Hello! It’s Friday, so that’s cool. Baseball’s been gone for a few days, and now it’s back. I guess it was back last night, but it was just one game, and the Phillies and Mets probably woke up today with blacker lungs than they had when they woke up yesterday.
Speaking of black lungs, the northeast is still apparently dealing with heavy smoke from those Canadian wildfires, and a couple of games on tonight’s beefer of a 14-game slate could be at risk. It sounds like Dodgers-Yankees and Pirates-Guardians are the games most impacted among those on the main docket, so we’ll see what happens.
As always, if you haven’t already, I suggest checking out our MLB DFS sims, which help you build +EV lineups you can enter right into GPPs. This isn’t an ordinary optimizer just building you the highest-projected lineup. It can do that, but its best feature is the sim aspect. We’ve also added some portfolio features that help with diversification, and we’re adding new shit all the time. Try it out!
Also, I saw the old pigeon lady from Home Alone 2 died today. She was 81. The most shocking part of that is that she was still alive, and that she wasn’t 81 when they filmed that movie back in 1992. In fact, she was 47. Life was hard back then, I guess.
Anyway, lots of games to talk about, so I guess we should talk about them.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers for Friday (7/17)
- Chris Sale ($10,000, vs. Rangers)
- Gavin Williams ($8,800, vs. Pirates)
- Reid Detmers ($7,300, vs. Tigers)
- Jared Jones ($7,200, at Guardians)
- Troy Melton ($8,700, at Angels)
- Bryce Miller ($9,900, vs. Giants)
- Landen Roupp ($8,000, at Mariners)
- Peter Lambert ($8,100, vs. Orioles)
- Cade Cavalli ($7,200, at A’s)
- Logan Henderson ($9,000, vs. Marlins)
The headliner on this slate is Chris Sale, who checks in at $10,000 for a home matchup against Texas. Sale is now 37, nearly as old as the Home Alone 2 pigeon lady was in 1992, yet he’s still near the top of his game. His 3.12 SIERA suggests his 2.20 ERA is a little fluky, while his 29% K-rate is down a bit from last year’s 32.4% clip. Sale’s swinging strike rate and Stuff+ numbers are actually better than they were last year, so, maybe, there are a few more Ks in the offing for him.
The Rangers aren’t the greatest matchup. Texas is hitting for power (.206 ISO, .372 wOBA) against lefties, though there are also some Ks in there (22.1% vs. LHP). I trust Sale’s skills more than I trust those Texas numbers, and I hardly think his $10,000 salary is problematic. He’s expensive, but not that expensive, and he’s the clear-cut SP1, even at what should be very high ownership.
Weather permitting, I have lots of interest in Gavin Williams and Jared Jones in that PIT-CLE affair. Williams is quite erratic, as we know, but the numbers are excellent across the board. His 3.32 SIERA beats his 3.82 ERA, while his 29.1% K-rate is right on par with Sale’s. Williams (8%) has a higher walk rate, but an 8% walk rate is right around league average. The Pirates (.181 ISO, .355 wOBA) are much-improved offensively, and they are pretty patient (9.8% walks) against righties. There’s always some risk with Williams, but I also think $8,800 is a bit of a discount.
Jones has a middling 4.37 ERA, but the 3.52 SIERA tells a different story. His swinging strike rate (14.2%) is higher than Sale’s or Williams’, so his current 27.1% strikeout rate might be lower than it should be. This is also a terrific matchup. Not so much for Ks (19.9% vs. RHP), but the Guardians just don’t have much thunder in the lineup right now (.138 ISO, .307 wOBA) with Jose Ramirez still sidelined. It’s worth noting Jones has allowed quite a bit of power to lefties (.234 ISO, 9.4% barrels), and Cleveland’s lineup is almost exclusively left-handed. There are still only a couple of LHBs you’re really worried about, so I like Jones quite a bit at his $7,200 price point.
