Howdy! It’s Tuesday, the most vibeless day of the weekly calendar. Tuesdays occasionally feel like Mondays, and I can think of no more damning an indictment than that.
On this day in history, Anne Boleyn was beheaded for treason, adultery, and, worst of all, incest. At least your May 19 is probably going better than her last May 19 did.
Anyway, can’t say I woke up today and expected to write “incest” in a baseball article, but life is a rich tapestry. On a completely separate note, be sure to check out our kick-ass DFS optimizer, which you can access on a free 7-day trial before a $29.99/month subscription kicks in.
Let’s do the baseball.
Top MLB DFS Pitchers for Tuesday (5/19)
- Jacob Misiorowski ($11,000, at CHC)
- Dylan Cease ($10,000, at NYY)
- Will Warren ($9,000, vs. TOR)
- Emmet Sheehan ($8,500, at SD)
- Zebby Matthews ($8,200, vs. HOU)
- Ranger Suarez ($8,000, at KC)
- Ben Brown ($7,700, vs. MIL)
- Reid Detmers ($7,300, vs. ATH)
- Ryne Nelson ($6,700, vs. SF)
This pitching slate looks pretty tasty, which is a weird way to describe a DFS slate, but it’s the first word that came to mind, so I guess I’m hungry. Jacob Misiorowski is the best DFS pitcher in the league these days, and he gets a matchup at Wrigley against the Cubs, with neither wind helping nor hindering. His 39.6% K-rate looks entirely legit, and his 8.4% walk rate is down 3% from last season. His 2.26 SIERA lines up with his 2.12 ERA. It’s always really just a matter of whether Misiorowski walks too many guys, but so far this season, he hasn’t been.
The Cubs have been solid offensively this season and don’t strike out a lot (20.1%), plus they are quite patient (11.8% walks). Miz won’t come cheap at $11,000, but he’s also the pitcher most likely to put up a score you can’t win without. Let’s see what else is out there.
Dylan Cease ($10,000) gets a tough draw on the road in New York. These guys are cut from the same cloth, with loads of Ks (34.6%) and too many walks (9.7%). The Yanks (13.7%) are the highest-walk team in the league, but they’re also more strikeout-prone (23.8%) than the Cubs. Cease has the strikeout stuff working against hitters of either handedness, which is key for this matchup. It’s tough to tell whether the $1,000 discrepancy will factor in, but I kinda expect Misiorowski to be the chalkier of the two. The field just doesn’t like to play against the Yankees. If that’s the case, Cease looks like a phenomenal tournament play on this slate, and I’d be tempted to favor Cease even if they were the same salary.
Will Warren takes the ball on the other side of the matchup at home to Toronto. Warren has really cleaned up the walks (6.1%) while improving his K-rate (29.8%), which is no small feat. His overall numbers are better against RHBs. The Jays can throw 5 lefties at him, but the only ones you’re really nervous about are Daulton Varsho and Jesus Sanchez. Toronto is still just a high-contact offense (18.5% Ks vs. RHP), but $9,000 is reasonably cheap for Warren’s skill set.
Yamamoto allowed just a run over 7 innings in San Diego last night, and Emmet Sheehan gets the ball in that spot tonight. Sheehan is another right-hander with solid strikeout numbers (28%) against hitters from both sides, but he’s allowed a lot of power to LHBs early in the season. The good thing, other than pitching in pitcher-friendly Petco, is that the Padres may only have a couple of LHBs in there against him. San Diego is also striking out more this year (23.6% vs. RHP), and Sheehan is only $8,500. His 3.16 SIERA and 3.73 xERA suggest his 4.54 ERA is incredibly unlucky, and that fortune will turn. Dollar for dollar, he might be my favorite play on the slate.
Zebby Matthews turned in a terrific effort in his season debut last week, and he earned another turn tonight against Houston. His 24.5% career strikeout rate at the MLB level is solid, and his ERAs have always been inflated compared to his SIERA, which is under 4.00 for his career. I think Matthews is solid, but the Astros offense has been pretty good against RHP (.200 ISO, .350 wOBA) despite a rash of injuries. Matthews is playable, just in large-field stuff.
