Hello. It’s May 21st, a Thursday. Major League Baseball tends to use Thursday as a travel day, so there are only a handful of games on the schedule. That means just a 4-game main slate starting a bit earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET.
Is it a good slate? Probably not, but let’s find out together. If you’re looking for a winning edge, be sure to check out our awesome MLB DFS optimizer, which you can try out for free on a 7-day trial.
Off we go.
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (5/21)
- Spencer Strider ($10,000, at MIA)
- Jose Soriano ($9,500, vs. ATH)
- Sandy Alcantara ($8,200, vs. ATL)
- Carlos Rodon ($7,700, vs. TOR)
- Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,500, vs. COL)
- Luis Severino ($6,500, at LAA)
This isn’t a terrible group of pitchers for such a small slate, which, I suppose, is a compliment?
Spencer Strider is the most expensive arm on the board at $10,000 for a date with the Marlins in Miami. The right-hander has a shiny 31% K-rate through 3 starts, albeit next to an ugly 17.2% walk rate. High strikeouts and walks have always been hallmarks of Strider’s game, but his Stuff+ numbers are still way down from where they were before he underwent Tommy John a couple of years ago.
Miami is a nice place to pitch, and the Marlins are a weird mix of high-contact and high-strikeout bats. They’re also just not hitting for any power against righties (.133 ISO). While I still think Strider can be an above-average strikeout arm, I don’t think his current 31% strikeout rate is the real deal. All things considered, I think he’s playable, but I’m not geeked to be paying $10,000.
Jose Soriano is one of the league’s breakout aces, and he’ll face the A’s at home. He’s slowed down a little in recent starts after a blazing-hot run to open the campaign, but his overall numbers remain excellent (27.9% Ks, 51% groundballs). Control (10.4% walks) has always been a trouble spot for him, and this year lefties have barreled him up pretty well (11.4%). Soriano’s heavy groundball style means he still doesn’t allow much power, though.
We know the A’s have a lot of thunder atop the lineup, and they’re not doing much whiffing (18.9%) against right-handed pitching, either. I trust Soriano’s skills, but there’s boom/bust potential here at $9,500.
After Strider and Soriano, everyone’s cheap. Sandy Alcantara is next up at $8,200 for a matchup against Atlanta at home. Like Strider, this is a former ace who hasn’t looked the same post-injury. Alcantara is still solid in real life (3.53 ERA), but his 4.39 SIERA is mediocre. He just isn’t striking guys out anymore (16.9%), and he’s instead relying on soft-hit groundballs (49.3%). Not only are the Braves not a high-groundball offense, but they’re also not prone to swings and misses. I would rather pay $8,200 for Sandy than $10,000 for Strider, but I Do Not Love It.
Carlos Rodon is yet another pitcher returning from recent injuries. The 26.3% K-rate looks about right, while his 21.1% walk rate is…disgusting? That’ll come down, but he did walk nearly 10% of right-handed hitters last year. The issue, as always, with the Blue Jays is that they’re a pretty low-strikeout offense overall vs. left-handers (20%). The flip side is they’re banged up and not hitting for much power, either (.147 ISO).
I think Rodon is a solid play. $7,700 is an underpay, and we’re getting close to a full leash after he tossed 88 pitches in his last outing.
We’re likely to see some heavy Eduardo Rodriguez chalk thanks to his stellar matchup at home against the crappy Rockies. E-Rod isn’t even particularly good anymore, with a 4.72 SIERA, 17.5% strikeout rate, and a walk rate pushing 10%. Of course, the Rockies are the great equalizer. This team has a collective strikeout rate of nearly 31% against lefties, and no power (.119 ISO). That’s really the case for Rodriguez, who’s also an affordable $7,500 on a small slate. I will have plenty of exposure, but I also plan to attack him early and often with the Colorado bats.
The last name worth a mention is Luis Severino at $6,500 on the road in Anaheim. Severino has been consistently better on the road since coming to the A’s, while the Angels (28%) are one of the highest-K offenses in the league vs. right-handed pitching. Anaheim has a lot of power, but $6,500 is an awfully cheap salary for a pitcher in this spot. I think he’s a solid play. Like with E-Rod, though, I’ll be stacking against him plenty.
