Time seems to fly at double-speed when it’s football season, which is the only way to explain how it’s already Week 4. This will be the first time since Week 1 we don’t have a playable $4,000 starting quarterback, though Jaxson Dart ($4,500) isn’t far off for his NFL debut against the Chargers.
As we saw last week with the Cowboys-Bears clash, it looks like ownership may congregate around just a couple of games again this week. The IND-LAR and BAL-KC clashes are tied for the highest total on the board (48.5), while the terrible AFC South matchup between the winless Titans and Texans brings up the rear at just 38.5.
The following are a few of my favorite stacks for the Week 4 Sunday main slate on DraftKings.
Indianapolis Colts (at LAR)
The Colts find their way into this article for the second week in a row. I mentioned this game being tied for the highest total on the slate, and Indianapolis is a 3.5-point underdog in LA. The Rams’ defense does look like the real deal, but we can say the same of Indy’s surprisingly effective offense, led by Indiana Jones himself.
Jones’ years with the Giants were marred by a constant barrage of turnovers, but he has yet to give the ball away through his first 3 games with the Colts. He’s accounted for 6 total touchdowns, including 3 on the ground. Most importantly, we’re still getting a nice discount ($5,600) on a QB with legitimate rushing upside. That combination means you can play Jones without stacking, but his teammates are affordable, too. Jones is also averaging 9 yards per attempt, so he’s not checking it down nearly as frequently as he did during his Giants days.
Tyler Warren didn’t get there for us last week, but he continues to lead all Indy pass-catchers in target share (24.1%). The rookie is also still only $4,600, and I assume he’ll be among the more expensive tight end options before too long. Michael Pittman (21.8% targets) looks underpriced at $5,100. . Warren will be popular again because he’s a tight end, but Jones and his receivers are all projected for single-digit ownership. Alec Pierce won’t suit up this week, which potentially creates some extra value. I think Adonai Mitchell ($3,100) is the natural candidate to see more volume, while I’d expect the role for Josh Downs to remain fairly unchanged. Mitchell, despite not having flashed much yet, was a highly-rated prospect coming out of Texas last year. For such a cheap salary, I think he makes for a phenomenal punt play with GPP-winning upside. Mitchell should also get plenty of 1-on-1 matchups with the Rams likely committing more resources to trying to slow Warren and Pittman.
The Rams have been stingy against opposing running backs so far, but Jonathan Taylor is Jonathan Taylor. The fairly low volume he sees in the passing game generally gives him a lower floor on a PPR site like DK, but his ceiling is obviously slate-breaking. I have no issues pairing him with Jones if you want to try and grab as much of the Colts’ rushing TD equity as possible. They do have a 23-point implied team total, after all.
I wouldn’t say I’m ever excited to stack Indy, but the salaries make them hard to avoid yet again.
Los Angeles Rams (vs. IND)
The game stack won’t fly under the radar, but ownership is still generally spread out on such large Sunday slates. I think there’s a pretty fun way to build for this game without being too chalky, and you also retain quite a ceiling.
Matthew Stafford is a baller, and I’m as big a fan as the next fella, but he’s the kinda pocket passer that likely needs 300+ yards and 4+ TDs to win you a tournament, especially considering $5,900 isn’t mega-cheap. He’s capable of dropping that kind of stat line, but I’d rather just take the $300 discount with Jones and his rushing floor. As mentioned, some combination of Jones + Mitchell + Warren still leaves you with a ton of salary to spend?
Where should you spend it? You might as well pay up for Stafford’s high-volume, high-upside receivers. As we’ve seen, the WRs can get there even if their QB doesn’t. The way the Rams scheme to get Puka Nacua (37.6% targets) involved makes him about as matchup-proof as it gets. Designed runs, short screens, etc. $7,900 isn’t cheap, but he could be $9,000 at some point, especially once the TDs start to show up. Davante Adams is still attracting north of 31% of Stafford’s targets, and he’s gotten 8 redzone looks to just 1 for Puka. The Rams’ target tree only has 2 branches, and I have zero qualms about pairing Nacua and Adams even without the QB.
Kyren Williams is still logging 70+% of the Rams’ snaps on offense every week. While he hasn’t been great to start the season, he still has at least 17 carries and 2 targets in all 3 games. Plus, he’s $6,300. The Colts’ run defense could be a bit of a mirage, as they’ve essentially forced their foes to play from behind constantly so far.
The game stack builds itself. Jones + Mitchell + Adams + Puka + Warren still leaves you with $5,650 per position on DK.
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. CHI)
I expect the CHI-LV game to be somewhat popular, but not quite as chalky as last week’s DAL-CHI afternoon hammer. This one takes place in the dome in the desert, and there’s stuff to like about both sides.
I’ll start with the Raiders, who look pretty Raidersy so far with a 1-2 record despite a slew of new faces. I still have significant interest in Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers individually, but the spot sets up particularly well for Ashton Jeanty. Vegas has had a few difficult matchups to begin the season, and shaky O-line play can be blamed for the quiet start to Jeanty’s career.
Through 3 games, the Bears are yielding north of 3 yards per carry before contact. They’re giving it up on the ground in chunks. Even if the Raiders have a pathetic OL, they’re not quite as likely to get bullied by Chicago’s middling defensive front. Jeanty is a hard runner and we know he can hit holes. Those holes are much more likely to be there for him this week. With all of Omarion Hampton, Christian McCaffrey, and Cam Skattebo projected to be popular RBs, I’m a little skeptical Jeanty’s projected ownership will come in quite as high once contests start.
Meyers (25.2%) and Bowers (20.4%) are still generating most of Geno Smith’s targets, though Tre Tucker (19.4%) has played a notable role, especially after last week’s tournament-winning explosion out of nowhere. While Tucker is still affordably priced, he’s also very boom-bust. This is another stack I like playing without the QB.
Chicago Bears (at LV)
Alright, so Caleb Williams smashed as chalk last week thanks to the matchup with the Cowboys, and he’ll face another middling defense this Sunday in Las Vegas. Caleb isn’t pulling as much projected ownership this week, which is possibly a mistake.
The prime target here is Rome Odunze, who sure seems to have established himself as the WR1 ahead of DJ Moore. Odunze’s 28.4% target share is nearly twice as high as Moore’s, and he’s been Williams’ first read more often than not. Odunze also has an aDOT of 13, which is appealing given the Raiders’ vulnerability against downfield threats. Terry McLaurin (56 yards) and Luke McCaffrey (43) both sprung big plays downfield against the Raiders last week. Justin Herbert found Quentin Johnston for a 60-yard score against Vegas in Week 2. Hmm…think Ben Johnson might try to exploit that?
I think the other Bear on my primary radar will be D’Andre Swift against a Vegas defense also getting gouged via the ground game. The Raiders have struggled mightly against zone runs, and that happens to be how Swift gets most of his carries. Mix in a dusting of work in the pass game – 3+ targets in all 3 games – and you’ve got yourself a nice midrang e RB who could go overlooked.
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