Noche UFC 3 is almost here. It’s a time of celebration, as we only get this night once a year. It’s also a time to win some cash, as I am really digging some of these matchups and am already poking holes in some of the top betting favorites.
My MMA DFS core plays went 3-0 last time out, so the goal is to set your MMA DFS lineups up with a strong foundation to help you win. It’s still on your to locate the proper value and get the other slots right, but hopefully a 3-0 start will send you on your way to victory.
With that, let’s walk through my top MMA DFS picks for DraftKings contests ahead of UFC Noche.
Jean Silva ($9.2k)
I am not here to call Diego Lopes a chump. However, I think he could be about to hit a rough patch here. He does have elite finishing ability (22 career wins by stoppage), but he couldn’t take down an aging Alexander Volkanovski, and he’s running into a buzzsaw in Jean Silva.
Silva is highly aggressive, so his fighting style is going to leave him open to shots, but it’s also precisely why I love him for this fight. Silva isn’t cheap, but he has been red hot inside the UFC, winning each of his five fights by stoppage (4 KOs).
Lopes is without a doubt Silva’s biggest test to date, but judging by the way he’s handled himself to this point, I’m not too concerned. Lopes would in theory be a strong cash game play – he’s just $7k and would get up to 5 rounds if the fight went the distance – but I think he grades out as more of a GPP play (he’s going to need a surprise finish to make it into winning lineups) because I do not see this thing lasting very long.
David Martinez ($7.7k)
I don’t want to go after just favorites, and you also can’t make a winning MMA DFS lineup with only expensive studs. Insert David Martinez, who is still most definitely a stud, but coming in cheap due to being the underdog.
Font has more experience, but he’s far older and feels like a reach as the betting favorite.
Martinez took this fight on short notice and fought in March, but it was a very impressive UFC debut that ended with a KO victory.
Martinez obviously has very little experience at this level, but his first UFC fight showcased his upside, and he’s piled up an alarming 11 finishes across 12 wins so far in his career. Font feels like a low-ceiling play, whereas Martinez saves us cash and has as much upside as anyone going into Noche UFC 3.
Tatiana Suarez ($9.4k)
Martinez is one good MMA pick to build a foundation of value plays that can allow us to pair the likes of Silva and Suarez – both of which are solid favorites for Noche UFC this weekend.
Suarez has had a really tough journey, and it’s worth noting that she wasn’t quite herself back in February, when her long awaited return ended in a thud – a Decision loss that resulted in her first defeat of her career.
I expect her to bounce back and return to form this Saturday, however. We have to pay to find out if she can, but she has a very strong resume, and more importantly, she can be a takedown machine. Even if she grinds her way to a Decision win, she should rack up plenty of points to be part of winning lineups – but we know the finishing upside is there, just as well.
Noche UFC GPP Picks
- Jose Daniel Medina
- Diego Lopes
We don’t yet know the projected ownership for Noche UFC, but I have to assume Medina isn’t owned and Lopes is a wild card. I will only mention Diego because he’s definitely a leverage play against Silva and we know he can KO or tap out anyone.
I don’t want to get a ton of exposure to Lopes, but a bounce-back win can’t be totally ruled out. He is also $7k, has elite finishing ability, could be low-owned, and has the possibility or fighting up to five rounds. I would still get a ton of exposure to Silva, but I’d sprinkle in some Lopes (not in the same lineup, typically) as well.
Medina is not a great play, as Dusko Todorovic is a finishing machine and is also a big favorite. Todorovic is the favorite for a reason, but it’s definitely worth noting that while he is super explosive (11 of 12 wins have come via stoppage), he is also vulnerable to getting knocked the fuck out (4 KO losses).
Almost as telling is the fact that Todorovic has not been great in the UFC. His middling 12-6 career record is an eyebrow raiser, but he’s also dropped three straight fights and four of his last five. We simply have not seen that elite finishing ability in the Octagon very much lately, and Medina might be just good enough to take advantage of his defensive issues.
To wrap things up, I’d still be looking to get to Todorovic a bit, but Costa is the third stud I feel best about on this slate. Good luck!
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