Best MLB DFS Picks and Stacks for Monday, July 20

Howdy, folks. It is, inexplicably, already July 20. We’re almost to August, objectively The Worst Month of the Year. Brace yourselves!

How ’bout that World Cup? I miss it already. Spain were deserving winners, especially in light of Argentina’s shambolic, gutless effort yesterday. Argentina had the ball for approximately 2% of the game, and that 2% all came in the final minutes of extra time after Ferran Torres fired home the winner.

Let this be a lesson to you: Never wash a baby, otherwise he will return 19 years later and defeat you.

There are 14 (?!?!?!) baseball games on tonight’s slate, so I guess we should probably talk about most of them. Let’s do that.

Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for July 20

Jacob Misiorowski ($12,000, vs. Mets)
Ryan Weathers ($7,700, vs. Pirates)
Braxton Ashcraft ($9,200, at Yankees)
Jacob deGrom ($10,000, vs. White Sox)
George Kirby ($9,400, vs. Reds)
Dylan Cease ($10,500, vs. Rays)
Kyle Leahy ($6,500, at Angels)
Cristopher Sanchez ($11,000, vs. Dodgers)

Buddy, this is as loaded a pitching slate as you’ll find. At the top, at least. Things do thin out eventually, but we’ve got aces out the wazoo here. As we know, however, Aces Love to Pitch Like Shit, so maybe we should proceed with caution.

Firstly, Cristopher Sanchez is facing the Dodgers. He’s fabulous and fantastic, but the same can be said of the Dodgers, and he’s coming at no discount at $11,000 tonight. I play a lot of lineups, and I assume Sanchez will appear in some of them, but that will be a very low number. I expect him to be fine, but I don’t really think 20 points from an $11,000 pitcher will cut it tonight, so he’s a fairly easy fade, even at what should be wildly low ownership.

I reckon we have to start the #RealTalk with Jacob Misiorowski, who welcomes the Mets to town. He’s $12,000, which I gues is kind of a discount, since I think we paid $13,000 for this fella not too long ago. I don’t have any new superlatives here, I’ve used them all up writing about him previously, I guess. His 39.6% strikeout rate is simply extraordinary, and this year, he’s only walked 6.4% of opposing hitters. If they’re lucky enough to make contact, they’re most often hitting the ball on the ground (45.9%), and they can’t barrel him up (3.2%).

There are no weaknesses. Over the last month, his K-rate is up to 42%, while his walk rate is down to 5.3%. He has allowed a weirdly high barrel rate to RHBs (16.7%), so I guess that’s a fault. It’s a pretty minor one, all things considered. The Mets (.163 ISO, .321 wOBA, 20.6% Ks) are a pretty neutral matchup in most regards. They will be pretty left-handed against him – with as many as 6 of them in the lineup – but, uh, Misiorowski has a 47.6% K-rate against lefties this season. El oh el! I’m playing him – a ton – and that’s fine.

I listed Ryan Weathers second. That’s a little silly given the other names in the pool, but hear me out. He’s only $7,700 for a home matchup against the Pirates. We paid upwards of $10,000 for him not too long ago. Weathers’ strikeout stuff (26.9%) is good, his main bugaboo is allowing power. The 10% barrel rate allowed is scary, but the Pirates (.164 ISO, .322 wOBA, 23.4% Ks vs. LHP) are generally more imposing against right-handers. I will note that Esmerlyn Valdez (.636 ISO, .573 wOBA vs. LHP) appears to be Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, and Aaron Judge put together, but it’s still a fine spot for Weathers. The cheap salary really comes in handy on this slate, though I assume he’ll be a chalky partner to pair with The Miz.

Okay, back to our regularly scheduled aces. Dylan Cease ($10,500) and Jacob deGrom ($10,000) are both a bit cheaper than Sanchez for matchups against the Rays and White Sox, respectively. I’d rather play the guy facing the Rays. It helps that Cease has been fantastic (36.9% Ks, 2.96 SIERA). The question with Cease is whether he will simply just walk everyone and ruin his outing that way. Tampa Bay will take their walks (9.7%), but they’re also about on par with the Pirates and Mets in terms of power. Not necessarily an elite matchup for Cease – especially given their 19.1% strikeout rate vs. RHP – but I assume he’ll come in with maybe half as much ownershp as Misiorowski. I like it.

