Well, it’s about that time again. The weekend is nigh, which means we’re just a few hours from kicking off another jumbo Sunday NFL main slate. 13 games in all, and a handful of teams are already resorting to starting backup QBs because of injuries to the starters.
We also don’t have many superstar QBs from which to choose. None of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Patrick Mahomes is on the main slate, so maybe the cheapies will carry a little more appeal than they did last week.
Obviously, stacking can be a key component of building +EV GPP lineups. I’d stop short of saying playing a stack is an absolute must, but, generally, correlation is a lot more important than it is in a DFS sport like NBA. So, with that in mind, here are a few of my favorite stacks for Sunday’s main docket.
Indianapolis Colts (at TEN)
The Colts will leave the friendly confines of the dome for the first time this season for an intradivisional clash against the Titans in Nashville. Indy’s offense has been somewhat unstoppable through 2 games. The Colts have put 62 points on the board, which trails only Buffalo (through 3 games, of course), Baltimore, and Detroit. Pretty heady company for a team starting Daniel Jones.
We’re still early in the Indiana Jones era, but even his most fervent haters would probably admit he’s looked impressive to this point. He’s accounted for a total of 5 TDs already, 3 of which he’s scored with his legs. Jones also has yet to turn the ball over, which is a notable accomplishment for a guy who had some of the league’s butteriest fingers during his days in New York. The Colts are also letting him let it fly, as he’s averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt en route to 588 yards through the air. Throwing for more than 300 yards against that Denver defense last week was no small feat.
Jones’ DK salary is starting to rise, but maybe not quickly enough. He’s still only $5,400 ahead of this date against the Titans. On a slate with a couple of $4,000 punts (Marcus Mariota and Carson Wentz) along with some other chalky sub-$6,000 considerations (Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, CJ Stroud), it sure looks like Jones will fly under the radar from an ownership perspective. They’re all pretty strong plays individually, but guys like Prescott and Stroud, in particular, don’t bring the rushing TD equity we’ve seen with Jones. Around the goal line, they’ve been content to try and let him plunge his way in as opposed to handing it to Jonathan Taylor.
I don’t think stacking a guy like Jones at his salary is a must, but he does come with an obvious and cheap stacking partner, Tyler Warren ($4,400). Warren is arguably the best cheap value play on the slate at any position. If he’s going to come through in a big way, he’ll need help from Jones. We play GPPs hunting ceiling outcomes. If Warren finishes as the top-scoring tight end on the slate, there’s a fair chance Jones is also smashing his own affordable price point. So far, Warren’s 25.8% target share leads all Colts.
I think skinny-stacking Jones + Warren is enough. Michael Pittman Jr. is only $4,900 with a 21% target share, though, while Josh Downs ($4,400) and Alec Pierce ($4,300) also qualify as value options. I’d rank the WRs in that order in terms of priority. Positional scarcity at tight end makes Warren the clear top option if you do want a stacking partner for Jones, however.
Dallas Cowboys (at CHI)
The Cowboys’ defense sure does look like hot trash, but the offense is another story. That’s a recipe for weekly shootouts, as we saw last week in Dallas’ OT win over the Giants. This Cowboys-Bears game looks rife for fantasy goodness, so I’d expect plenty of ownership on both sides. As of now it looks like Caleb Williams and his pass-catchers are drawing more ownership than Dak Prescott stacks, so stacking the visitors looks pretty, pretty good.
CeeDee Lamb will be extremely popular, possibly the highest-owned expensive play on the slate this side of Christian McCaffrey. The projections say most people are choosing not to pair him with Prescott, so that’s an inefficiency I’d like to exploit. The Cowboys’ offense was wildly one-dimensional last year when they had no professional running backs of which to speak, but they look a little more potent in that regard with Javonte Williams off to a terrific start. Even with Williams giving the backfield some punch, though, the Cowboys have still thrown on 64% of their plays, good for the 7th-highest pass play percentage in the sport. They were 6th last year.
Unlike Jones, Prescott isn’t likely to add much value with rushing. While I’m fine playing Jones + 1 or by himself, I’d look to get extra correlation betwen Dak and his pass-catchers. If Prescott puts up a GPP-winning score, he’s likely going to need 3-5 touchdown passes with a boatload of yards through the air. As a result, he’s probably bringing some of his friends with him. All of it can’t go to CeeDee. George Pickens is up there with guys like Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, and DeVonta Smith among the most talented WR2s in the league, while Jake Ferguson has been a steady presence in this offense for several years now.
