Good news, folks, we’ve made it to Friday. Our reward is a hefty 13-game slate with a little bit of everything. Fortunately, we do not have Coors Field in our lives this weekend, and we don’t have the Rockies on the slate at all. That means we don’t have a free square on the pitching side, which is for the best, I reckon.
As a result, ownership should be pretty spread out, especially on the hitting side. The Cubs (at LAA) are the only team on the slate with an implied run total north of 5, and the lack of clarity should make this a fun slate. I’m sure it won’t be at all frustrating.
Anyway, on to the MLB DFS picks. And also, this:
Wasn’t that fun? Ok, on to the content for reals this time.
SP1 – Max Fried, Bryan Woo, Nathan Eovaldi, Blake Snell, Shane Bieber?
Ah, Shane Bieber is back in our lives. A thing like that. He’ll make his season/team debut tonight for Toronto against the Marlins in Miami. This was formerly one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he should be good for 80-90 pitches here if things go well. The issue is the uncertainty, and we’re not getting a huge discount at $9,000 on DK. Bieber pitched well in the minors with 37 Ks across 29 innings with a tidy 1.86 ERA, but we haven’t really seen him pitch at an ace level since 2021. I think you can roll the dice in large-field, multi-entry, but there’s a ton of uncertainty here.
It’ll be interesting to see how the ownership breaks among the other top options, namely Max Fried and Bryan Woo. I think the matchup pretty clearly favors the latter, as he’s at home in pitcher-friendly Seattle against a boom/bust A’s lineup. This version of the Athletics has a lot of power (.200 ISO vs. RHP) and they’re not striking out a ton (20.7%), but Woo is consistent, eats innings, and the ballpark is favorable. Woo is particularly dominant against righties, and he’s projected to see 5 RHBs.
Fried gets a tougher draw at home against Boston. He’s historically more of a real-life ace than a DFS one, as evidenced by the slightly-above-average 22.9% strikeout rate to go with strong all-around numbers. On the bright side, the Red Sox are striking out at a healthy 25.9% clip vs. LHP, and the lineup really doesn’t profile particularly well to deal with lefties (.147 ISO, 46.2% groundballs). It’s worth noting Fried has been in pretty dreadful form since the beginning of July, with at least 3 earned runs in all but 1 of his 8 starts in that span.
Nathan Eovaldi has been consistent (25.4% Ks, low walks, low power), but he’s also been a little lucky, as evidenced by his 1.76 ERA and 3.20 SIERA. A 3.20 SIERA is excellent, but the ERA is due for regression. The Guardians are an average matchup for righties (.174 ISO, 22.2% Ks), and Eovaldi won’t come cheap at $10,300 on DK. He’s projected to be a little lower-owned than Woo and Fried, which makes him an interesting enough pivot.
The only other high-end option here is Blake Snell ($9,300) in San Diego to match up with the Padres for the 2nd time in a row. I doubt anyone’s really gonna play him, as the Pads are one of the lowest-strikeout offenses in the league vs. LHP (17.3%). Snell’s erratic control gives him a low floor, but he has been an elite K guy over the last month (32.8%) and he’s doing a fine job of avoiding barrels. I think he’s an elite tournament play if he’s going to pull single-digit ownership, as he’s one of the few guys on the slate capable of putting up a score you have to have to win a tournament, even against a high-contact offense.
SP2 – Zebby Matthews, Aaron Civale, Cade Povich, Ryne Nelson
I think we’re probably looking at a second straight Zebby Matthews Chalk Night, as DK continues to underprice him ($7,700) relative to his skills. He’s at 29.9% strikeouts for the year, though he’s also allowed a barrel rate north of 10% along with some power. The White Sox aren’t a great matchup for Ks – only Colson Montgomery and Brooks Baldwin have above-average K-rates vs. RHP – but I’m fine with just taking the discount on a pitcher who should probably cost at least $8,500 by now.
Aaron Civale on the other side of the matchup has pretty middling numbers (19.1% Ks), but Minnesota is a much better matchup for hunting strikeouts. This weird lineup has also hit for a lot of power (.232 ISO), albeit with some small-sample numbers likely boosting them. The key is Civale’s $6,300 DK salary. He’s an innings-eater who’s likely to give up a few runs, but I think he can put up a useful score at that salary if he avoids getting completely destroyed.
