Well, folks, congrats on making it back to another Monday. And what a Monday it is. We’re looking at 8 games in the MLB DFS streets, though, based on the weather in Minneapolis, it sounds like there’s a real chance this’ll become a 7-gamer. We shall see.
Pitching looks kinda hard to come by, while Coors Field is back with the Padres in town. Yippee! I reckon we might as well dive in. Let us dive.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Monday
- Troy Melton ($9,000, at Blue Jays)
- Reid Detmers ($8,800, vs. Mariners)
- Sandy Alcantara ($8,700, at DBax)
- Jose Soriano ($8,500, vs. Tigers)
- Kade Anderson ($8,200, at Angels)
- Landen Roupp ($7,900, at Cardinals)
- Quinn Mathews ($7,700, vs. Giants)
- Jonah Tong ($7,500, vs. Orioles)
- Will Warren ($7,300, at Twins)
- Dean Kremer ($6,600, vs. Yankees)
- David Peterson ($6,200, vs. Braves)
There are a lot of playable pitchers on this slate, yet most of them project pretty poorly and/or are in tougher spots. I don’t know who DraftKings thinks Troy Melton is, but he is perpetually and inexplicably very expensive despite not being particularly good. I suppose a matchup against the trash-ass Blue Jays is fine, but it’s a guy with a 20% strikeout rate facing one of the lowest-strikeout offenses in the league. I will probably have 0% of this dweeb.
I don’t know who DraftKings thinks Reid Detmers is, but he is perpetually and inexplicably very inexpensive despite being pretty good. His 28.4% K-rate on the season is the highest on this slate by some distance, and he’s massively improved the control issues that plagued him in the past. The Mariners have spent the entire season with their bellies up, and they’ve been particularly belly-up lately. Over the last month, this lineup has a collective 23.7% strikeout rate, .135 ISO, and .292 wOBA vs. left-handed pitching. Is that good? It is if you’re Reid Detmers, at least.
Aces love to pitch like shit, especially when they’re the only real ace on a slate. The case for playing Mariners tonight is an obvious one, but Detmers, naturally, is the pitcher in whom I have the most confidence to lead the slate in the ever-important “fantasy points” metric.
Sandy Alcantara has a 17.1% strikeout rate. The DBax, collectively, have an 18.7% strikeout rate vs. RHP. DraftKings thinks you should pay $8,700 for a guy who’s entirely reliant on innings and run prevention. I think I’d rather play Troy Melton, and I’m not playing Troy Melton.
Angels legend Jose Soriano will oppose Melton, which means he’ll oppose the Tigers. Since coming to Toronto, Soriano’s walk rate is down from 10.3% to just 7%, though that improved control seems to have come at the expense of some strikeouts, as his K-rate is way down to just 15.6% from 22.6% on the season. I should also note Soriano’s groundball rate is back up to elite levels (59%). I do think Soriano has more strikeout stuff in the tank than Alcantara does, especially against a Detroit lineup that’ll do more striking out against RHP (22.1%). This still feels like $8,500 for a run-prevention spot, though at least the Tigers have a low 3.52 implied total. I guess he’s fine. Never feels great.
Kade Anderson is one of the most-hyped pitching prospects we’ve had in a while. He sure doesn’t sound like a guy who’s excited to try and improve – definitely something you want to hear from a 22-year-old! – though he did put together a nice outing in his most recent one against the Rangers. Tonight, the lefty will get to face the punchless Angels, an offense we’ve picked on relentlessly all year thanks to their 25.5% K-rate vs. LHP. There’s also just way less righty power here than there was at the beginning of the year.
Anderson hasn’t been good (18.4% Ks, 9.2% walks), but he’s also affordable ($8,200) and facing the Angels on a shitty pitching slate. Pairing him with Detmers will be a popular approach. I’m certainly on board with an Angels stack as a result, as the Anderson chalk is far shakier than the Detmers chalk, IMO. Anderson is still a solid play in his own right, though I’d expect him to pull far more ownership than Soriano, for what it’s worth.
Corbin Burnes is back, but he threw just 57 pitches in his first outing back from TJ, and he might just be washed.
Landen Roupp has really sucked lately, with a higher walk rate (13.5%) than strikeout rate (12.4%) over the last month. It’s not what you want! He’s still keeping the ball on the ground (50.8%) and limiting power (.115 ISO), and this St. Louis offense (.153 ISO, .322 wOBA) ain’t great. Roupp has also been held to 75 and 81 pitches, respectively, in his last 2 outings, the last of which happened to come against the same Cardinals offense he’ll face this evening. Meh!
Quinn Mathews will also face the same team he faced last time, though with one Rafael Devers-sized caveat. Rafael Devers is out injured. The Giants were already a total horror show against lefties, and now they’re even more horror showy (.158 ISO, .293 wOBA, 23.2% Ks). I think Mathews is a solid young pitcher even if the overall numbers are middling (20.4% Ks, 10.2% walks). I’m happy to play a lefty against this version of the Giants, and he’s only $7,700. I like Mathews quite a bit, especially as a Kade pivot.
Jonah Tong is another good prospect, and he returned to the Mets’ rotation with a so-so outing last week against Miami. He has a career 23.2% K-rate with an 11% walk rate in limited work at the MLB level over the past couple of years, though he showed much more K upside at the lower levels. He will have to face a vengeful Pete Alonso at home tonight, but the Orioles have become one of the highest-strikeout lineups in the league vs. RHP (25.1%). They’re a lot like the Reds at this point. Lots of strikeouts, lots of power, and that’s about it. I prefer the matchup for Mathews for just $200 more, but I don’t think Tong is a bad play at all if you land there.
