Howdy howdy. It is Wednesday, and it is also July. A Thing Like That.
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7 games on the board for tonight’s slate, so let’s get it.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for July 1
- Shane Drohan ($7,000, vs. CIN)
- Max Meyer ($8,800, at COL)
- Taj Bradley ($8,300, at HOU)
- Shane McClanahan ($8,500, at KC)
- Tatsuya Imai ($7,300, vs. MIN)
- Trevor McDonald ($6,700, at AZ)
- Charlie Barnes ($4,000, at ATH)
It seems we get a bunk-ass pitching slate once or twice a week these days, and today, apparently, is that day for this week. There is nobody priced north of $9,000 taking the mound tonight, which is pretty rare.
Max Meyer headlines the lot at $8,800, but he’s in Coors to face the Rockies. It’s obviously a massive park downgrade for Meyer, while the Rockies (.198 ISO, .345 wOBA, 22% Ks vs. RHP) really haven’t been a bad offense. The top 4 hitters have flashed quite a bit of power, as has Cole Carrigg in a smaller sample since his promotion.
Meyer (26.6% Ks, 9% walks, 43.8% groundballs) has pitched well all season. I’m wary of his control problems (12.1% walks) against LHBs, and he’ll likely see 6 of those in this one. I’ll have plenty of exposure to Meyer almost by default. I don’t love anything about it, but that’s the nature of the slate. He should be fine.
My highest-exposed pitcher will probably be Shane Drohan, if that gives you an idea as to what we’re lookin’ at tonight. Drohan, a lefty, gets a matchup at home against a Reds team striking out at a healthy 23.8% clip vs. southpaws on the year. Drohan (23.9% Ks, 7.8% walks, 43.9% groundballs) has pitched well since joining the Brewers’ rotation. I will admit the Reds have hit for a shitload of power (.239 ISO) against left-handers, but Drohan (.126 ISO, .290 wOBA) has limited damage. He also threw a season-high 98 pitches in his last outing against this same Cincy squad. He wasn’t particularly efficient – lasting just 4.1 innings – but he did hold the Reds scoreless. At $7,000, I’m in.
Tatsuya Imai is showing signs of figuring it out for the Astros and he’s another guy the MLB DFS projections like. His 28.7% K-rate on the season looks pretty legit. His undoing has been his sketchy control (12.4% walks), but he’s been absolutely fantastic over the last month. His strikeout rate is up to a whopping 39.5% in that span, while his walk rate is down at just 6.6%. I’m certainly not suggesting that version of Imai is the real one, but there’s quite a ceiling here at just $7,300 for a matchup at home against the Twins. Minnesota is a pretty neutral matchup – and they’re substantially worse if Byron Buxton remains out. A Drohan + Imai pairing is totally fine on this slate.
The enigmatic Taj Bradley takes the ball on the other side of that game against Houston. The strikeouts (25.4%) are good, the walks (9.8%), not so much. Bradley is talented, just inconsistent. The Astros have been a surprisingly potent offense vs. right-handed pitching (.203 ISO, .341 wOBA), though Bradley has had far more success limiting damage against righties. Most of Houston’s best bats are right-handed. If he can survive Yordan Alvarez – which Joe Ryan could not – Bradley should be okay. I like Bradley about as much as I like Meyer.
Let’s talk about the $4,000 guy, Charlie Barnes. He’s getting called up to take part in the Dodgers’ bullpen game tonight in Sacramento. He may not start the game, but I’d expect a few innings out of him. Barnes isn’t a prospect. He’s a 30-year-old journeyman. The thing is, he’s $4,000, and something like 10 points from a $4,000 guy may go a long way on such a shitty pitching slate. Barnes is left-handed, and the A’s have been much more strikeout-prone (25.8%) against LHP. There’s a lot of risk, especially with the A’s power, but, hey. This slate sucks, after all.
