Just a 3-game NBA slate tonight, but there are still some ownership edges we can exploit. The point of this article is to take a look at some of the projected chalk and offer up some possible alternatives. If a guy is Good Chalk, I will say so, but the field is naturally going to be more confident in some spots than they should be.
Reed Sheppard ($4,900, 56% pOWN%)
Houston won’t have Kevin Durant tonight in Indiana, which obviously clears lots of usage. Reed Sheppard probably won’t start, though his minutes should be elevated with Houston needing as much shooting and spacing as it can get. He and Tari Eason are really the only consistent long-range shooters the Rockets have without KD. We know Ime Udoka will be thrilled to plant Reed on the bench at any possible opportunity, which is the main drawback that always comes with rolling the dice on him.
RotoGrinders’ ownership projection of 56% for Sheppard tonight may even be light on a 3-game slate. Sheppard (+3.2%) gets the biggest usage hike of any Rocket with Durant on the bench with a 1.07 DK FP/minute average. All good for a player who is clearly too cheap for the role he should play.
The tiny slate also leaves us lacking some clear pivots. I think the most comparable option at lower ownership is Jordan Miller. He’s $5,000 without the exact same positionality as Reed (SG/SF), but he has been very productive (1.05 FP/minute) with James Harden on the bench. Harden is out again tonight against Philly. Miller logged 23 minutes off the bench last night. I’m not necessarily sold he’ll see that again if Bogdan Bogdanovic winds up in the rotation, but I still think Miller is your best alternative if you need to shed some ownership and fade Sheppard.
Cedric Coward ($5,400) is another one if you can find the extra $500. Coward’s minutes are sadly stuck under 30 on a nightly basis, but his median projection is essentially identical to Sheppard’s, and I’ll be surprised if he generates even half as much ownership.
I suppose you can call Ty Jerome ($4,000) a “pivot,” but I’d expect Jerome to be popular in his own right after a big game in his season debut over the weekend.
Alperen Sengun ($9,200, 33.4% pOWN%)
The Pacers get smoked in the paint every night, and it obviously sets up well for Alperen Sengun without Durant. Interestingly enough, Sengun’s usage is essentially the same this season with or without KD on the floor. If you wanna get technical, it’s actually down by 0.1% without Durant in a healthy 382-minute sample.
Sengun is a stat-stuffer (1.27 FP/minute), and he’d be popular in this spot even if KD were playing. Durant’s absence will inflate his ownership further, though, and I’m not sure it’s really warranted. We also haven’t seen a nuclear ceiling from Sengun in quite some time, and he’s also playing through an ankle injury he sustained last month. I think that’s at least partially to blame for his lackluster recent performance.
I don’t think Sengun is a must-play, especially factoring in his popularity. You can get to Joel Embiid for an extra $500 in a tougher spot against the Clippers. Embiid has been playing out of his mind, and the minutes have been there in a big way. I’m less certain we’re going to see something like 39 again with Philly on the front half of a B2B, but Joel does project for fairly light ownership even on a 3-game slate. Kawhi Leonard is going to spike in popularity now that we have Harden news in a similar price range.
I also don’t mind saving $900 and dropping from Sengun to Julius Randle, assuming Randle plays through his Q tag. Amen Thompson won’t fly under the radar, but he’s also $900 cheaper and this matchup favors him, too. If Sengun fails as chalk and the Rockets are still successful overall, pretty good chance Amen is having a big night.
Ty Jerome ($4,000, 35% pOWN%)
So, Ty Jerome made his season debut over the weekend and proceeded to post a 35% usage rate in 19 minutes in a starting role. Still no Morant for the Grizz, so Jerome should start again here in the exact same matchup against Minnesota. One thing worth noting is Jaren Jackson Jr. did not appear in Saturday’s game, and he’ll be back tonight. JJJ is the Grizzlies’ usage leader without Morant, so we can expect Jerome’s usage to decline at least a bit with Jaren in the mix.
Jerome is a terrific per-minute producer, but a guy who might top out at 20 minutes is inherently risky, especially as chalk. Of course, there also aren’t many other players in the $4,000 range that offer a similar ceiling, so I get it. Sometimes you just need to take the savings regardless of the ownership. I’ll still have plenty of lineups that include Jerome.
There’s also really just one pivot, but it’s worth mentioning. With Harden out, Kobe Sanders ($3,800) should draw a second straight start for LAC. Sanders isn’t remotely as productive per-minute as Jerome is (0.72 FPPM without Harden), but he did play 31 minutes yesterday. It’s far from unreasonable to think Sanders can’t outscore Jerome straight-up for $200 cheaper at lower ownership.
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