Ranger Suarez remains real-life good, with a 23.7% K-rate, low walks, and a 3.59 SIERA. His groundball rate is down by 11% this year compared to his career mark, which is weird, while Kansas City is a low-strikeout lot against lefties (19.3%). It’s not an imposing offense, but Suarez has also failed to even crack 80 pitches in 3 of his last 4 starts despite good results. He randomly threw 105 pitches in the other game. I don’t really know what’s going on with his leash, but they’ve had a quick enough hook with Suarez to give me some pause.
Ben Brown is another guy who’s shown some strikeout potential (26.6%) in limited MLB duty over the past few seasons. The Cubs are building him back up, so 80 pitches is probably close to his ceiling after he tossed 65 in his most recent outing. The Brewers are light on power (.144 ISO), but also light on Ks (18.8%). I’m not sure we need to roll the dice on a pitcher with a pretty firm pitch cap, outside of multi-entry.
Reid Detmers has pitched well since returning to the Angels’ rotation, with a 25% strikeout rate and an average 8% walk rate. The Athletics profile better against righties. Against lefties, they’re striking out more than 26% of the time with underwhelming power numbers (.154 ISO, 7.8% barrels). Detmers also doesn’t have the leash concerns several other pitchers in this range do, and he’s only $7,300. He’ll probably be chalky, but he’s simply too cheap.
The last pitcher worth a shout is Ryne Nelson at home against the crappy Giants. Nelson has allowed plenty of power this season along with a fairly average 22.4% K-rate. The Giants have some strikeouts in there (21.6%) and very limited power vs. right-handed pitching. Nelson is better than his $6,700 salary indicates, so he’s a solid play if you need further salary relief.
SP Rankings
- Sheehan
- Cease
- Misiorowski
- Detmers
- Nelson
- Warren
- Suarez
- Brown
- Zebby
Top MLB DFS Stacks Today
- Angels (vs. Jacob Lopez)
- Rangers (at Peralta/Gordon)
- Rockies (vs. Alexander/Rocker)
- Red Sox (at Bailey Falter/bullpen)
- Pirates (at Matthew Liberatore)
- Twins (vs. Lance McCullers Jr.)
- Giants (at Ryne Nelson)
- Dodgers (at Griffin Canning)
- Mariners (vs. Anthony Kay)
Coors Field predictably underwhelmed last night, and we’ll see how that shit goes tonight. The Rockies are apparently starting LHP Sammy Peralta, while RHP Tanner Gordon is the most likely candidate to pitch in bulk relief. Gordon has no plus skills beyond control. His career strikeout rate is under 20%. His career groundball rate is under 40%. He’s hurling the ball up there and hoping he doesn’t get blasted. He has also been neutral from a splits standpoint.
The problem? The Rangers are Quite Bad offensively, and Corey Seager is on the injured list. Brandon Nimmo, Jake Burger, and Evan Carter have the highest barrel rates of the remaining Rangers vs. RHP, so that’s where I’d start. Ezequiel Duran and Josh Jung should hit high in the order. Joc Pederson used to have power, and maybe he can find some here against a low-strikeout pitcher in Coors. I suspect this team will be chalky, but I like it quite a bit more than I did yesterday when I wasn’t really interested.
The Rockies get a similar situation with LHP Tyler Alexander likely to open ahead of RHP Kumar Rocker. They’re going with the Nickeil Alexander-Rocker arrangement. Rocker has passable numbers and a high groundball rate vs. RHBs, but he has yet to figure out lefties. Mickey Moniak is gonna look awesome here, while the rest of the Rockies’ left-handed bats are lacking. Willi Castro, TJ Rumfield, and Jake McCarthy will have the platoon edge over Rocker. I’d still probably make Hunter Goodman a priority, as Rocker is only striking out 16% of his fellow righties.
