Hello. It’s Thursday, which is typically a light day in the MLB streets, and we’re lookin’ at a smallish 6-game main slate tonight. This game is going up against some crappy NFL game, so baseball contests are predictably terrible, but it is what it is. Just 4 days left in the regular season, so enjoy it while it lasts.
Let’s see what’s out there and try to win some money, shall we?
MLB DFS Pitchers for Thursday
- Cam Schlittler ($11,500, vs. Rays)
- Tyler Glasnow ($10,500, vs. Padres)
- Bryan Woo ($8,500, vs. Angels)
- Nick Pivetta ($8,300, at Dodgers)
- Ian Seymoooour ($8,200, at Yankees)
- Ranger Suarez ($7,900, vs. Guardians)
- Tyler Mahle ($7,700, vs. Reds)
- Grayson Rodriguez ($5,500, at Mariners)
The Yankees are locked into their playoff spot and seed, so we’ll see what kind of leash they give Cam Schlittler in his last start of the regular season. New York is gonna have to play the Wild Card Round starting next Tuesday, and it’s safe to assume he’ll be the one on the mound for that. They let Gerrit Cole throw 105 pitches yesterday. They haven’t given Schlitty any kind of cap down the stretch, but I’d be a bit nervous about plunging $11,500 into him tonight. He is the best pitcher on the slate, but he’s hardly the only option, and a matchup against a Rays offense with a tiny 16.9% strikeout rate vs. RHP isn’t ideal in the first place.
Schlittler is still playable if you’re not worried about a pitch cap, of course. If he’s going to go super low-owned, that’s one reason to give him a longer look.
The Dodgers are in a different boat than the Yankees. Their chances of catching the Brewers for the NL’s top seed have likely sailed, though LA is going to have a first-round bye, which means they won’t start their postseason until the weekend of October 5. Tyler Glasnow has worked his way back up to a full leash after missing months with a back issue. Yoshinobu Yamamoto only lasted 88 pitches last night, but he also still got through 6 innings.
If you told me Glasnow would get to 6 innings tonight, I’d be happy to play him at $10,500. His 33% K-rate for the season is higher than Schlittler’s in a much smaller sample, and with Glasnow, it’s generally a matter of whether he has his command. The Padres (.168 ISO, .324 wOBA, 20.7% Ks, 9.1% walks) are an average matchup for a righty. I still lean toward thinking 90 pitches is more likely than 100, but I also tend to think Glasnow is more likely to creep closer to 100 than Schlittler.
The Mariners kept their season alive with a walk-off win last night, but, in reality, they’re already dead. They’ll welcome the Angels to town for a season-ending 4-game series starting tonight. Bryan Woo has been much better at home all year, while the Angels are the same high-strikeout, mediocre offense they’ve been just about all year (26.3% Ks, .150 ISO, .307 wOBA). Because the Mariners are still mathematically alive, and because Dan Wilson is probably a dead man walking, I assume we’ll see a full workload for Woo in this one, as we’ve also seen with Logan Gilbert and George Kirby this week.
Woo’s up to 33.9% Ks vs. RHBs over the past month, and he’s always had more strikeout stuff against same-handed hitters. The only lefties in the Halos’ projected lineup are Wade Meckler, Moises Ballesteros, Josh Lowe, and Adam Frazier, and Woo is just $8,500. I suspect he’ll be heavy chalk, but that seems reasonable.
Nick Pivetta faces the Dodgers. He’s been great when healthy (29.2% Ks, 5.8% walks, .097 ISO, .244 wOBA), but we’re looking at a small sample there, and the Dodgers are pretty much back to full strength offensively. Not a bad pivot off of Woo if you’re feeling courageous, but obviously not a remotely safe one, either. Then again, no pitcher is really safe.
Will Ian Seymoooour pitch tonight? We shall see. He’s only $8,200 after he was $8,500 pre-scratch yesterday. What I wrote then still applies: The Rays aren’t playing for anything, and they tend to baby their pitchers. I had that concern with Drew Rasmussen yesterday, and all he did was go out there and strike out 11 Yankees while throwing 114 (!?!?!) pitches. They did clinch in that game, though, so maybe that’s why. Who’s to say? Ian Seymooooour has an impressive 29% K-rate on the year, but he’s also yielding quite a bit of power (.218 ISO) along with his flyball lean. Seymoooour also hasn’t cracked 90 pitches since August 20th, for what it’s worth. I’m not scared of a matchup against the Aaron Judge-free Yankees (.181 ISO, .323 wOBA, 22.7% Ks), so I think Seymoooour is playable in larger-field GPPs.