DeGrom? Overall, his numbers are also terrific (30.4% Ks, 5.5% walks, 3.02 SIERA). For some reason, it just seems like he goes out there and gives up like 5 runs to the Angels in every start, yet the numbers are the numbers. His 16.8% swinging strike rate is one of the highest in baseball. The problem is he’s $10,000, and the White Sox (.199 ISO, .344 wOBA vs. RHP) are very good now. DeGrom has also allowed some dongs (8.9% barrels, .167 ISO to LHB), and most of Chicago’s most imposing bats will have the platoon edge over him. They do strike out a good bit (22.8%), so it’s a boom/bust spot. I think he’s a good play, but I can only rank him 3rd among the 5-figure options. I suppose that’s a good problem.

Braxton Ashcraft will toe the same rubber as Weathers. He’s kinda come out of nowhere to be very good (27.8% Ks, 5.8% walks, 3.26 SIERA), and the Yankees without Aaron Judge are Not Quite The Yankees. There’s still power for Ashcraft to navigate (.193 ISO, .322 wOBA vs. RHP). I like that Ash has an even better strikeout rate (31.5%) against lefties, as that will come in handy against a lefty-heavy lot. I can see playing both sides of this, as Ashcraft has also yielded some power (.189 ISO) to LHBs. I’d rather play Ashcraft, of course, and he’s useful if you need a little more salary at just $9,200.

George Kirby ($9,400) checks in in the same range for a home matchup against Cincinnati. Kirby’s strikeout stuff (21.5%) is really lacking this season, even if he’s never been a huge source of Ks in the first place. He still has elite control and a nice groundball lean (48.5%), and perhaps there are some extra whiffs in the offing given the Reds’ proclivity for going down that way (24.3% vs. RHP). This offense has a lot of thunder at the top, but it’s not a great one overall (.168 ISO, .302 wOBA vs. RHP). Whatever thunder they do have may also be mitigated by the pitching-friendly environs of the PNW. Kirby might be my highest-owned pitcher on another slate, but this is not another slate, this is this slate, this can only be this slate, we only ever talk about this slate, and he’s down in like 5th or 6th place as a result.

Based on things like talent and numbers, the one guy who doesn’t really belong in this conversation is Kyle Leahy. But he is in this conversation because we are talking about this slate, and he’s only $6,500 for a matchup against the lowly, no-good, Anaheim-playing-in-LA Angels. A guy with a 19.3% strikeout rate sounds not-good, but, as we know, the Halos will strike out (25.2%) with the best of ’em. It’s generally a more imposing group against lefties, as well. Leahy is not left-handed, and he’s very cheap on a slate where salary is very tight. For those reasons, he will appear in some of my lineups.

SP Rankings

Misiorowski
Weathers
Cease
deGrom
Ashcraft
Kirby
Leahy
Sanchez

Best MLB DFS Stacks for Monday

Nationals (at Kyle Freeland)
Giants (at Michael Wacha)
Tigers (at Jameson Taillon)
DBax (vs. Jeffrey Springs)
Orioles (at Payton Tolle)
Braves (vs. JP Sears)
Brewers (vs. #RevengeGaming Freddy Peralta)
Royals (vs. Trevor McDonald)
Rangers (vs. Erick Fedde)

It’s a weird slate. We have quite a few aces, but since there are so many games, there are also plenty of teams facing nonsense pitchers. One of those nonsense pitchers is Kyle Freeland, and the team facing him is the Not At All Nonsense Nationals. Of course, the Nationals are priced appropriately, so it’s tough to pair them with the Miz. It may also be impossible to do a full stack + Miz, though, admittedly, I have not attempted it.

