We have a massive Thursday Night Football game on our hands in week 16, with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks playing for first place in the NFC West.
These are two very good teams with a ton of explosive weapons, while the game has a modest 44.5 total. That’s to pay respect to both defenses, as well as the magnitude of this game. The previous meeting was an ugly 21-19 battle that went to the Rams, but based on that first game, we should prepare for a similar slugfest.
This is also obviously a tense divisional game on a short week, so really all bets are off. That said, I will look at the top TNF DFS picks for the Captain slot, and also look at some of my favorite GPP plays.
Top TNF DFS Picks for the Captain Slot
- Puka Nacua
- JSN
- Colby Parkinson
Puka had seven catches for 70 yards in the first meeting. This is a volume play, as he is going to get force-fed targets with Adams likely out. I don’t like the matchup at all, but the Rams pass a ton and he’s the guy they will focus on. He’s an elite Captain play, but he is also uber chalk.
JSN is the better play IMO. He has the slightly better matchup, his team tends to be more balanced, and nothing is really changing for him. He’s also coming in about half as owned. If you are paying at CPT, he’s the guy.
Parkinson has six touchdowns in his last six games. He has a big role even without the Adams news, but with Davante sidelined he’s an even better bet to get RZ targets. Seattle’s RZ defense is elite, but Parkinson did score on them last time and their one real defensive weakness is the tight end position (6th worst vs TEs).
I don’t hate the quarterbacks or the running backs just because they have strong roles, but this game does have a low total and two very good defenses. I am personally not super high on the RBs in terms of ceiling, while I can see the QBs underwhelming a bit.
TNF DFS GPP Picks
- Terrance Ferguson
- Konata Mumpfield
- Rashid Shaheed
- Kyren Williams
There are a lot of cheap guys we can consider, but these are my favorites. Parkinson is an awesome play, but Ferguson is a talented rookie that is playing 70% of the snaps. Seattle’s weakness is against tight ends. What if the Rams use Parkinson as a decoy near the goal-line and it’s his backup that scores on TNF? I’m willing to take that chance. Davis Allen is also in play, but I prefer Ferguson.
Mumpfield is in that Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell conversation, but unlike those guys he’s actually been playing lately. He scored a touchdown the last time the Rams missed one of their top WRs, too. He’s really cheap and was a playmaker in the preseason, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he popped up and played well here.
Shaheed is a big play threat that continues to get more and more involved with Seattle’s passing game. JSN is the safe bet to hit down the field, but that long Shaheed TD is so close I can taste it. With the Rams so focused on slowing down JSN, don’t be shocked if Shaheed breaks one deep.
Lastly, I will be a bit over-weight on Kyren. This is a huge game, so I think it’s very possible Blake Corum sees a reduced role. The matchup stinks, but with a proven RZ commodity in Davante out, the chances of Kyren punching in 1-2 scores increases expotentially.
My TNF DFS Strategy for Week 16
- Core: Puka and JSN in any combination
I don’t think there has to be a true core for NFL DFS Showdown slates, but I think getting Puka and JSN into most of your lineups is wise. These are absurdly high volume guys in a massive game, while Puka gets a boost with Davante doubtful to suit up.
Captaining either of them will be chalky. I’m not opposed to doing that, but if you do, you’ll need to try really hard to get different elsewhere in your TNF DFS lineups, especially if you pair them together on top of that.
There are certainly some nice leverage plays to consider, while you could also opt to Captain one of the quarterbacks and then just benefit from that stack that way. In cash games and SE I am probably just Captaining Puka and JSN, but if you’re entering a lot of lineups I’d look to punt a bit with secondary Rams receivers given Davante’s likely absence. Tutu, Mumpfield, and Whittington will all be viable.
L.A. backup tight ends will also be in play more than usual. Parkinson is the safe play, but guys like Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson are cheap punts that could see the field a decent amount.
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