I think we could see some ownership on the Angels, but it’s probably justified. Jacob Lopez has been horrendous this year, with a walk rate (14.2%) nearly as high as his K-rate (15.8%). RHBs have also mashed him to the tune of a .250 ISO and a .372 wOBA. This all lines up excellently for the Angels’ cavalcade of power righties – Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Jo Adell, and Jorge Soler. I don’t really know why Logan O’Hoppe stopped hitting, but I’ll still play him in stacks along with Vaughn Grissom, Oswald Peraza, and Jose Siri. While I’m kinda concerned about the potential for Angels Chalk Night, this might be my favorite spot regardless.
The Twins get Lance McCullers Jr. ahead of the Astros’ dreadful bullpen. McCullers has been particularly awful against lefties this season, so I’m into Kody Clemens, Trevor Larnach, and Josh Bell from the left side, while it sounds like Byron Buxton is back. This lineup is gross, so a mini-stack is probably the way to go.
I continue to hate-stack the Red Sox and Giants, and both continue to betray my undying loyalty. Boston will get LHP Bailey Falter to begin the game, but he probably won’t go more than 3-4 innings, tops. After that we’re picking on the bullpen, which isn’t my cup of tea. Willson Contreras and Ceddane Rafaela are the best of the Boston RHBs vs. Falter, while Jarren Duran, Mickey Gasper, and Wilyer Abreu are next up for full stacks. I’d rather mini-stack this team, similar to yesterday.
Ryne Nelson could catch some ownership, so I don’t mind looking to the Giants for a little leverage. Nelson has allowed a lot of power to hitters from both sides, while most of his Ks come against RHBs. I think that makes Rafael Devers one of the slate’s best one-offs if you don’t have the #courage to fully stack San Francisco. Casey Schmitt, Matt Chapman, and Luis Arraez are probably next, but meh.
Matthew Liberatore is one of the slate’s weaker pitchers, so we can look to the Pirates a little. Pittsburgh hasn’t been very good against left-handers, but a mini-stack with guys like Konnor Griffin, Marcell Ozuna, Bryan Reynolds, Nick Gonzales, or Jhostynxon Garcia is viable. That’s right, Jhostynxon. I will note Liberatore has been Extra Bad against lefties this season, so Oneil Cruz and Brandon Lowe are very sneaky targets if they crack the 9.
The Dodgers flatlined last night against Michael King and the lights-out San Diego bullpen. Griffin Canning has an ERA north of 10.00 through 3 outings with the Padres, though he’s probably been more unlucky than outright terrible. I’m still not thrilled to stack in this ballpark with the Padres’ bullpen lurking, but there is enough cheap pitching to make stacking the Dodgers viable – Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez all have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP.
The Mariners get a lefty for the second straight night. This time it’s Anthony Kay, who might be the splitsiest pitcher in the sport. He has been utterly dominant against lefties, while his walk and barrel rates are both higher than his strikeout rate against righties. At least that makes it easy. Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Mitch Garver are your best bets among the right-handed Mariners. Cubs legend Patrick Wisdom is apparently on this team, and this guy has done nothing but strike out and hit dongs over the years. There’s pinch-hit risk with Wisdom and Rob Refsnyder, but they’re also dirt-cheap.
Other Stuff I Like
- Blue Jays LHBs vs. Warren – Varsho, Sanchez, Gimenez
- Astros mini-stack vs. Zebby – Alvarez, Walker, Pena, Cole
- Brewers LHBs vs. Brown – Yelich, Turang, Bauers
- Cardinals LHBs vs. Keller – Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church
- A’s RHBs vs. Detmers – Bangeliers, Rooker, Thomas, Gelof
- DBax LHBs vs. Roupp – Marte, Carroll, Perdomo
- Padres LHBs vs. Sheehan – The Law Office of Sheets & Merrill
- White Sox LHBs vs. Miller/Castillo – Murakami, Montgomery, Antonacci, Benintendi
- The Yankees
Stack Confidence-o-Meter
- Angels
- Rangers
- Mariners
- Rockies
- Pirates
- White Sox LHBs
- Dodgers
- A’s RHBs
- Cardinals LHBs
- Brewers LHBs
- Giants
- Twins
- Red Sox
- Blue Jays LHBs
- DBax LHBs
- Padres LHBs
- Astros mini
- The Yankees
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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