SP Rankings
- Soriano
- Rodriguez
- Rodon
- Severino
- Alcantara
- Strider
Top MLB DFS Stacks for May 21
- DBax (vs. Zach Agnos/bullpen)
- Yankees (vs. Braydon Fisher/Spencer Miles)
- Marlins (vs. Spencer Strider)
- Rockies (at E-Rod)
- Angels (vs. Luis Severino)
- Blue Jays (at Carlos Rodon)
- A’s (at Jose Soriano)
- Braves (at Sandy Alcantara)
Yep, that’s all of ’em. I assume the chalk of the slate will be the DBax against Zach Agnos and the Colorado bullpen. Agnos has pitched 13 times out of that very pen this season, and this will be his first start. That he only had a 15.6% strikeout rate as a reliever is Not Great, Bob, and his overall numbers against hitters from both sides over the past couple of seasons aren’t, either.
The Rockies’ bullpen is heavy on right-handers, so the left-handed DBax stand out the most – Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Ildemaro Vargas, Adrian Del Castillo. I don’t care too much, though, as Agnos hasn’t been great against righties, and, again, not all righties are created equal in the first place. Nolan Arenado, Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel, and anyone else cracking the lineup looks terrific, even into heavy ownership.
Arizona will be chalk, but ownership beyond that should be pretty spread out. If you are playing Arizona, I think the way to do it in GPPs is to hunt leverage with your other bats.
I expect Strider to get some default ownership tonight, so getting to Miami on the other side of the matchup is logical. Left-handed hitters have an 11.1% barrel rate against him early in the season, and LHBs had some success last year, as well. Kyle Stowers, Liam Hicks, Xavier Edwards, Owen Caisee, and Jakob Marsee will all swing it from the left side here.
There will be a ton of lineups pairing E-Rod with his DBax teammates, so playing Arizona bats with some Rockies looks pretty good, too. Hunter Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar, and Mickey Moniak have double-digit barrel rates against southpaws this season. Moniak and Jake McCarthy are particularly interesting plays lefty-lefty, as Rodriguez has had a reverse split from the left side for most of his career. This team sucks, but, hey, E-Rod kinda does, too.
I suppose the Yanks will also be somewhat popular despite facing something resembling a bullpen game for Toronto. Spencer Miles has some groundball skills, but that’s about it. Left-handed Yankees and Aaron Judge almost always grade out well – Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, and Cody Bellinger look the best, I suppose. Trent Grisham, too, if he returns after leaving last night’s game injured. I’d rather eat Arizona chalk than New York chalk tonight, as the Jays’ pen is pretty good, and Miles will probably only be out there for around 60 pitches after Braydon Fisher opens the game.
I’m good with Toronto’s righty power bats against Rodon, a flyball pitcher who’s yielded some right-handed power over the years – George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero, and Kazuma Okamoto make for a solid 3-man. Lenyn Sosa and Ernie Clement are next on the list if you’d rather go full stacking.
You’re allowed to play the Braves, particularly the lefties, against Alcantara. This is my least favorite stack on the day, though.
Finally, both offenses in the ATH/LAA game are playable, as both of these pitchers should be somewhat popular. I’d rather play the Angels against Severino, of course, while the A’s will be lower-owned against the tougher Soriano. Because the Angels’ lefties are butt, I’m still starting with Trout, Neto, Adell, and Soler, but I don’t mind Lowe, Schanuel, or Moncada.
For the A’s, it’s power hunting with Shea Langerliers, Nick Kurtz, Carlos Cortes, Tyler Soderstrom, and Brent Rooker. I think a full stack is viable in large fields, though I’d only go with a mini-stack or one-offs in single-entry.
Stack Confidence-o-Meter
- DBax
- Angels
- Rockies
- Blue Jays
- Yankees
- Marlins
- A’s
- Braves
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply