Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate is a beefer of a 12-gamer, again with a little bit of everything. Everyone’s favorite punching bag – the Rockies – are back in our lives, luckily away from Coors Field. They do happen to be facing the ace of the slate, though, which will immediately lead to a boatload of ownership around the night’s most expensive pitcher.
I’m already late, so let’s not waste any more time.
SP1 – Hunter Brown, Jacob Misiorowski, Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo
As mentioned, we’ve got a very obvious overall SP1 here with Hunter Brown facing the Rockies in Houston. Brown’s strikeout rate is down from 29.3% for the season to just 21.4% over the last month, but nothing about his velo makes that look like anything but a blip on the radar. We know the Rockies are awful, especially away from home, and Mickey Moniak is the only left-handed hitter in the lineup.
Brown’s a great play, it’s just a matter of whether you want to plunge $11,000 into a mega-chalk pitcher. I think he pretty clearly has the highest ceiling on the slate, but at first glance, I’m not totally sold on Brown being any sort of a must-play in GPPs.
Jacob Misiorowski is always a wild card thanks to his pitch count and control. I think we’ve seen enough from him to think his 35.5% strikeout rate for the season is legit, but so is his 12.3% walk rate. The walks got him into some major hot water in his last outing, and it’s just going to be a part of his game for the time being. The Arizona lineup happens to be pretty patient (8.8% walks vs. RHP), though they’re also striking out nearly 23% of the time.
Miz isn’t really yielding much in terms of batted ball production, it’s just a matter of whether he can keep traffic off the basepaths. He threw 78 pitches in the last game after just 54 in his first start off the IL. I could see him getting into the neighborhood of 85-90 pitches tonight, but that could also mean like 4 innings of work if the control is wonky. He’s an intriguing GPP play at $9,500, but probably better suited for multi-entry, larger-field tournaments.
Speaking of pitchers with tons of strikeout upside and unpredictable control, Dylan Cease heads into Seattle. His 30.2% K-rate for the season is up there with Brown’s, but he’s also walked more than 14% of hitters over the last month. The Mariners are another team that will take their walks (8% vs. RHP), but I like the $9,300 price tag and the pitcher-friendly ballpark. I prefer Cease to Misiorowski, and the discount from Brown is meaningful.
Jesus Luzardo ($9,000) gets the red-hot Mets in New York. Luzardo’s had a few meltdown starts, but his control is far better than that of Misiorowski or Cease. The issue is the matchup, but I generally prefer lefties against the Mets in the first place. I think he’s a terrific tournament play, especially if he’s going to see lower ownership than Brown and Cease.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Hunter Brown | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Dylan Cease | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Jesus Luzardo | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Jacob Misiorowski | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
SP2 – Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi, Patrick Corbin, Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Luis Gil
Another decent pitching slate, and you can add guys like Bailey Ober and MacKenzie Gore to your list if you want.
Yusei Kikuchi is the guy who probably stands out the most here going into Texas to face a Rangers team that’s struggled with lefties all year (.282 wOBA, 22.5% Ks, .160 ISO). Kikuchi always has a very long leash, though he’s been only slightly above-average for Ks this season (23.8%). I think the $8,300 DK salary is a little too cheap, and he’s probably my preferred SP2, all things considered.
Sean Manaea ($7,600) is an interesting case at home against the Phillies. It’s a tough spot on paper, but Philly’s projected lineup is striking out nearly 24% of the time vs. lefties, and Manaea’s strikeouts (28.3%) have been up to start his season. We’re still dealing with a fairly small sample since he missed considerable time due to injury, but I like it for the salary. I’d call Kikuchi the safer play, but Manaea looks pretty good in GPPs.
Patrick Corbin just keeps chugging along. His overall numbers are pretty unspectacular, but he’s been effective in terms of limiting damage and pitching fairly deep into games. He’s not gonna rack up a ton of strikeouts in general, though a matchup with the Angels (26.4% Ks vs. LHP) could help. The main thing is he’s only $6,300, so he doesn’t have to put up 30 to be worth your while. There’s certainly power risk against an offense with some right-handed thunder.
Justin Verlander draws the Cubs at home. This isn’t generally an offense to be trifled with, but if we are gonna do some trifling, it’s better to do it in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. I don’t really trust it, but JV’s strikeouts are way up (25.7%) over the past month, and he’s bounced back nicely after a rough start to the season. Chicago is also really slumping offensively these days, with a collective .132 wOBA over the past month against righties. I think Corbin is likely to be more popular, but I like Verlander a decent amount for just $500 more on DraftKings.
Chris Bassitt is another old man throwing baseballs and doing a decent job of keeping the damage to a minimum. We have seen his control slip off the rails (11.2% walks) over the past month, though, and this version of the Twins has been extremely patient (9.9% walks vs. RHP). Bassitt is a decent Kikuchi pivot at a similar $8,400 salary who should draw a fraction of Yusei’s ownership.
Luis Gil is probably the most skilled pitcher in the SP2 ranks, though he’s still working his way back into form after missing several months with an injury. The strikeouts have been there against righties (29.5%), but not so much vs. lefties (9.8%). Washington is a very lefty-heavy lineup, and Yankee Stadium generally favors lefty power. I think Gil is playable in GPPs given Washington’s proclivity for striking out (24.1% vs. RHP) and generally sucking, but probably best suited in large-field stuff.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Yusei Kikuchi | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Sean Manaea | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 3. Patrick Corbin | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 4. Justin Verlander | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Luis Gil | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Chris Bassitt | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, A’s
At first glance, I see a lot more to like on the hitting side than we had yesterday.
The Blue Jays get to tee off on the wildly inconsistent Bailey Ober, who’s been getting absolutely nuked by lefties all season long. That’s great news for Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, and Andres Gimenez, while I’d fill in the stack around them with the big-boppin’ righties – Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer.
The Yankees face southpaw MacKenzie Gore. This isn’t generally a pitcher I’d be too geeked to target, and the Yankees typically look better against righties. Still, Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton have made careers out of bashing left-handed pitching, while Gore’s reverse split keeps guys like Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, and Trent Grisham in play.
Nick Martinez is rather enigmatic, but there’s nothing about his numbers that suggests he should find success against the Dodgers in the league’s best home run park. Shohei Ohtani simply has to take him deep, while I’m back in on Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Andy Pages here.
Both teams in the Tigers-A’s game have implied run totals over 5 with Charlie Morton and Osvaldi Bido on the mound. Bido has been very splitsy and targetable with lefties – Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Wenceel Perez. Morton is still a legitimately decent pitcher, but the A’s have loads of power between Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, and Tyler Soderstrom at the top of the order. This game also has the best hitting weather on the slate.
Secondary Stacks – Nationals, Mets, Twins, Phillies
I mentioned Gil’s trouble with lefties so far this season, so the Nats’ power LHBs – James Wood, CJ Abrams, Josh Bell, Luis Garcia – look solid again here.
Bassitt’s another guy who’s yielded some power to lefties over the years – Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and James Outman will all swing it from the left side against him.
The Mets and Phillies are both facing decent pitcher, but both are talented enough offenses to do damage nevertheless. Luzardo’s much worse against righties – Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Mark Vientos are the standouts. Ditto for Manaea, so Trea Turner is a solid one-off on the Philly side.
Yordan Alvarez is back in our lives tonight. I’m kinda bearish on a potentially chalky Astros stack, but Alvarez makes for a stellar one-off.
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