Reid Detmers is a similar case. His 3.60 SIERA is quite a bit better than his 4.39 ERA, and he’s another good source of Ks (27.2%). He’s had bad luck with stranding baserunners, which is probably an indictment of the Angels’ shitty defense behind him. The Tigers are quite patient (11.8% walks vs. LHP), but that’s really their only strength. They’re not hitting for much power (.146 ISO) and they strike out at a decent clip (23%). Plus, Detmers is only $7,300. Yet another strong play.
I guess we can talk about Bryce Miller, who’s just behind Sale at $9,900 for a home matchup against the Giants. Seattle is a great pitching environment, while Miller’s numbers this season (30.2% Ks, 3.7% walks, 2.85 SIERA) are terrific. We’re still dealing with a fairly limited sample, though, and that 30.2% K-rate is quite a bit higher than his 23.2% career mark. I think he’s probably Just Very Good Now, but it does give me some pause, even though the underlying numbers do back up his improvement.
The Giants have been quietly good offensively for a while now (.186 ISO, .342 wOBA vs. RHP). There are some Ks here, though, and their overall strikeout rate is a bit deflated by the super-low K-rates of Luis Arraez (2.1%) and Jung Hoo Lee (7.6%). I think Miller is fine, but I just prefer the significantly cheaper options we’ve already discussed. I’d also rather just plop down the extra $100 for Sale if I’m shopping here.
Logan Henderson was on the IL for a couple of months before returning just before the All-Star break. He threw 76 pitches in that one, so maybe 85-90 is in play tonight at home against the Marlins. The right-hander has a career 31.9% K-rate at the MLB level, which jives with the 30.6% mark we’ve seen so far this season in limited innings. He seems like a stud. We’re used to picking on the Marlins, but the Fish have been pretty solid offensively this season (.339 wOBA, 17.1% Ks, .161 ISO vs. RHP). Henderson is playable at $9,000. I expect him to put up a decent outing, but we can get similar options for less on this slate.
Another cheapie on the radar is Cade Cavalli at $7,200. He gets a big park hit going into Sacramento, but the Athletics are a very beatable lineup right now with Brent Rooker and Nick Kurtz on the IL. What’s left has a collective .136 ISO and .313 wOBA against RHP, which is downright Guardiansish. Cavalli’s strikeout stuff is decent (25.4%), especially for that salary. I’d rather get to Jones and Detmers in this range, but I’d expect Cavalli to be the lowest-owned of the trio, and he’s not that different from the others.
Troy Melton gets a mention just because he’s facing the Angels, and we can always pick on the high-strikeout Halos (25% vs. RHP). Melton isn’t much of a strikeouts guy (21.7%), he’s more of a control/groundballs type. He’s also $8,700, which is very clearly an overpay in spite of the favorable matchup. More like Troy Meh-lton.
Rockies legend Peter Lambert continues to pitch pretty well for Houston. The issue is his 3.14 ERA looks fake compared to his 4.28 SIERA. He’s shown okay strikeout ability (22.9%) along with some shaky control (9.3% walks). The Orioles will do some striking out (24.2%), but they’ll also do some walking (11.2% vs. RHP). It’s a boom/bust pitcher in a boom/bust matchup. If he were in the $7,000 range I’d have more interest, but he’s $8,100.
SP Rankings
- Sale
- Williams
- Jones
- Detmers
- Henderson
- Cavalli
- Miller
- Lambert
- Melton
- Roupp
Best MLB DFS Stacks (7/17)
- Padres (at Seth Lugo)
- Twins (at Colin Rea)
- Reds (at Gabriel Hughes)
- Tigers (at Reid Detmers)
- Cardinals (at Merrill Kelly)
- Cubs (vs. Bailey Ober)
- DBax (vs. Michael McGreevy)
- Blue Jays (vs. Anthony Kay)
- Dodgers (at Gerrit Cole)
- Yankees (vs. Roki Sasaki)
- Braves (vs. Cal Quantrill)
- Astros (vs. Dean Kremer)
- Rockies (vs. Brady Singer)
Friends, this is way too many offenses. It’s a huge slate, so it is what it is.
