It’s Saturday, yet there’s a distinct lack of daytime baseball games. What gives? We’re looking at a decently-sized main slate tonight kicking off at 7:05 PM ET, though, and I suppose that’ll have to do.
I’m a little short on time today, so this’ll be a bit more abbreviated than usual. Maybe that’s not the worst thing. Anyway, let’s go.
SP1 – Logan Webb, George Kirby, Freddy Peralta, Tyler Glasnow
We’ve got a nice 4-pack of aces at the top, and most of them are in decent enough spots. I’d expect the public to be a little lower on Logan Webb by virtue of his matchup with the red-hot Brewers. I get it, but the matchup looks sneaky good for him. Milwaukee’s projected lineup has hit the ball on the ground about 48% of the time vs. RHP, and Webb’s one of the game’s better groundball guys. He’s also upped his K-rate to about 28% over the past month. Even at an expensive salary, I like getting to Webb here, especially if we get an ownership discount.
Freddy Peralta on the other side of the matchup is a decent alternative, while I expect George Kirby to be the chalkiest of this bunch at home against the A’s. He’s cheaper than Peralta and Webb, and the numbers are comparable. We know the A’s have a lot of power, but the pitcher-friendly ballpark helps to mute that. Peralta’s wild control gives him a low floor, but the Giants have been striking out quite a bit (25.1%) against righties.
I don’t see much of a difference between the top 3. They’re all excellent plays. I think Tyler Glasnow is a pretty clear 4th in terms of priority. I expect him to be fine, but his walk rate is well into the double digits over the last month, and San Diego is a very low-K offense (18.8% vs. RHP). I’d get some shares of Glasnow in GPPs assuming he’ll be lower owned than the other expensive SPs, but this isn’t necessarily the spot to hunt a ceiling.
SP2 – Jack Leiter, Nestor Cortes, Cade Horton, Mick Abel
Things drop off quite a bit if you want to find a cheaper SP2. My favorite of this bunch is probably Jack Leiter at home against the Guardians. His K-rate is up to around 25% over the past month, and this isn’t the same low-K Cleveland offense we’ve seen in recent years. They generally look better against RHP, but for $6,600 I don’t mind rolling the dice here.
Mick Abel doesn’t project to be popular, but I could see him gaining some traction. He was a former top prospect for the Phillies who was the centerpiece of the Jhoan Duran trade last month. This will be his Twins debut after he posted a 41% K-rate in the minors after the trade. He got regularly roughed up when he was with the Phillies earlier in the year, and the White Sox aren’t pushovers these days. I suppose he’s talented enough to potentially pay off the $6,000 salary, but I think I’d be on the Chicago side of this.
Nestor Cortes has been pretty limited since his Padres debut on the heels of an injury, and tonight he gets the Dodgers. There’s significant risk, of course, and I prefer Leiter, but $7,000 is reasonable enough for a guy with a history of being a passable source of strikeouts.
Cade Horton has upped the K-rate to around 24% over the past month, though he’s under 20% for the season. A matchup with the Angels is generally good for strikeouts (27.3%) vs. RHP. Horton’s 13% barrel rate vs. RHB could be problematic against a lineup with a lot of right-handed power, but $7,300 on DK will do.
Primary Stacks – Mets, Cubs, Orioles, Twins
As was the case yesterday, the Cubs and Mets will be atop my wish list. New York will take on Cal Quantrill in his Braves debut. The Marlins had enough of this guy, and Atlanta just needs warm bodies to eat innings. Quantrill’s historically worse against RHBs (12.6% Ks, .422 wOBA), so Pete Alonso is possibly the top hitter on the entire slate, while I like Mark Vientos as a cheapie. Quantrill’s been a bit more respectable against lefties, but the Mets’ lefties are good enough (Lindor, Soto, Nimmo, etc.) to make the full stack look excellent again.
The Cubs were a bit underwhelming last night, but they’re facing another poor pitcher in Victor Mederos. This guy had an 18% K-rate at Triple-A, so something tells me he won’t overpower MLB hitters. Lefties have hit him well early on, and the low strikeouts from Mederos are enough to get me back on the wagon with Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong. They both homered last night amid some recent struggles, so maybe they’re coming around. The rest of the stack beyone Seiya Suzuki is nice and cheap – Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch, Ian Happ.
The O’s and Twins aren’t as obvious, but they’re in solid spots of their own. I’m not really a believer in a post-injury Cristian Javier, and the Baltimore lineup has a lot of affordable hitters beyond Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday at the top. Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, and Ryan Mountcastle round things out. Minnesota takes on Davis Martin, a low-strikeout righty with a 10% barrel rate allowed. Byron Buxton is the daily standout, while Kody Clemens, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner are useful values.
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