Another Wednesday means another split-slate kinda day, but we’re still looking at a healthy 8-game main event tonight. We’re once again tangling with what to do with the Dodgers at Coors against the Rockies’ dreadful pitching staff. Dodger stacks on DraftKings won’t include Shohei Ohtani as a hitter because he’s LA’s starting pitcher, but he’s only hitter-eligible on FanDuel.
We’ve also got a bit of a tangled mess on the pitching side, with a bunch of young arms and a glaring lack of established aces. That’ll make things interesting from an ownership standpoint, as usual. Let’s see if we can figure things out.
SP1 – Jacob Misiorowski, Hurston Waldrep, Noah Cameron
See? There’s plenty of talent on the high end tonight, but we’re dealing with small MLB samples for each of these rookies.
In terms of skills, it’s pretty clear the top guy is Jacob Misiorowski. The right-hander has a 36% strikeout rate, including an utterly dominant 43.8% mark against his fellow righties. The control (11.5% walks) is erratic, particularly vs. lefties (15.1%), but he hasn’t allowed much power overall. The Cubs are a decent matchup with Kyle Tucker presumably still sitting out, and we’ve got MASSIVE winds of nearly 20 miles an hour blowing in from left in the most wind-sensitive park in baseball.
As always, the question is what kind of a leash the Brewers will give him. In his last 3 outings, Misiorowski’s thrown 64, 80, and 54 pitches, though it’s worth noting he was getting fucking shelled by the Reds in that last game. He hasn’t topped 4 innings in a game since July 8, and he hasn’t tossed more than 91 pitches in a game since his debut.
Misiorowski has enough strikeout upside to be a viable option even at $9,300 despite the risk, and the weather sure doesn’t hurt.
Hurston Waldrep is one of Atlanta’s top pitching prospects, and he’s posted a 25.8% strikeout rate since his debut along with a 7.6% walk rate and next to now power allowed. The 50% groundball rate looks nice, though the matchup against the White Sox (20.6% strikeouts, 8.8% walks vs. RHP) isn’t a total breeze. Waldrep got up to 95 pitches in the last game, so he may have a longer leash than the Miz, which is useful.
Noah Cameron isn’t the same strikeout pitcher (19.5%) as Misiorowski or Waldrep, but he does benefit from a favorable matchup against a Texas lineup that hasn’t hit lefties all year (.120 ISO, .267 wOBA, 25.5% strikeouts). I expect Cameron to be decent enough in this spot, it’s just a matter of whether you want to pay $9,000 for a run-prevention type of play that may not come with much K upside.
On DraftKings, I’ll rank Waldrep slightly ahead of Misiorowski given the discount and potentially longer leash. I’d put Cameron third of the three, though he’s still quite viable. On FanDuel, I’ll rank them Waldrep ($9,100), Cameron ($9,300), then Misiorowski ($9,800).
SP2 – JP Sears, JT Ginn, Landen Roupp, Shohei Ohtani (DK), Yusei Kikuchi, Tanner Gordon (DK)
The most talented pitchers in this lot are clearly Ohtani (DK only) and Yusei Kikuchi. Ohtani is still cheap for his skills (33.7% Ks, 4.2% walks), but he comes with some caveats. One is the pitch count. The Dodgers let him get up to a season-high 80 pitches in the last game, but I doubt there’s much upside beyond that. I expect him to be capped around 80 pitches or 5 innings – whichever comes first. The second roadblock is that he’s in Colorado, albeit against a mostly-garbage Rockies lineup. I think he’s viable as a secondary option on DK in GPPs.
Kikuchi doesn’t have the same strikeout upside or excellent control Ohtani does, and he’s more expensive for a home date with the Reds. On the bright side, Cincinnati has been a punchless group against lefties (23% Ks, .126 ISO, .309 wOBA). Kikuchi also has an unquestionable leash with the Angels routinely letting him top 100 pitches. Efficiency has been an issue for him, and he’s not exactly cheap at $8,500 on DK and $9,600 on FD. I’d rather just take the discount with Ohtani.
If anyone’s chalk amongst these pitchers, I expect it to be JP Sears ($6,000 DK, $7,200 FD) at home against the Giants. Sears is about as average as it gets (20.2% Ks, solid control, power issues), but this is a matchup play. Petco Park is pitcher-friendly, and the Giants haven’t handled lefties well at all (25.7% Ks, .130 ISO, .291 wOBA). I’m not thrilled with a guy who was demoted to the minors after his last start suddenly becoming chalk upon his return, but he’s so cheap that it doesn’t really matter. Looks like a great play, even into ownership.