The Red Sox have also clinched, and they held Sonny Gray to 77 pitches against Cleveland last night. He was still efficient and pretty good in those 77 pitches, but they could certainly take a similar cautious approach with Ranger Suarez tonight. Suarez has solid numbers across the board, while Cleveland (.143 ISO, .322 wOBA) is just not a very good offense against lefties. They’re also a high-contact lot (18.1%), but Suarez is also just $7,900. I suppose he’s okay.
Tyler Mahle gets a #RevengeGame several times removed against the Reds at home. He’s done a great job of limiting power and keeping the ball on the ground since coming to Atlanta, while the Reds (26.4%) continue to strike out a ton vs. RHP. They also have a lot of power (.188 ISO). The Braves are another team who’ll have to play in next week’s Wild Card Round, and Mahle’s presumably the No. 2 starter behind Chris Sale. In related news, I don’t really think the Braves are much of a threat.
This is yet another pitcher who could be on a shorter-than-usual leash, but for $7,700 and in a high-strikeout matchup, I don’t mind rolling the dice.
Lastly, I must mention Grayson Rodriguez, because it is in my contract to mention Grayson Rodriguez. He gets a significant park boost going into Seattle to face those hapless Mariners. He’s been decent against RHBs this season with fairly ghastly numbers against lefties, just like Ethan Pecko before him. We know Seattle can load up on lefties, but we also know they’re just not consistently playing up to their talent level this year, for whatever reason. Over the last month, the M’s have a collective 23.6% strikeout rate with a .153 ISO and .311 wOBA vs. RHP. If you need a punt, G-Rod is just $5,500.
SP Rankings
- Woo
- Glasnow
- Mahle
- Seymoooour
- Suarez
- Rodriguez
- Schlittler
- Pivetta
MLB DFS Stacks for Thursday
- Astros (at Mason Barnett)
- A’s (vs. Peter Lambert)
- Braves (vs. Brady Singer)
- Yankees (vs. Ian Seymoooour)
- Mariners (vs. G-Rod)
- Padres (at Tyler Glasnow)
We don’t have Coors, but we do have Sacramento, so I’m assuming this will be the chalky game for bats. The Astros will face Mason Barnett, a right-hander with atrocious numbers in every regard. He’s allowed a .253 ISO and .395 wOBA overall along with a walk rate of over 13%. He has shown some strikeout stuff vs. RHBs (27.8%), for what it’s worth.
Yordan Alvarez is just a crazy mismatch for him, but he’s the only left-handed hitter of note here now that Daulton Varsho has cysts on his wrist that are so painful that he can’t even swing a bat. This was a known issue when he was in Toronto, and the Astros traded for him anyway. Brilliant stuff. Anyway, Isaac Paredes, Yainer Diaz, and Jeremy Pena are the right-handed hitters in which I have the most faith, while Christian Walker and Cam Smith are inconsistent sources of power.
The A’s draw Peter Lambert on the other side. He continues to pitch fairly well without a major platoon split. Just hunting for power here makes sense – Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Donovan Walton, and Henry Bolte.
I like Seymour, but he has allowed plenty of power, with even more (.271 ISO) to his fellow lefties. Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger have handled same-handed pitching pretty well. Paul Goldschmidt, Heliot Ramos, and George Lombard (tiny sample) have excellent numbers vs. LHP, too.
The Braves haven’t done much with their great matchups so far in this series, and they’ll face Brady Singer tonight. He’s had a poor season overall, and he’s gone right back to allowing a ton of power over the last month to hitters from both sides. LHBs historically have the edge against him, so leading stacks with Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Mike Yastrzemski looks like the play. Add Ronald Acuna Jr. to the pile if he returns.
We’re all exhausted of the Mariners, but G-Rod’s poor numbers against lefties make JP Crawford, Dom Canzone, Cal Raleigh, Cole Young, Lazaro Montes, and Josh Naylor look like solid plays again.
I’ll note the Padres just because Tyler Glasnow is terrible at holding runners, so if he doesn’t have his control, the Padres could do some runnin’. Fernando Tatis Jr., Dustin Harris, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackson Merrill are the standouts in that regard. Ditto for Samad Taylor if he randomly starts.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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