I think the best way to play Dak is with at least 2 of Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson. It takes some bravery, but fading Lamb’s ownership and pairing Prescott with just Pickens and Ferguson is pretty damn interesting, too. If the Bears commit all of their resources to not letting CeeDee beat them – and that chalk fails – Prescott isn’t automatically doomed. Pickens ($5,900) and Ferguson ($4,000) are also pretty cheap, so you can still get a high-upside Dallas stack, just with a different expensive one-off (McCaffrey? Ja’Marr Chase?) in place of Lamb.
Arizona Cardinals (at SF)
The Cardinals have been a fairly popular stack through each of the first 2 weeks thanks to cushy matchups in domes against shitty foes in the Saints and Panthers. They didn’t exactly pass either test with flying colors, though, and it looks like they’ll be totally unowned this Sunday when they head to NorCal to take on the Niners.
I don’t know about you, but I see “at 49ers” and still think this is a daunting matchup, but this isn’t exactly the same juggernaut it was a couple of years ago. Arizona still has a healthy 21.25 implied team total, and the 49ers are favored by just a field goal. Trey McBride ($5,700) will attract some rostership because he and Brock Bowers appear to be the only expensive tight ends on the entire slate. That’s about it, though, as far as popular Cardinals go.
As mentioned, we’re also lacking expensive QBs, especially those who will use their legs. Jalen Hurts is more of a TD vulture than an open-field rusher. Justin Herbert will scamper on occasion, but the other running QBs (Jones, Mariota, etc.) are cheap. Kyler Murray is sitting there at $6,100 and pulling no ownership whatsoever. Simply pairing him with McBride is one very easy way to immediately differentiate yourself from the sea of McBride lineups in your contest. As I said with Warren: If McBride is a guy you have to have to win GPPs this week, he’ll likely share the spoils with his QB.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has yet to live up to the pre-draft hype, but he’s $5,600 and still attracting better than 20% of Kyler’s throws on the season. The 3-man Arizona stack is viable, especially in larger-field, but I’d lean toward pairing Murray with one or the other.
Murray also has 7 carries in each of the first 2 games, which is a welcome sign after he averaged just 4.5 totes per game in 2024. In his most recent game in Santa Clara – last October – Murray rushed 7 times for 83 yards with a TD.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. DEN)
It’s early, but the list of teams that have looked better than the Chargers through a couple of games is very short. LA has opened the season with back-to-back divisional wins over the Chiefs and Raiders, and they’ll play their home opener this Sunday against another AFC West rival, Denver. The Bolts were annoyingly run-happy last season in Jim Harbaugh’s first with the team despite having a mediocre crop of running backs behind their superstar quarterback.
Their pass play percentage (56%) has only moderatly improved through a couple of games this year, but Justin Herbert looks incredible. He’s completed better than 72% of his throws for 560 yards with 5 TDs and no interceptions, while he’s also racked up 16 carries for 63 more yards. The Broncos’ defense is talented, but we did see them struggle mightily on the road last week in Indianapolis.
The game this week in LA has some of the more favorable conditions on the slate thanks to the semi-dome. LAC also had a mid-20s total. Herbert has a lot of weapons, but the only one pulling ownership is Keenan Allen at $4,700. Allen’s turned back the clock with a 28% target share since his return, and he’s found paydirt in back-to-back games. He’s too cheap for the role he’s playing, and his rapport with Herbert isn’t anything new. Very good play, even at ownership.
Again, simply playing the QB along with the chalk pass-catcher is a way to get different enough with Herbert coming in around just 6% pOWN. Quentin Johnston ($5,400) is an affordable deep threat/redzone target, while there are not many people paying up for a $6,800 Ladd McConkey. The game logs suggest Allen’s knifing into McConkey’s target share, but Ladd still has 11 catches on 14 looks. It’s not like he’s getting phased out.
I’m good with Herbert + Allen, but one fun way to get leverage on Allen’s ownership is by fading him and pairing Herbert with McConkey instead.
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