Hello, and Happy Friday. We’ve got the biggest MLB slate of the year on tap on DraftKings tonight with a whopping 13 games on the board. FanDuel is doing some weird shit with an 11-gamer that starts earlier and leaves some of the late games off. Leave it to FD to galaxy-brain themselves into the dumbest slates imaginable.
Anyway, we’ll focus on DK here. There are tons of viable pitchers out there by default, and, thankfully, no Coors Field to deal with, either. Oh, and if you haven’t signed up for a free trial of our new DFS lineup builder, why? You get 7 days free, cancel anytime. This isn’t an ordinary optimizer that simply calculates and sorts by median projection; it’s using play-by-play sims for each game to give you +EV lineups to deploy in GPPs.
Let’s dive in.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (4/24)
- Paul Skenes ($10,000, at MIL)
- Gavin Williams ($9,800, at TOR)
- George Kirby ($9,500, at STL)
- Brandon Woodruff ($9,300, vs. PIT)
- Freddy Peralta ($8,800, vs. COL)
- Drew Rasmussen ($8,300, vs. MIN)
- Will Warren ($8,600, at HOU)
- Noah Cameron ($7,200, vs. LAA)
These are not the only playable pitchers, but we have to draw a line somewhere.
Paul Skenes ($10,000) is the most expensive of the lot against the Brewers in Milwaukee. Skenes is excellent in every regard, and he’ll benefit from facing a shorthanded MIL lineup missing Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio. Skenes doesn’t have many (any?) weaknesses, I still think he’s just more real-life great than DFS great. The strikeouts were around 29% last year while the groundballs were solid. He will likely spike a big-strikeout game every now and then, they’re just infrequent. Milwaukee is a very low-power lineup with average strikeouts (20.2%). I expect Skenes to be fine, and of course he’s playable. I’m just not sure we need to pay $10,000 on this slate. Let’s see what else is out there.
Gavin Williams gets what looks like a solid matchup on the road in Toronto. The Ks (34.8%) and walks (14.8%) have both been there in a big way, though he’s also keeping the ball on the ground (55.2%). This watered-down Jays offense has been horrendous (.119 ISO, .311 wOBA), even if they’re not striking out much (18.7%). Fortunately, they’re also not patient (5.3% walks). I think things line up pretty well for Williams here, and the strikeout upside is worth chasing. The $9,800 discount from Skenes isn’t really meaningful, but Williams has shown a higher ceiling already this season.
Freddy Peralta ($8,800) is probably going to be chalk at home against the Rockies. Peralta’s dicey control has resurfaced this season, and he’s had some trouble with LHBs early on. I do expect his current 25% K-rate to rise, and we know the deal with the Rockies on the road. There are plenty of strikeouts available here, and you can pretty easily argue Peralta is underpriced, even if he hasn’t been amazing so far with the Mets. I have no issue with playing him.
Drew Rasmussen ($8,200) is popping into a lot of lineups for this home matchup with the Twins. He’s good (27% Ks, 4.1% walks, 47.1% groundballs), and the Twins have a lot of Ks in this lineup against RHP (26.2%). They’re patient, but Rasmussen has excellent control. The question is always how long the Rays will let him pitch. I think the 64 pitches in his last outing had more to do with him sucking than anything else, and I think he can crack 90 if things go well enough. Given the low salary and the matchup’s upside potential, I’m highly interested.
Noah Cameron? The Angels have a lot of right-handed power to throw at the lefty, and he’s really struggled (19.1% Ks, .253 ISO, .370 wOBA) so far in ’26. The Halos also haven’t been as strikeout-heavy against southpaws. Cameron is likely to improve, and $7,200 is a decent price point for a pitcher in a pitcher-friendly park. I’d rather find the extra salary for Rasmussen, but I’m okay with Cameron in larger-field, multi-entry GPPs.