JT Ginn continues to be very splitsy, destroying his fellow righties (33.3% Ks, 3.2% walks, .150 ISO) while struggling considerably with lefties (17.3% Ks, 11.8% walks, .305 ISO). He’s getting groundballs to hitters from both sides, though Minnesota is projected to throw 5 LHBs his way. These aren’t 5 Ohtani-level lefties, of course, and he’s even cheaper than Sears at $5,800 on DK. I like Ginn as a Sears ownership pivot.
Landen Roupp is on the other side of Sears’ matchup against the Padres in San Diego. He’s another righty with some splitsy strikeout numbers (24.6% vs. RHB, 19% vs. LHB), though the Padres are one of the lowest-K groups in the sport (16.8% vs. RHP). Just a dice roll.
If you’re feeling frisky, Tanner Gordon is a wee $4,300 on DK against the Dodgers in Coors. He’s pretty terrible, but just about anyone this cheap is viable in large-field, multi-entry lotto tournaments.
Primary Stacks – Dodgers, Angels, A’s, Braves, Royals
Yeah, so Gordon is not good, as evidenced by his paltry 13.3% strikeout rate. He does have solid control and some groundball skills against righties, but he’s pretty much a zero vs. LHBs. Ohtani on FanDuel is the top hitter on the slate by a mile. It’s not the most exciting crop of lefties beyond him with Max Muncy out. Freddie Freeman, sure, but it’s not thrilling to play Alex Freeland and Michael Conforto, especially into ownership. Will Smith is probably my favorite option here, and I don’t mind one-offing him. At first glance, I’m likely to be pretty under the field on LA, especially on DK where we can’t play Ohtani as a bat.
The Angels draw Nick Martinez at home. Stacking against him is generally unpredictable. Sometimes he’s taking a no-hitter into the 9th inning. Other times, he’s hitting the showers by the third. The overall numbers are pretty underwhelming, with just a 17% strikeout rate and an ISO north of .180 vs. hitters from both sides. We’re more concerned with RHBs in the Angels’ righty-heavy lineup.
Looks like an awesome Zach Neto spot, followed by Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, and Jo Adell. Nolan Schanuel is generally unexciting, but Martinez is poor enough against lefties to get him into stacks.
The A’s are still in Minneapolis, and this time they’ll take their swings against the volatile Bailey Ober. His numbers this season are particularly dreadful against lefties (15.6% Ks, .226 ISO, .355 wOBA), but he’s been barreled up 10.7% of the time overall. The top of the lineup – Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Colby Thomas – is fun, while you can find savings with Brett Harris, Lawrence Butler, and Luis Urias if they crack the order.
Atlanta draws old man Martin Perez, who I did not realize was still kickin’ around. He’s got some Nick Martinez in him in that he’s a wily enough veteran to potentially weasel his way through a few innings, and he’s likely more of a long opener than a straight starter. Righties who hit the ball in the air are preferred against the groundball lefty. Ronald Acuna Jr., Jurickson Profar, Ozzie Albies, Nacho Alvarez, and Sean Murphy fit the bill, but I’d still get to Matt Olson and Michael Harris in full stacks considering the Braves will likely get plenty of the weak Chicago bullpen behind Perez.
The Royals draw Kumar Rocker, who’s getting plenty of groundballs overall along with decent strikeout to righties. He hasn’t quite figured LHBs out yet – putting Vinnie Pasquantino and Mike Yastrzemski atop the wish list – but I’d obviously get to Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Perez, and Salvador Perez if fully stacking KC.
Secondary Stacks – Rays, Twins, Reds, Rangers
As mentioned, Ginn’s numbers are poor enough against lefties to make a mini-stack of the Minnesota LHBs look pretty good – Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Kody Clemens – while I’m still good with Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall from the right side.
Cam Schlittler has shown some strikeout stuff (22.9%), but he’s also been wild (10.7% walks) and isn’t keeping the ball on the ground. Brandon Lowe is one of my favorite hitters on the slate, while I’m into Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero to round out the mini-stack.
Texas, while trash against lefties, still has decent hitters, and I’m not blown away enough by Cameron’s skills to fully avoid attacking him. Wyatt Langford, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Josh Jung would be the guys, while I don’t mind power hunting with Kyle Higashioka if he’s in there.
Cincy’s righty power against Kikuchi hardly jumps off the page, but Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Miguel Andujar, and Austin Hays are fine plays.
Not dying to pick on Drew Rasmussen, but I’ll still one-off Aaron Judge.
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