Welcome to another NBA DFS slate, as Thursday offers a solid six-game main slate at DraftKings. The Core was solid yesterday, as Ayo smashed and Julius Randle and Bones Hyland were both fine.
Today’s NBA DFS picks require a lot of news and some adjusting before we have a clear picture. I’ll get you ready for the main slate at DraftKings, however, updating the key plays you’ll want a lot of shares of as we approach lock. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Kawhi Leonard, Donovan Mitchell, and all the Lakers.
- Best value plays: Pistons – LeVert, Jenkins, etc.
- Top game to attack: Lakers vs. Heat – 241.5 total with a 3.5-point spread.
- Top stud: Luka & Wemby. Only two options projecting above 50 fps currently.
- Blowout risks: Pistons vs. Wizards (13.5), Cavs vs. Bulls (12), and Suns vs. Spurs (9.5).
NBA DFS Top Picks for Thursday (updated 6:50 PM ET)
- Daniss Jenkins ($5k)
- Jordan Miller
- Goga Bitadze ($3.6k)
- Evan Mobley ($8.7k)
Update: No WCJ so as long as he starts Goga looks like a great punt. There’s some volatility there and the Hornets aren’t the greatest draw, but he’s an obvious value and a good per minute producer. Adding Mobley, who is a tough fade if Spida sits. Evan always looks good when Allen is out but adding Spida to the mix greatly spikes his usage, floor, and ceiling. Plus he’s facing the Bulls! Still need news and we could get more value.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
I’ll start with this three-pack of values, simply because the big decision is going to be to Luka or not to Luka. Wemby also exists, but I’m not oblivious to the idea that a more balanced build makes for a better overall lineup.
Guys like Evan Mobley, Kawhi Leonard, and Austin Reaves may all stand out in balanced builds. Of course, going that route hinges on the statuses of Spida, Kawhi, and King James. My personal preference is to just go get Luka, but no matter which route you prefer, these three cheap guys will probably be the foundation to your builds.
Jenkins is walking into a huge role with Cade out. I will admit that I don’t love the minutes he got last time out, but that game also ended up blowing out. Ideally he starts here, but he is going to look good no matter what and we can also give a long, hard look at guys like Marcus Sasser, Duncan Robinson, Caris LeVert, and Kevin Huerter.
Sam Merrill looks like a solid value play if Donovan Mitchell takes the night off. Jarrett Allen is also still out, so the Cavs can roll out more guards with Evan Mobley at the five. Just keep in mind that Max Strus is back and guys like Keon Ellis, Dennis Schroder, and Jaylon Tyson all still exist.
Dunn is a good value with Darius Garland set to miss this game and he becomes a very tough fade if Kawhi (now Q) also misses. In the event Kawhi is out, Jordan Miller and Kobe Sanders also heat up as solid values in a smash spot versus New Orleans.
The Lakers could be a team we circle back to, one way or another. They’ve played a lot lately and just played last night, so a lot of their key guys could end up taking the night off.
- 🟢 SAFE – Evan Mobley. Blowout risk exists but if Spida is out he’s a smash play.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Everyone else. Low floors but high ceilings if all goes well.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 3/19
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
- Lakers vs. Heat (241.5 total)
The Wizards game is extremely stackable from a sheer salary perspective. It has a big spread, but if it can stay close that’s a good game to pull pieces from.
The Clippers vs. Pelicans game gets very interesting if Kawhi Leonard sits this one out. It looks good regardless, but Kawhi sitting would open up a lot of compelling Clippers value.
The best overall game is easily the Lakers vs. the Heat, though. Close spread, highest total of the slate, and we have Luka here. If LeBron rests then Austin Reaves looks awesome and a lot of the Lakers value also will pop. Miami plays very fast, so the Lake Show stands out even if they’re on the road and possibly a bit tired after playing last night.
Los Angeles has been good defensively lately, but Miami would look good based on the overall environment. Guys like Bam, Norm, and Herro would look good if they’re all active.
Sneaky GPP Pivots
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Wemby ($11.2k)
I’ll stop short at piling up a full list, as we don’t know ownership or injuries yet. As things stand, though, Wemby could be overlooked. Kawhi, Spida, and Luka are all Q. If any of them sit, Wemby’s ownership would spike. But for now, all of them playing would make him a killer tourney spend.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one. Detroit is the team in the spotlight tonight, as Cade Cunningham is out indefinitely.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear. On this slate, Luka Doncic is the safest ceiling play if your budget allows it.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names. Pistons, Cavs, and Clippers value figures to garner heavy ownership. We can exploit that by targeting 1-2 options on those teams that aren’t projected to be very popular.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one. Guys like Josh Giddey and Devin Booker are viable in tourneys, but they are both big underdogs tonight, which could make them unnecessary traps.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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