This week’s MMA event is a solid one for real life fans of the sport, but not amazing for DFS purposes. We definitely have some fighters with high score potential and some nice finishing ability, but some of these plays are mis-priced.
Last time out my MMA DFS picks went 2-1, and that’s two straight “meh” showings. My goal is to get back to a 3-0 clean sweep so you only have to worry about nailing those other three slots in your MMA DraftKings lineups.
With that, let’s go over my three favorite plays for UFC Fight Night 260:
Carlos Ulberg ($9.3k)
I really don’t like a lot of the expensive options on this slate. They are probably going to win, but they lack actual DFS upside. Ulberg is not one of them, as he has elite finishing ability and has four 100+ fantasy point outings in his last seven bouts.
The issue is if this fight goes the distance he has exhibited a lower than preferred floor, but being in the main event and getting five rounds should negate that risk.
Ultimately, Ulberg is a sizable betting favorite, he’s red hot (8 straight wins), and Dominick Reyes has been hot and cold. Reyes is a tough assignment, but he can definitely be KO’d. I’d be sprinkling in some Reyes as leverage where I am not playing Ulberg, but I think he explodes and gets the knockout.
Navajo Sterling ($9.1k)
I also really like Alexia Thainara, but I can’t really commit to her when Navajo Sterling is staring me in the face at a lower salary.
Sterling is a perfect 7-0 and has proven striking and power. It has not translated to any finishes through two UFC fights, but he’s still looked good en route to a 2-0 start.
More than anything, Rodolfo Bellato is a human punching bag that is too stiff and slow to win in this matchup. I will definitely note that Bellato is a bug, hulking presence with his own power to rely on, but if these guys actually stand and trade, I’d banking on Sterling’s power and superior fluidity to win out.
Elisha Ellison ($7.4k)
At some point we need to obtain some value – especially if you want to also find a way to go get Navajo Sterling. There are a few punts we can take a look at, but the one I like the most is Ellison, who has a finish in all five of his wins.
His main path to victory is via KO, but five finishes in five wins is hard to ignore. The guy can stand and trade punches, and he can also get the fight to the ground and end it there. His sample size is super small and this is his UFC debut, so I note the risk.
However, he has been dominant to this point and if we’re going to roll the dice on anyone, it makes sense to target someone who has finishing ability, good power, and proven dominance.
Other MMA DFS Picks
- Bellato
- Thainara
- Louie Sutherland
Bellato is an interesting GPP leverage play. He is probably getting knocked the fuck out, but he’s a dangerous finisher in his own right and he often will just hang around. When a guy with his power can stay in the fight, he remains a threat.
If you don’t want to play Ulberg or Sterling for some reason, the top stud to pivot to is Thainara. She is an elite finished on then floor with her strong submission game and is a good bet to win this weekend.
Louie Sutherland also looks like a strong pick against Justin Tafa. Tafa has been a middling fighter for a while now and while Sutherland is making his UFC debut, he is pretty explosive (8 KOs) and has never been finished.
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