearances this season, which is truly insane. All of Christian Walker, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Cam Smith have shown some power vs. RHP, as well. Pretty good stuff here.
I never feel great about the Twins, but their right-handed hitters will grade out nicely against the middling Jacob Lopez (.229 ISO, .393 wOBA vs. RHB). Byron Buxton, Austin Martin, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis, and Josh Bell is the 5-man I’d run with. Zebby (12.5% barrels) has allowed power to hitters from both sides. The A’s aren’t at full strength, but Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, and Carlos Cortes is a solid mini-stack. Angels legend Donovan Walton, Lawrence Butler, and Jacob Wilson would be next in full stacks.
Rhett Lowder might be the slate’s worst pitcher, especially against lefties (.211 ISO, .380 wOBA, 13.4% barrels). All of JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Nathan Church, and Jimmy Crooks will have the platoon advantage. I’ll play Jordan Walker against anyone.
Grayson Rodriguez may bounce back eventually, but for now, he’s kind of a must-attack pitcher, even in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Bryce Eldridge, Heliot Ramos, Rafael Devers, Casey Schmitt, and Willy Adames look pretty awesome here.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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