Cade Povich ($6,000) is another interesting punt. He’ll face the Astros for the 2nd straight outing. Unlike Civale, Povich has shown some strikeout stuff this season (25.5%). Houston’s entirely right-handed lineup isn’t an ideal spot for a lefty, as they’ve done pretty significant damage (.172 ISO, .343 wOBA) alongside a 20% team strikeout rate. While I slightly prefer Civale’s matchup, Povich is a very similar play, and neither is projected to be at all popular.
THe last one I’ll name is Ryne Nelson at home against the Reds. He’s up to 25.5% Ks against RHBs on the year, and Cincinnati is projected to have 6 of them in the lineup. At $7,500 I think he’s a fine Zebby pivot, even if Matthews has the higher ceiling.
Primary Stacks – Cubs, Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Mets
So we know the Cubs are the only offense projected to top 5 runs, and they’re going into Anaheim to take on the wobbling Tyler Anderson. For the season, Anderson’s strikeout rate is down to just 17.7%. He’s allowed a .197 ISO and a 9.3% barrel rate to righties, while lefties have tattooed him to the tune of a .298 ISO, .417 wOBA, and a 12% barrel rate. Over the last month, RHBs have a cartoonish .447 ISO against him.
The moral of the story is we can stack against Anderson without worrying too much about handedness. Anderson’s lack of strikeouts make this a pretty good bounce-back spot for Pete Crow-Armstrong, who’s struggled considerably since the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker has, too, and it came out recently that he’s been playing through a hairline fracture in his hand since June. I suppose I’d play him in stacks if he cracks the lineup tonight, but he’s not exactly cheap. Seiya Suzuki is the pretty clear headliner in any Cubs stack given his terrific output against lefties (.395 wOBA, .276 ISO), while the rest of the stack (Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Carson Kelly, Ian Happ) is pretty affordable.
The Yankees will take their swings against Brayan Bello at home. Bello isn’t an ideal candidate to stack against given his decent groundball ability, but the New York lineup is full of guys who hit the ball in the air with power. Lefties have had more success against Bello historically, so Jazz Chisholm, Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Ryan McMahon, and Austin Wells are all in good spots. Jasson Dominguez is the lefty in whom I’ll have the least interest, while Aaron Judge is Aaron Judge.
Overall, I slightly prefer the other New York team in Atlanta against lefty Joey Wentz. Like Tyler Anderson, Wentz projects for a reverse split from the left side. That makes Juan Soto one of the best (and possibly sneakiest) pay-up bats on the slate, but I’ll still gladly fire up Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Starling Marte in stacks.
I mentioned the Astros’ lineup profiling well against lefties, so of course we can fire them up against Povich. Carlos Correa, Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, and Yainer Diaz is the preferred 5-man, though Cam Smith and Chas McCormick have double-digit barrel rates vs. LHP on the year, as well.
Texas faces Slade Cecconi, a righty allowing a .205 ISO on the season with a 12.9% barrel rate. This looks like a good spot to hunt for power with Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford along with punts Joc Pederson and Cody Freeman.
Secondary Stacks – Twins, Royals, Blue Jays, DBax
Civale is playable, but he’s also a guy we can stack against given his mediocre numbers. Byron Buxton is always pricey, but the rest of the stack – Luke Keaschall, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee – is still super cheap.
KC faces Casey (KC?) Mize. As usual, there’s a lot of talent in the first 5 hitters in the lineup – Mike Yastrzemski, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez. As usual, things drop off considerably lower in the lineup. Makes ’em easy to stack, at least.
The Blue Jays get a park downgrade going into Miami, but it’s a deep, talented offense I assume nobody’s going to be playing. I don’t think Ryan Gusto is bad, but he’s allowed a 12.3% barrel rate to lefties. That’s Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho’s music. Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement are cheap, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer are always viable.
Zack Littell has pitched better since his arrival in Cincinnati, but this is still a guy allowing an ISO pushing .200 to hitters from both sides. As a result, I don’t mind an Arizona stack – Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel, and Gabriel Moreno.
Not gonna get to a ton of the Dodgers with a park downgrade going into Petco, but I will gladly make an exception for a Shohei Ohtani one-off.
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