George Kirby takes a park hit leaving T-Mobile, but Busch Stadium is still on the pitcher-friendly side. The Cardinals also have some high-strikeout bats these days, and just a few hitters have flashed much power potential this season. Kirby’s own strikeout numbers are down (20.9%), not that he’s a huge source of Ks, to begin with. I guess he’s fine, I’m just not sure his middling ceiling warrants a $9,500 price tag.
Will Warren is a pretty good strikeout pitcher (29.5%), and his control looks much better than it did last year. Warren had some trouble with lefties last year, but Houston’s lineup is almost entirely right-handed, save for one very notable left-handed slugger. The Astros’ offense is still good enough, and their low strikeout rate (16.3%) is enough to make Warren a secondary play at best at $8,600.
I don’t think Brandon Woodruff is particularly good anymore, and he’s $9,300. Hard pass.
SP Rankings
- Williams
- Peralta
- Rasmussen
- Skenes
- Kirby
- Cameron
- Warren
Top MLB DFS Stacks for 4/24
- Orioles (vs. Brayan Bello)
- White Sox (vs. opener/Miles Mikolas)
- Royals (vs. Yusei Kikuchi)
- Dodgers (vs. Jameson Taillon)
- A’s (at Nathan Eovaldi)
- Cubs (at Emmet Sheehan)
- Braves (vs. Andrew Painter)
- Phillies (at Grant Holmes)
- Yankees (at Lance McCullers Jr.)
Lots of good offense out there, folks. I’ll start with Our White Sox, who return home to face an opener and Miles Mikolas. I assume the public will eventually catch on to Chicago, and anyone facing Mikolas tends to take ownership. It’s justified, though. His walk rate (10.2%) is almost as high as his strikeout rate (15.3%), and he’s showing no ability to control batted balls to hitters from either side.
Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery are high-strikeout hitters, but that shouldn’t be a problem in this matchup. Everson Pereira, Miguel Vargas, and Andrew Benintendi round out my preferred way to stack ’em.
The Yankees and Dodgers face a couple of veterans with some middling numbers. Lance McCullers is talented, but he’s also got an incredibly high walk rate, and the groundball stuff he flashed earlier in his career seems to be gone. Lefties really stand out – Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm – but, as always, you can play Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton against anybody.
Jameson Taillon is yielding tons of barrels (12.5%) early on, with particularly awful power numbers allowed to LHBs – Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy is a pretty fun 4-man, it’s just expensive. Alex Freeland, Dalton Rushing, and Hyeseong Kim are a little cheaper and viable if they crack the order.
The Orioles are another team facing a low-strikeout righty in Brayan Bello. Bello at least has some groundball skills, but LHBs continue to ravage him. Low-groundball lefties from Baltimore look excellent here – Gunnar Henderson, Dylan Beavers, and Adley Rutschman fit the bill. Colson Cowser hits the ball on the ground, but there’s enough power there to put him in play. I will play Pete Alonso from the right side against anyone, while Taylor Ward, Leody Taveras, and Jeremiah Jackson are all stackable. I love this spot for the O’s.
Yusei Kikuchi continues to struggle to limit right-handed power – Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, and Salvador Perez headline a lackluster KC offense. Lane Thomas and Starling Marte have decent track records vs. opposite-handed pitching, too.
Andrew Painter might be good, but he’s probably more average at this stage of his career. Stacking the Braves is really just betting on talent. I’d still start with Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, and Ozzie Albies against the RHP with Ronald Acuna in play for full stacks. The Phillies haven’t been good at all, but Grant Holmes can get erratic, and his numbers across the board are weak against lefties. I like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott, and Justin Crawford as a full lefty 5-man.
You can hunt for some homers with the Cubs against Emmet Sheehan, who’s had some trouble with lefties. Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Moises Ballesteros, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold the platoon edge.
Nathan Eovaldi is yet another right-hander allowing some power to LHBs (10.5% barrels, .208 ISO, .392 wOBA). Nick Kurtz, Carlos Cortes, and Tyler Soderstrom are 3 terrific lefties hitting near the top of the A’s lineup.
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