Last week’s MMA Core was 2-0 heading into the main event. Then Sean Strickland KO’d Fluffy in very odd fashion. It wasn’t how I felt the fight would go at all, and I doubt I was alone. Still, we fell to 2-1 on the slate.
This week’s UFC event is not filled with many marquee matchups. It should still be a fun card and one we can exploit, but there are precious few “safe” fights that feel like absolute locks. That said, I’ll build out a three-man core with my favorite MMA DFS picks, while also highlighting some GPP plays.
MMA DFS Core for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
- Daniel Zellhuber ($9.4k)
- David Martinez ($8.9k)
- Brandon Moreno ($8.7k)
Zellhuber is a huge -360 betting favorite and he faces a 39-year old Bobby King. King has lost a step and has gotten finished a lot recently. The Golden Boy has 10 finishe in 15 wins and he’s never been finished himself. He’s a very good bet to win and pretty likely to get an early finish. Despite that, he’s not as owned as he should be, so we’re getting a fairly contrarian core play here.
Martinez is another big favorite (-305) as he takes on a 33-year old Marlon Vera who has lost three in a row and is just 1-4 over his last five. To his credit, he lasted with some heavy-hitters like Fig, Sean O’Malley, and Cory Sandhagen, and he’s never been finished in his career.
There’s a first time for everything, but even if Martinez needs a Decision, I think he gets it.
Moreno is 32 but everyone seems to be talking about him like he’s 38. He is a scrappy, versatile, and hyper aware fighter. He holds a serious grappling and submission edge against a young and aggressive Lone’er Kavanagh. Lone’er does have the talent to get an early KO here, but his defense stinks and Moreno is simply the more experienced and more skilled fighter.
Moreno is a -205 favorite to get the win and I tend to agree with that. We can get takedowns here and he could crush over a five-round fight if it goes that far.
GPP Picks for UFC Mexico
- Wes Schultz ($7.4k)
- Regina Tarin ($7.6k)
- Lone’er Kavanagh ($7.5k)
Schultz is probably going to lose against a vicious striker in Damian Pinas, but Pinas is making his official UFC debut and those sometimes don’t go as planned. Schultz is the better wrestler of the two, so if he can avoid an early KO, he may have a chance to get some points here.
That’s a pure price and leverage play. Obviously Pinas is a very good bet to win and a fantastic way to spend some salary. The same goes for Ernesta Kareckaite, but to a lesser degree. She’s likely going to beat Regina Tarin, but it’s MMA DFS, so nothing is guaranteed.
Tarin has six finishes in seven wins and has yet to lose. This fight is priced rather tightly, too, as she’s just a +155 dog. I’m not super confident she actually wins, but it’s within the range of outcomes in this fight and she saves us some cash.
I like Moreno to win, but if I am entering many MMA DFS lineups (which is the only way to play UFC DFS in my opinion), I want both sides of the main event. Kavanagh has his flaws, but he also can be super frustrating with his legs kicks, pressure, and pacing.
Kavanagh definitely leaves himself open to major damage, but that doesn’t really matter if he slaps Moreno around and keeps the fight standing up. At this price and with Moreno garnering plenty of ownership, he’s a viable pairing option and a solid leverage play.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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