I will note that Freeland’s numbers against his fellow lefties (22.2% Ks, 1% walks, .151 ISO) are not that bad? A 1% walk rate is crazy. We know Washington’s 2 most imposing hitters are left-handed – James Wood and CJ Abrams – and they’re also the most expensive pieces. Stacking Washington without them is viable, especially if it gets you the pitching you want. Freeland’s numbers vs. RHBs (.269 ISO, .400 wOBA, 11.9% barrels) are Certified, Grade-A Ass. While the Nationals’ right-handed hitters aren’t exactly a bunch of renowned names (Curtis Mead, Andres Chaparro, Dylan Crews, Harry Ford), they are good enough to get to Freeland, especially in the game’s best hitter’s park. Obviously, this is the top stack on the board, and there’s a chance Wood/Abrams come in lower owned than they otherwise might just because of their salaries, the depth of expensive pitching, and the field’s well-established General Reluctance (at ease, corporal) to play lefty hitters against lefty pitchers.

Were I playing one lineup, I may opt to get a piece of Washington (Ford or something), but I’d prioritize getting to the pitching I want. There are some decent alternatives. There’s some weather concern at Wrigley, but the Tigers are one of my favorite stacks for a matchup against the middling Jameson Taillon. There’s decent hitting weather here if we get the green light, so I doubt Detroit will totally fly under the radar. Taillon’s overall numbers are pretty dreadful against LHBs (.323 ISO, 15% barrels, .393 wOBA), and Detroit lines up nicely here with all of Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle, Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter, and Dodger legends Zach McKinstry and James Outman holding the platoon advantage. Taillon has also yielded a 13.6% barrel rate and a .200 ISO to righties, which certainly keeps Dillon Dingler and Spencer Torkelson in play.

There’s also good hittin’ weather in KC, where the Giants will face Michael Wacha. Wacha is a decent real-life pitcher who doesn’t often melt down, so I wouldn’t call this a high-percentage stack. I’m still fine with it. Wacha has always had a reverse split from the right side. Good news for Casey Schmitt, Willy Adames, and Heliot Ramos specifically. One of Rafael Devers or Bryce Eldridge always makes the cut in Giants stacks, while Luis Arraez is generally a fine way to fill the shitty 2B spot.

Arizona isn’t a great offense, but Jeffrey Springs also kinda sucks? Whatever strikeout stuff he had earlier in his career seems to be gone, and he’s allowing a ton of power (.259 ISO, .361 wOBA, 9.8% barrels). Righties generally do most of the damage, but his numbers aren’t much more impressive against LHBs. Ketel Marte makes for a fine one-off if you’re not sold on the rest of these guys, but I’m good with Nolan Arenado, Ryan Waldschmidt, Gabriel Moreno, and Geraldo Perdomo. Tyler Locklear is also back up, and he’s a decent prospect with some power from the right side. I assume Corbin Carroll won’t play, but if he does, I never mind getting to him in lefty-lefty spots.

The O’s get a park bump going into Fenway, though they’ll face a decent pitcher in Payton Tolle. I prefer them as a mini-stack, and I’d side with the RHBs in a park that favors right-handed power – Pete Alonso, Tyler O’Neill, Taylor Ward, and Coby Mayo are the standouts.

The Braves’ matchup is similar to the DBax’ against a homer-prone, flyball lefty in JP Sears. Lefties have hit Sears well enough to keep all of Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, and Michael Harris playable in stacks, while Ozzie Albies, Elite White, and Mauricio Dubon are fine from the right side. I don’t know when Austin Riley got his talent sucked out of him by the Monstars, but he’s been horrendous.

Freddy Peralta will head to Milwaukee to face his old team. The Brewers cashed in on him at the right time, as he’s gone to the Mets and instantly become washed. Ya hate to see it. Left-handed hitters (.204 ISO, .341 wOBA) have done most of the damage. Good spot for Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, and Garrett Mitchell. Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara are a couple of highly-rated prospects now in the lineup, while I never mind plugging Williams Contreras into stacks to fill catcher.

The Rangers are another bad offense, but Erick Fedde is even worse. RHBs (.255 ISO, .361 wOBA) have really lit him on fire. Wyatt Langford, Jake Burger, and Josh Jung are the Rangers’ righties of note, and I’m happy to play Joc Pederson against any low-strikeout right-hander.

Trevor McDonald has been lights-out against righties, but he hasn’t figured out lefties yet. Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, and Vinnie Pasquantino form a solid and 66.6% Italian KC mini-stack.

Noah Simpson

Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.

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