10 games on the board for Monday’s MLB DFS slate. Luckily, it doesn’t look like we’ll have any weather concerns, and we’ve got a pretty good mix of high-end pitching and stacks worth paying up for.
Looks like a decent slate, all things considered, so let’s dive on in.
SP1 – Tarik Skubal, Jacob deGrom…Hunter Greene, Brandon Woodruff, Cristopher Sanchez
Solid 5-pack of aces at the top. Joe Ryan is also a person that exists, but I have no interest in paying for him in a tough matchup against the no-strikeout Blue Jays in Toronto.
Main Slate Tarik Skubal hasn’t gone well lately, but maybe a move to the west coast will cure what ails him. Or something. He’s getting a sizable park downgrade going into Sacramento, but there’s nothing about any of his numbers that suggests he’s tiring or anything like that. He also struck out 10 Astros and didn’t allow a run in his last outing, so there’s that.
Over the last 30 days, Skubal’s 29% strikeout rate is just a few percentage points lower than his season average (32.9%). He’s allowed some barreled balls to righties (17.7%), but still a sub-.300 wOBA with excellent control. We know the A’s have a lot of power (.209 ISO vs. LHP), and the only high-strikeout hitters in the projected lineup are Nick Kurtz, Colby Thomas, and JJ Bleday. Skubal won’t come cheap ($10,700 DK), but I’ll be heavily invested, as usual.
I think Skubal’s the overall SP1, but I assume the field will treat Jacob deGrom as something like the SP1-A at home against the Angels. DeGrom has excellent all-around numbers (27.2% Ks, 5.5% walks, 8.3% barrels), but he’s been extremely reverse-splitsy with the strikeouts over the last month – 37% vs. LHB, 20% vs. RHB. He’s gonna face a sea of righties in the Angels’ lineup, and LAA strikes out a ton (29.7%) to go along with all of their power. Most importantly, he’s $1,400 cheaper than Skubal on DK, and he projects similarly. Both are elite options in all formats, and I’m not overly concerned about deGrom’s weird strikeout splits of late.
The other 3 – Hunter Greene, Cristopher Sanchez, and Brandon Woodruff – are secondary GPP plays, in my opinion. Sanchez has similar numbers to deGrom across the board – with an awesome 56.7% groundball rate – but he gets a significantly tougher draw at the Mets. I expect Sanchez to be fine, as many of the Mets’ better hitters are also high-groundball bats, but I just prefer deGrom at the discount. The only reason to get to Sanchez would be for the likelihood he’s significantly less popular.
Next on my list would be Greene in LA to take on the Dodgers. His 32.2% K-rate for the year is up there with Skubal for the highest on the slate, and he’s reigned in the control and power issues that plagued him earlier in his career. There’s clear risk given the matchup and the homer-friendly ballpark, but I also think he’s a little too cheap at $9,000 for his skills. Another stellar deGrom pivot.
Woodruff ($10,000) is a leftover at home against Arizona. He’s been pretty lights-out since his return, and he threw a season-high 94 pitches in the last game. The Brewers have just been careful with his pitch count in general, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock if they held him to something like 75-80 just to manage his workload given their hefty division lead. I don’t think he’s a bad play in a vacuum, but given the context of the slate, my exposure will be pretty limited.
I’ll rank the SP1s as follows:
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Tarik Skubal | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Jacob deGrom | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Cristopher Sanchez | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Hunter Greene | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Brandon Woodruff | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Joe Ryan | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
SP2 – Max Scherzer, Jose Soriano, Eduardo Rodriguez, Cam Schlittler, Michael McGreevy, JT Ginn, Emmet Sheehan, Johan Oviedo
This is a wildly deep pitching slate. I think pairing a couple of expensive options together obviously looks fantastic, but you can make a case for just about every pitcher toeing the rubber somewhere tonight. You can add JP Sears to this list if you’re so inclined, but I don’t really think we need it.
As of now, I expect Max Scherzer to be my highest-owned pitcher in this tier. It’s 9:40 AM PT, so subject to change, but this is a pretty good spot for him at home against the Twins. Minnesota is striking out 23% of the time vs. RHP so far. Facing only 4 RHBs may not be ideal given Max’s splits, but $8,300 on DK is reasonable and the Twins only have a 3.48 implied run total.
I don’t know which version of Jose Soriano will show up tonight in Texas, and neither do you. When he’s right, he’s generating tons of groundballs and mixing in some Ks. When he isn’t, he’s walking everybody and getting BABIP’d to death. The Rangers haven’t been quite as poor against righties in general, but the $5,700 DK salary really stands out. He’s just better than the price tag would indicate, so I’m willing to roll the dice here.