Seth Lugo is another guy nearly as old as pigeon lady, and he seems pretty washed. His 4.56 ERA is justified. Whatever strikeout ability he used to have is gone. He doesn’t miss bats, and his Stuff+ numbers are the worst of his career. RHBs (11.2% barrels, .230 ISO) have really lit him up, though lefties (9.5% barrels, .171 ISO) have fared just fine. There’s also good hitting weather in KC.
The issue? The Padres are also shit, of course. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Xander Bogaerts all look like shells of themselves. Manny Machado, Gavin Sheets, and Ty France have solid numbers, however. I don’t mind getting to the Padres, but I’ll be more reluctant if they attract any sort of real ownership.
Both sides of the Dodgers-Yankees game are interesting if they’re allowed to play through the smoke. Gerrit Cole hasn’t been bad post-injury, but he also doesn’t look like the old version of himself. I guess he is the old version of himself, I mean he doesn’t look like the younger version of himself, from the olden days. Or something. LHBs (.234 ISO) have hit for power against him, and Yankee Stadium boosts lefty power in the first place. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, Tommy Edman, and Dalton Rushing all have the platoon edge.
Similar story for the Yankees against the erratic Roki Sasaki. This team is laden with lefty power, though Sasaki’s power issues haven’t been limited to lefties. Roki is always a candidate to just walk everyone, but I’ll take my chances with the Bombers here – Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Jasson Dominguez, Paul Goldschmidt, and even Ryan McMahon all have above-average power numbers this season vs. RHP.
I suppose I should mention it’s also a Coors slate, and the Reds are in town. Gabriel Hughes is a decent prospect for Colorado, but this will be just his 3rd MLB outing. He’s a right-hander who projects for a typical platoon split. Cincy isn’t generally as imposing against RHP, but Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, JJ Bleday, Nate Lowe, Eugenio Suarez, and Spencer Steer all look pretty good. I assume they’ll be the chalk.
Brady Singer looked like a punching bag early in the season, but he’s improved quite a bit over the past month, which isn’t a surprise considering he was never that terrible before. It’s still Coors, though, and the Rockies (.206 ISO, .350 wOBA) have actually been a pretty potent offense vs. RHP. Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfield, Kyle Karros, and Cole Carrigg all have ISOs of over .200 against righties this season. I like it!
We also have decent hitting weather at Wrigley. Not amazing, but still positive. Bailey Ober continues to look like a Hittable Dweeb against lefties (13.9% Ks, 12.4% barrels, .272 ISO, .327 wOBA), so Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Michael Conforto grade out pretty well. Think I prefer the Cubs as a mini. The Twins on the other side draw Colin Rea, who’s had more issues against RHBs. Good for Ryan Jeffers and Royce Lewis, though I’m still happy to get to Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, and Alan Roden (?) from the left.
I’m into Detmers, but the Tigers also get a park boost here, and the Angels have a dreadful bullpen behind the left-hander. Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, and Matt Vierling is a fine mini-stack. Detmers has some reverse splits historically, keeping Kevin McGonigle and Riley Greene in play for full stacks.
Cal Quantrill isn’t very good, especially against lefties – Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, and Ozzie Albies will swing it from the better side of the plate.
Dean Kremer has been abused by hitters from both sides despite decent strikeout rates and a low walk rate. Yordan Alvarez, come on down. Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Cam Smith, and LaMonte Wade Jr. next up in full stacks for Houston.
I suppose Anthony Kay is not a gas can, but he has pretty mediocre numbers vs. RHBs, which puts Ernie Clement, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Kazuma Okamoto on my radar from the Jays.
The Merrill Kelly/Michael McGreevy matchup in Arizona is exploitable with bats, too. We like lefties against McGreevy – Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo. The withering corpse of Max Kepler is also on this team, apparently.
We can fire up anyone against Kelly, who, like Lugo and the pigeon lady, is old and washed. JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, and Lars Nootbaar have the best numbers among Cardinal bats.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply