We’ve got a dinky little 3-game afternoon MLB DFS slate on this fine Wednesday, but we’re here to talk about the bigger 10-game main slate kicking off at the weird, Toronto-ass 7:07 PM ET. At first glance, we’ve got a couple of pitchers up top in favorable matchups who should garner tons of ownership and a whole lot of uncertainty after that.
As was the case last night, things look pretty wide open, especially on the hitting side. Let’s break it all down.
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SP1 – Framber Valdez, Sonny Gray, Nolan McLean
Nick Lodolo is priced like an ace on FD, but this is his first start off the IL after dealing with a blister. He’s also facing the Dodgers in LA. Good pitcher and all, but this probably isn’t the spot, as I’d expect a pitch limit here. $8,200 on DK is at least somewhat viable despite some risk with the pitch count/matchup.
Alrighty. For the second night in a row, we’ve got one of the Astros’ aces facing the Rockies at home. Things didn’t go too smoothly for Hunter Brown last night, though he was aided by most of his runs being unearned. Framber Valdez ($10,300 DK, $10,400 FD) is one of the more talented pitchers on the board, though the righty-heavy Rockies are a little better-equipped to deal with left-handed pitching (18% Ks, .346 wOBA).
Valdez – while good – also isn’t typically the kind of high-ceiling DFS option who’ll consistently post ceiling scores you have to have in GPPs. His 23.5% strikeout rate for the season is average, and his ability to rack up groundballs (60.8%) helps him skate through some easy innings. The Ks are even lower (18.5%) over the last month, and he’s run into some control issues. I’m likely to be pretty heavily underweight on what should be significant Valdez ownership in GPPs.
We’ve also got Sonny Gray in a tasty home matchup against the Pirates. Gray’s typically a better source of strikeouts (26.8%) than Framber, while the Pirates (.121 ISO, .299 wOBA, 23.2% Ks) are supreme butthole against right-handed pitching, Andre Pallante notwithstanding. Gray will allow some barrels (11.2%) to righties, but I’m not sure who we’re supposed to be scared of in this lineup. He’s also $800 cheaper than Valdez on DK and $1,000 less on FanDuel, which makes this a pretty easy call. I think Gray’s just the better play, and one I’m more interested in playing into his own high ownership.
The unknown commodity here is Nolan McLean, who’s racked up a 31.1% K-rate through 2 starts with the Mets. He is a heralded prospect and I trust the talent, even if his current strikeout rate may be a result of small-sample noise. The issue is the matchup with the Phillies, who have power (.175 ISO) along with just a 20.3% team K-rate vs. RHP. That none of these guys have ever seen McLean before certainly works in his favor, but I’m not sure we need to pay $9,000 for a rookie against the Phillies.
Someone who isn’t an unknown commodity is Shohei Ohtani, who draws the Reds at home. I’m willing to give him a pass for his crappy last start at Coors, where we know things can go flying off the rails. Ohtani’s 30.4% strikeout rate and 3.5% walk rate are terrific. The issue is the leash, as the Dodgers aren’t too likely to extend him beyond either 5 innings or 80 pitches, whichever comes first. Thanks to the short leash, we’re still getting a discount on Ohtani at $8,500 on DK and $7,700 on FD at home against Cincinnati.
The Reds are a neutral matchup, but the discount is too good for me to ignore. On a slate with some sketchy pitching, I’m more than willing to take the risk that comes with Ohtani’s short leash, even though he’ll also be pretty chalky. I think you can get away with fading the more expensive tier and playing Ohtani as your SP1 if you’re so inclined.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Shohei Ohtani | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Sonny Gray | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Framber Valdez | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 4. Nolan McLean | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
SP2 – Aaron Civale, Colin Rea, Jacob Latz, Casey Mize, Chase Dollander, Bubba Chandler, Ryne Nelson, Eric Lauer, Nick Lodolo (DK)
Once again, we’ve got a laundry list of viable SP2s, even if most of them are pretty underwhelming on paper.
Aaron Civale is Aaron Civale, but we have seen the Ks trend up (24.2%) over the last month. He’s had some control issues against lefties, but Mike Yastrzemski is the only Royals lefty taking his walks this season. This isn’t even a good matchup for Ks (17.7% vs. RHP), but he’s $6,000 flat on DraftKings. Nothing other than the salary feels great, but as of now, he’s my highest-owned cheapie.
Colin Rea gets a nice park boost going into San Francisco to face a Giants team whiffing more than 23% of the time vs. RHP. Facing a lineup with 5 lefties in it is suboptimal, but Rafael Devers is the GIants’ only lefty hitting for any sort of power, and the ballpark helps to mute power to begin with. Rea is also just $6,700. There’s nothing “safe” about this, but there really isn’t any such thing as safety when it comes to pitchers. Rea is cheap, which is enough on this slate.
I’ve played Chase Dollander more than I’d care to admit this season, but he’s another guy with a cheap salary ($5,000 DK) getting a park boost going into Houston. We typically prefer righties against the Astros – though things get more complicated now that Yordan Alvarez is back – and Dollander has struck out 29.4% of righties (small sample!) since returning from the demotion to the minors. Against a lineup that may have 6-7 RHBs, I think there’s a chance Dollander can get you something like 10-12 points. At $5,000, that might be all you need if your expensive bats come through.
Nothing about Casey Mize’s numbers jump off the page, and he followed up his 10-strikeout outing 2 starts ago by whiffing a grand total of zero Royals in his last game. He’s also getting a park downgrade going into Sacramento. I still have some interest with the A’s striking out more than 24% of the time vs. RHP, but he’s a secondary option, at best.
Jacob Latz is a bit of a rando, but there’s upside here. He’s shown strikeout ability against righties (24.3%) from the left side, while the Angels are striking out at a cartoonishly high 37.3% rate against LHP on the year. Amazingly, the only hitter in the projected lineup who isn’t striking out a ton is Luis Rengifo. Latz is under $8,000 on both sites, so I’m interested.
Bubba Chandler is the Pirates’ No. 2 prospect, and he threw 40 pitches in long relief in his MLB debut against Colorado last week. The park is good and the Cardinals are all looking forward to Cancun at this point, but we may not be looking at more than 70 pitches here, tops. He’s nice and cheap, but the leash is a stumbling block.
Ryne Nelson, while good, is very splitsy, and he’s likely to face around 5 LHBs in the Brewers’ lineup tonight. Milwaukee also inexplictably scores like 10 runs a game, so I don’t love it. Eric Lauer actually might be kind of popular at home against the Twins, even though he’s Eric Lauer and has a wide range of outcomes with his leash. I think he is playable, but the current pOWN% pushes him down the list a bit.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Aaron Civale | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Colin Rea | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Jacob Latz | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Eric Lauer | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 5. Chase Dollander | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Casey Mize | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 7. Bubba Chandler | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 8. Ryne Nelson | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Blue Jays, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies
So, at first glance, I think people will be excited to pick on Taijuan Walker (at Mets) and Simeon Woods Richardson (at Blue Jays).
Walker’s strikeout rate is barely over 12% over the last month. The control is good and he is getting groundballs (52.2%), but this is a Mets offense with loads of power (.201 ISO vs. RHP). If you find some savings on the pitching side, you can pretty easily afford the big boppers you’d want – Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo. Mark Vientos is still too cheap for his skills, while Cedric Mullins and Brett Baty will have the platoon advantage.
SWR’s barrel rate is up to 11.1% on the season and north of 12% over the last month. He’s been racking up strikeouts (30%) against righties over the last 30 days, but that’s probably more small-sample nonsense. I don’t care about the splits, as this is just a deep offense that looks like a quality stack just about every night – Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette, Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger.
I’m not thrilled about the Dodgers against Lodolo, especially considering we can’t roster Ohtani as a hitter. There’s still plenty of righty power for him to navigate, and it’s not like we’re expecting Lodolo to throw 9 innings here. Teoscar Hernandez, Mookie Betts, and Will Smith are the headliners, while you can get cheaper with Kiké Hernandez, Andy Pages, and Miguel Rojas.
Offenses in San Francisco aren’t generally at the top of the list, but Carson Whisenhunt looks like one of the more attackable pitchers on the board. He’s a lefty getting shredded by righties so far – Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw, Carson Kelly, and Justin Turner will have the platoon edge, and they’re pretty afforadble beyond Suzuki.
I think McLean is probably good, but even good young pitchers will take their lumps. This is a chance to get a powerful Phillies offense at what should be pretty low ownership, especially compared to the other offense in this game. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper stand out from the left side, followed by Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm in full stacks.
Secondary Stacks and Power Hunting – Tigers, A’s, White Sox, Angels, Brewers
As always, both sides of the Tigers-A’s game looks decent enough in a park that’s been pretty homer-happy this season. Luis Morales hasn’t pitched poorly for the A’s, but the control’s been erratic, at best. Righties have also been barreling him up. Gleyber Torres looks like a terrific way to fill 2nd base even if you’re not stacking the Tigers, but hitters of either handedness look pretty good.
Power-hunting with the A’s big sluggers is always on the radar here – Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom.
I like the spot for Latz against the Angels, but ther righty power is still viable – Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Jo Adell, etc.
I mentioned Ryne Nelson’s trouble against lefties, so back to the well with Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick, but the blazing-hot Andrew Vaughn is still a core piece in stacks. The White Sox are another team with good individual power bats to pick out – Colson Montgomery, Lenyn Sosa, Miguel Vargas, Kyle Teel.
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