Shane McClanahan? He’s probably the biggest name on this slate, but the 2026 version of McClanahan (23.4% Ks, 9% walks, 4.04 SIERA) is more of a guy than the ace he used to be. Kansas City isn’t a powerful bunch against LHP (.140 ISO), but they’re also not high-K (19.7%). McClanahan is okay, he just falls into no-man’s land at $8,500. I probably won’t have a ton of exposure here.
Trevor McDonald has an ERA pushing 5, but his SIERA is about a run lower. McDonald is heavy on groundballs (57.5%), while he’s more average for strikeouts (19.7%) and walks (8.3%). There’s nothing spectacular about any of this. The DBax are a very low-strikeout lineup (17.9%), but they’re also pretty light in the power department (.160 ISO, .318 wOBA). I’m not scared enough of the matchup to keep McDonald out of my pool at $6,700, but he’s hardly a priority with Drohan and Imai offering higher ceilings at similar salaries.
SP Rankings
- Drohan
- Imai
- Meyer
- Bradley
- Barnes
- McClanahan
- McDonald
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Wednesday
- Marlins (at Kyle Freeland)
- Giants (at Zac Gallen)
- Rays (at Seth Lugo)
- Reds (at Shane Drohan)
- Dodgers (at JT Ginn)
- Brewers (vs. Andrew Abbott)
- Cardinals (at Reynaldo Lopez)
We’re set for another go-round with the Marlins at Coors, this time against the crappy veteran lefty, Kyle Freeland. Freeland used to have groundball skills, but those are long gone. Righties (.276 ISO, .417 wOBA, 12.4%) are lighting him on fire, though he’s still doing respectable work against same-handed bats.
Miami’s best bats against LHP are Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Heriberto Hernandez, Javier Sanoja, and, weirdly, Esteury Ruiz, albeit in a small sample. Kyle Stowers has still hit for some power vs. LHP. You’re not gonna be starstruck by your lineups if you’re stacking Miami, but the matchup is excellent.
I’m also into the Giants against the wilted husk formerly known as Zac Gallen. I’m not sure how this guy declined so rapidly, but he did. Gallen’s strikeout rate for the season is a hilarious 13.3%. He’s allowed lots of barrels – especially to lefties (11.2%) – while hitters from both sides have hit for power. The Giants ain’t great in their own right, but I’m going right back to the well with Luis Arraez, Bryce Eldridge/Rafael Devers, Casey Schmitt, and Jung Hoo Lee. Hopefully Willy Adames and/or Matt Chapman will play, as well.
The Cardinals will take on righty Reynaldo Lopez, who’s apparently back in the Atlanta rotation. Lopez is not good. He’s walking a hilarious number of lefties (18%) without generating strikeouts or groundballs. Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Bryan Torres, and Nathan Church all have impressive barrel rates this year against righties, while I’m certainly getting to JJ Wetherholt and Ivan Herrera in stacks, too. I can’t imagine St. Louis will attract much ownership here, but I love it.
I like Drohan, but the Reds have so much power that I’ll be hedging that exposure with plenty of Cincinnati stacks. Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, Spencer Steer, Eugenio Suarez, and Noelvi Marte all have elite barrel rates on the year against LHP. The 5-man stack builds itself. I don’t mind Matt McLain, either.
The Dodgers have enjoyed their time in Sacramento thus far, and tonight they’ll face JT Ginn, a man who continues to struggle handling lefties. He’s improved in terms of yielding power (.126 ISO), but he’s only striking them out 17.9% of the time with an 11.9% walk rate. There’s just a lot of left-handed danger for him to navigate here, so I’m back in on the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Tommy Edman, and Dalton Rushing. Ginn’s numbers are much better across the board vs. RHBs, but the righties are good enough to be playable in stacks.
Andrew Abbott is just a total zero against righties, so Milwaukee’s William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn, Gary Sanchez, Blake Perkins, and Cooper Pratt are in good spots.
Want more advice? Check out our guide to MLB DFS to learn the ropes.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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