My MMA DFS core for UFC Vegas 111 went 2-1, while my GPP plays went 1-1. I was really high on Hyder Amil, so of course he was the one Core play that missed.
Amil is so explosive and his opponent is especially vulnerable to damage and quick finishes, but somehow that fight went the distance. Even worse, he lost on points.
I can’t promise it gets easier as we approach a loaded UFC 322 event. There are 14 amazing fights on the table. And I’m not being hyperbolic. Basically every single fight on this card looks awesome.
Most of them are fairly evenly matched and also have tight odds, so successful UFC 322 DFS picks won’t be easy to come by. That said, with a MMA DFS slate this big, we can at least pick our spots.
With that, let’s get to my favorite MMA DFS picks for UFC 322, as well as a couple of tourney pivots.
MMA DFS Core for UFC 322
- Bo Nickal (9.1k)
- Islam Makhachev ($9.2k)
- Malcolm Wellmaker ($8.4k)
I wish Bo Nickal was a little cheaper, but he’s my favorite stud of the week. He was a hot prospect just a second ago, but a loss to Reinier de Ridder slowed the chatter down. We are paying a premium, but he faces Rodolfo Vieira, who is 35 and not nearly as good of a wrestler.
I think Islam Makhachev is going to win the title this weekend. He will probably be chalky, but he feels like good chalk as a heavy favorite. He’s more skilled than Jack Della Maddalena, and he’s a really good bet to score a bunch of takedowns and control this fight from the jump.
I am also very high on Wellmaker, who is a vicious striker and elite finisher. He hasn’t faced a ton of top shelf competition, but he’s 10-0 with eight finishes. The guy always seems completely composed and in control, and I don’t see why that would change against Cody Haddon, who is a decent fighter but an inferior talent by comparison.
Nickal, Islam, and Wellmaker are all really good bets to win, but they’re also solid bets to rack up points with takedowns, damage, control time, and/or an early finish.
UFC 322 GPP Picks
- Leon Edwards ($7.3k)
- Roman Kopylov ($7.6k)
- Tracy Cortez ($7.2k)
- Beneil Dariush ($7.4k)
- Jack Della Maddalena ($7k)
Like I said, there are a lot of fights and a lot of them are very tough to call. I think Leon Edwards is very clickable due to price and nostalgia. He’s probably washed, but if he’s not he is way too cheap and could deliver a big performance and wreck this slate.
Cortez has yet to prove she is actually better than Erin Blanchfield and she lacks finishing upside, but we know she can dictate pace and control fights. At her price point, I don’t mind rotating her in to see if she can get some takedowns and grind her way to a win.
Kopylov is a finishing machine. His matchup with Gregory Rodrigues won’t be easy, but he’s the younger fighter and more explosive at this point. Gregory is not an easy out, but he can be KO’d. I don’t hate the idea of rotating a cheap Roman in with the hopes of a quick finish.
Dariush is much like Edwards in that he’s a big name with an elite skill-set. I’m worried he’s going to get finished himself in this spot, but his only two losses since (*checks notes) 2018 are against elite fighters. I can see him weathering the storm and getting the upset win.
Lastly, JDM is in the last fight of the night, is the defending champ, and is dirt cheap. It remains to be seen if he’s actually mega chalk or not, as he gets five rounds and has elite KO ability, but he’s obviously risky against the favored Islam. Still, if you’re not paying for Islam or want leverage on the field, this is one cheap route I don’t mind.
I won’t take credit for the GPP plays this week, as I am taking numerous shots down low and building around my MMA core with a few different plays across multiple lineups.
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