Eduardo Rodriguez is similarly volatile. He’ll either twirl 6 sparkling innings without allowing a run, or he’ll allow 8 in the first inning. The Brewers, despite all of their success, still haven’t hit for a lot of power against lefties (.132 ISO), and there are a lot of groundballs here (46.7%). $6,200 is cheap for a guy with a track record of being a solid pitcher, so I don’t hate it.
Cam Schlittler nearly perfect game’d the Rays in his last start, and tonight he’ll throw baseballs to the Nationals at home. Schlittler’s 52.8% groundball rate vs. lefties really stands out against a lefty-heavy lineup, and Washington is another team hitting the ball on the ground a ton in the first place (47.8%). Schlittler’s also shown some strikeouts (26.4%) vs. LHB. There’s always power risk at Yankee Stadium – a prolific park for lefty power – but he’s another guy who might just be too cheap at $7,700.
Emmet Sheehan ($7,500) is more of a secondary play at home against the Reds. He’s yet another solid pitcher, but the Dodgers rarely extend him beyond 5 innings and/or 90 pitches. Both Johan Oviedo ($6,700) and Michael McGreevy ($6,300) are viable going against one another in a game with an implied run total of around 7. I much prefer McGreevy considering he’s cheaper and the Pirates are the worse of the 2 offenses, even if he’s only struck out 14% of hitters thus far.
JT Ginn continues to be very splitsy, with electric numbers against righties and dreadful results vs. lefties. The Tigers are expected to have 5 lefties in there against him with a big park upgrade going into Sacramento. $5,500 is awfully cheap for a guy with at least decent strikeout ability, but I prefer Soriano if I’m hunting in the sub-$6,000 range.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Max Scherzer | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Jose Soriano | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Cam Schlittler | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 4. Michael McGreevy | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Emmet Sheehan | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Eduardo Rodriguez | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 7. JT Ginn | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 8. Johan Oviedo | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Padres, Royals, Tigers, Yankees, Mariners
Your mileage may vary on the stacks, of course. On a slate with so much decent pitching, appealing offenses are a little harder to come by.
I think my first stop will be the Padres, even in pitcher-friendly Seattle. They’ll take their hacks against RHP Bryce Miller, who’s making just his 2nd start off the IL after missing a couple of months. I don’t think Miller is a bad pitcher by any means, but the strikeouts really haven’t been there this season (17.7%), while the control has been erratic (10.5% walks). He’s also an extreme flyball pitcher, so he’ll allow his fair share of home runs, even in this ballpark.
The Padres are also pretty cheap these days, as Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Ramon Laureano are the only bats over $4,000 on DK. Tatis, Machado, Laureano, and Gavin Sheets all have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP on the year, while Ryan O’Hearn (8.8%) and Jake Cronenworth (7.8%) have respectable enough results.
I suspect the Yankees will garner some ownership at home against Brad Lord. There’s just a ton of power here (.234 collective ISO) against right-handed pitching, though Lord isn’t terrible. He generally keeps the ball on the ground (52.1%) while he’s shown some strikeouts (23.9%) against lefties. If this stack is chalky I’ll probably be a little under the field, even if it’s uncomfortable. Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm, Ben Rice, and Trent Grisham are the headliners if you play ’em.
I like the spot for Kansas City going into Chicago to face Shane Smith and the White Sox’ woeful pen. Smith’s walk rate is north of 10%, and his overall numbers are middling, at best, against lefties. Vinnie Pasquantino and Mike Yastrzemski are the standouts from the left side, but I’m fine with the cheaper Kyle Isbel and John Rave in stacks. Bobby Witt Jr. is up there with Judge and Shohei Ohtani as the best individual bats on the slate. Sal Perez still has lots of power, too.
Power hunting with the Tigers and Mariners makes sense. We know JP Sears will yield power, particularly to righties, so I’m very in on Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, and Randy Arozarena here. It’s the opposite with the Tigers, as we prefer lefties against Ginn – Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel Perez, Colt Keith – and I’ll still get to Gleyber Torres from the right side at a wack 2nd base.
Secondary Stacks – Reds, Dodgers, Nationals, White Sox, Phillies
Both sides of the CIN/LAD game are viable for bats just because of the ballpark. Sheehan’s been getting barreled by lefties, so Elly De La Cruz + TJ Friedl + Gavin Lux makes for a decent mini-stack. I’m not dying to play against Hunter Greene, but Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and occasionally Mookie Betts are good baseballers.
Power hunting with Washington lefties is also in play, especially if Schlittler is gonna pull some ownership – CJ Abrams, James Wood, Josh Bell, Luis Garcia.
Kodai Senga is typically good, but he’s had some major control issues and he’s been generally thrashed by lefties since coming off the IL. Sounds good for Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
Noah Cameron isn’t bad, either, as he’s done a fine job of limiting power, but he’s pretty reliant on generating soft contact and enjoying some BABIP luck. Miguel Vargas, Lenyn Sosa, and Luis Robert bring the power from the right side.
Leave a Reply