Will Warren and Dean Kremer are both in Minnesota, so we’ll see if they even play. I do think Kremer is a solid value at $6,600, as he’s just a more talented pitcher than that salary. The Yankees have a lot of power and also a ton of strikeouts these days (23.9%).
David Peterson is never a fun roster, but he keeps the ball on the ground (50.6%), and the Braves (.162 ISO, .309 wOBA) have not been elite at all vs. left-handed pitching. Peterson will have the platoon edge against most of Atlanta’s better hitters, too. I’d rather play Kremer – weather permitting – but if weather does not permit, I’ll have a little more interest in Peterson as a full punt.
SP Rankings
- Detmers
- Anderson
- Mathews
- Soriano
- Tong
- Kremer
- Peterson
- Warren
- Roupp
MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Padres (at Tomoyuki Sugano)
- Rockies (vs. Casey Mize)
- DBax (vs. Sandy Alcantara)
- Cubs (vs. Reynaldo Lopez)
- Orioles (at Jonah Tong)
- Braves (vs. David Peterson)
- Yankees (at Dean Kremer)
- Mets (vs. Brandon Young)
- Mariners (at Reid Detmers)
- Angels (vs. Kade Anderson)
So yeah, Coors Field. Tomoyuki Sugano continues to strike nobody out while allowing a ton of power, definitely a combination you want for a pitcher on the Rockies. The only reason to fade the Padres tonight is the ownership, to be honest. I suppose another reason is that the Padres just aren’t a great offense, but it’s hard not to have interest. Fernando Tatis Jr. remembered how to hit dongs, and since that happened, he’s hit a lot of them. Very clearly the top overall play on the slate at any position and worth prioritizing regardless of whether you stack him with any of his brown-wearing friends.
Jackson Merrill (19.6%) is the only other Padre consistently barreling up right-handed pitching over the last month. Manny Machado (.372 wOBA, .175 ISO) has been solid, while Ethan Salas (.167 ISO) has done a little slugging in a tiny sample of PAs since his arrival from the minors. Dustin Harris is a cheapie projected to hit high in the order, while I guess you can fill things out with guys like Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth. Maybe a mini-stack is the best way to approach these guys at extreme ownership.
The Rockies (.153 ISO, .310 wOBA) have hit the skids with the bats over the last month, and they’ll face the more talented pitcher here in Casey Mize. Mize has not pitched all that well since coming to San Diego, though, and, ya know, it’s still Coors. Hunter Goodman and Mickey Moniak have the highest season-long barrel rates here vs. RHP, while Zac Veen and Adael Amador have done damage in smaller samples. I still quite like Cole Carrigg, Jake McCarthy, and TJ Rumfield against righties, so the full stack looks pretty good. The only issue – as always when stacking against the Padres – is San Diego’s elite bullpen behind the starter.
The Rockies have baseball’s worst bullpen. The Padres have baseball’s best bullpen. I suppose Coors is The Great Equalizer, and if the Rockies can do some damage against Mize early, they’ll stand a better chance at avoiding some of the Padres’ elite bullpen hands. In terms of full lineup quality, I think the Rockies are just better than the Padres, so I’d rather fully stack the Rockies on this slate, especially since that’ll come with less ownership. If I die, I die.
If there’s anything outside of Coors likely to go nuclear, I’d say it’s the Cubs against the underwhelming Reynaldo Lopez. We have slightly hitter-friendly wind at Wrigley tonight, while Lopez has mediocre numbers across the board, especially against left-handed bats. I like Pete Crow-Armstrong nearly as much as I like Tatis on this slate, yet PCA will come at a fraction of FTJ’s ownership. The rest of the Cubs’ LHBs aren’t great – Michaels Busch and Conforto, Ian Happ, Pedro Ramirez – but I don’t respect Lopez enough against righties to get me off of guys like Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, or Nico Hoerner. I don’t think this team will be that popular, so that’s a plus, too.
Sandy Alcantara is a passable real-life pitcher who generally doesn’t get blown up, but you can play some lefties against him – Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Lars Nootbaar, Geraldo Perdomo, and Pavin Smith have the platoon edge here.
Both offenses in the SEA-LAA game look interesting for leverage against the chalk pitchers. Detmers will be chalkier than Anderson, and – despite all of the evidence to the contrary – I still have random faith that the Mariners aren’t terrible. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Dom Canzone, and Taylor Ward (revenge!) is a solid 5-man with some power upside.
The numbers say Anderson really hasn’t been good at all since coming to the majors, so the Angels are capable of wrecking this chalk despite their own lack of talent. Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Jose Siri, Denzer Guzman, and Oswald Peraza all have barrel rates on the right side of 10% this year vs. LHP. Christian Moore has big power, too.
David Peterson has endured his fair share of meltdowns this season, though most of those happened when he still had the Mets’ stank on him. RHBs (.354 wOBA) have done some damage, at least. Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, and Austin Riley are decent right-handed bats. Not thrilled about this at all, though.
If the weather holds, the Yankees are certainly capable of breaking the slate against a pitcher allowing a .246 ISO on the season with big power numbers to hitters of either handedness. Kremer has generally been much more effective vs. RHBs, and the Yankees are laden with lefty power (Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Spencer Jones, Luis Garcia, Ryan McMahon).
Brandon Young (.274 ISO) is back to allowing a lot of power over the last month. Lefties generally have the advantage here. I never mind getting to Francisco Lindor, Carson Benge, and Juan Soto. Jared Young has sneaky pop, while Brett Baty quietly has a 10.8% barrel rate vs. opposite-handed pitching on the year. Pretty good large-field stack.
I assume Pete Alonso is going to hit some dongs now that he’s back at Citi Field, for what it’s worth.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply