Hello! Tuesday, it is. Lots of MLB games on the schedule for tonight. Fortunately, it doesn’t look like we’ll have much weather to worry about. The Royals-White Sox game may be in some peril, but we’ll see.
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Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (5/12)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,500, vs. SF)
- Shane McClanahan ($9,000, at TOR)
- Freddy Peralta ($8,800, vs. DET)
- Bryan Woo ($8,700, at HOU)
- MacKenzie Gore ($8,500, vs. AZ)
- Jeffrey Springs ($8,300, vs. STL)
- Eury Perez ($8,100, at MIN)
- Zac Gallen ($7,800, at TEX)
- Jack Flaherty ($7,300, at NYM)
This pitching slate is better than last night’s, which is arguably a compliment. I guess Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the headliner at $9,500 at home vs. San Francisco. Yama’s strikeout rate (23.5%) is about 6% lower than it was last year. His barrel rate is weirdly up over 10%, while the groundballs (41.9%) have also really tailed off. I don’t see anything that alarming under the hood. The Giants have a couple of pesky, high-contact hitters atop the lineup, but there are plenty of strikeouts available as you move down the order. This team has also hit for no power against righties (.124 ISO), but I expect them to improve.
Yamamoto is the SP1 on this slate kinda by default, but I don’t view him as an absolute must-play.
Shane McClanahan was one of the best pitchers in baseball before missing a couple of years with injuries. He’s been a mixed bag this season. The Ks (24.1%) are rising, and he’s kept the ball on the ground (46.7%). The walks (9.9%) are up, and Toronto is one of the lower-strikeout offenses in the league vs. LHP (18.4%) with plenty of patience. I don’t really think this is the spot to be hunting for ceiling with McClanahan, especially at $9,000. Playable, just not a priority.
Both pitchers in DET-NYM are interesting. Freddy Peralta (23.2%) is another pitcher whose strikeout rate has declined this season, while his old control troubles (9.7% walks) have popped back up. Citi Field is a great pitcher’s park, while the Tigers are a pretty neutral matchup. I don’t have much conviction here.
The Builder was all over Jack Flaherty ($7,300) ahead of his last start, and he responded with 10 Ks in a GPP-winning effort against Boston. Flaherty has always been an excellent source of strikeouts, but he’s been done in this season by some sketchy control (16% walks). Flaherty’s K-rate is pushing 30% vs. RHBs, but the Mets only have 4 right-handed bats in the projected order. While it’s not a perfect spot, I still think he’s too cheap for the upside at this salary. He’ll be much more popular than he was in his last start, but I’m fine with it.
Bryan Woo has underwhelmed for much of the season, but then he went out and struck out 9 Braves in his last outing. Woo’s strikeout numbers have always been far better against righties, so it’s a good spot for him against this righty-heavy Astros lineup. Offense has not been the issue for Houston this season (.205 ISO, 20.9% Ks vs. RHP), but I like Woo’s $8,700 price point. No pitcher on this slate is really in an ideal matchup, so Woo makes the cut.
MacKenzie Gore is quite similar. Good strikeout rate (27.3%), but the walks (11.9%) and barrels (11.3%) are scary. The DBax also just do not strike out (16.9%) against southpaws. Gore will hold the platoon advantage against most of Arizona’s most threatening hitters, and $8,500 is a reasonable price point. I’m in on him despite the suboptimal matchup.
Jeffrey Springs is another guy who was solid before injuries derailed him a bit. His numbers so far this season don’t jump off the page (21.5% Ks, 9.4% barrels), but St. Louis hasn’t hit for much power vs. left-handed pitching (.127 ISO). The ballpark is hitter-friendly, and Springs doesn’t have a particularly long leash, but I think it’s a solid spot for run prevention. Springs is one of my favorite lower-owned SP2 plays.
Yet another high-strikeout/high-walk pitcher is Eury Perez, who’ll toe the rubber in Minneapolis. The Twins are one of the most patient lineups in baseball (10.1% walks vs. RHP), so I’m not super interested. There is upside if he can find the zone; I just can’t trust him to do that.
Zac Gallen started to decline last year, and the Ks are all the way down to 14.8% early this season, including just 10.5% to lefties. The Rangers have been horrific offensively – particularly at home – but it’s not a great matchup against a team with 5 LHBs in the projected order. I don’t have much interest.
SP Rankings
- Yamamoto
- Flaherty
- Gore
- Springs
- Woo
- Peralta
- McClanahan
- Perez
- Gallen
Top MLB DFS Stacks (5/12)
- Braves (vs. Colin Rea)
- Marlins (at Bailey Ober)
- Twins (vs. Eury Perez)
- Cardinals (at Jeffrey Springs)
- Mariners (at Tatsuya Imai)
- The Gutless Dodgers (vs. Adrian Houser)
- A’s (vs. Andre Pallante)
I’m gonna start with the Mariners, even though I didn’t list them first. They’re in Houston to face Tatsuya Imai, who might just be the most calamitous pitcher in baseball. He just missed a few weeks with “arm fatigue,” and things went horribly for him in a minor-league tuneup start. Things were also going horribly before the injury. Imai has shown some strikeout ability (29.5%), but his 25% walk rate is utterly ghastly. I suppose one good thing is he has yet to allow a barreled baseball through a few starts, while he’s also kept the ball on the ground nearly 58% of the time.
Until he shows he’s figured out the control, I’m going to attack him. Putting ducks on the pond is a recipe for disaster, and even the Mariners will cash in eventually if given enough chances. Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley, and Dom Canzone all have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP, but I’m not too concerned about handedness. Julio Rodriguez, Brendan Donovan, Randy Arozarena…I like it all.
Colin Rea has done a decent job of limiting power this season, but last year, lefties barreled him up over 12% of the time with a sub-20% K-rate. Atlanta’s lefties are good – Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, Dom Smith, and Mike Yastrzemski will all have the platoon edge. Rea is hardly overpowering against RHBs, so you can include Austin Riley.
Both sides of the MIA/MIN game feature volatile pitchers. Bailey Ober has struck out just 14% of lefties with ugly power numbers allowed. It’s the Marlins, but they do have some capable lefty sticks – Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards, Liam Hicks, Jakob Marsee, Joe Mack, and Owen Caissie. Otto Lopez is passable from the right side.
Perez (13.3%) has one of the slate’s highest barrel rates allowed. Byron Buxton, Josh Bell, Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis, and Ryan Jeffers are sporting double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP on the year.
I like Springs, but I’ll be hedging my Springs exposure with some Cardinals stacks. Right-handed power is preferred. The Cardinals just don’t have much of that, but I like Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera individually. Masyn Winn/JJ Wetherholt would round it out.
You can also play the A’s side of this one. Andre Pallante generates enough groundballs to limit damage, but he won’t be missing bats. Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, and Nick Kurtz all hit the ball in the air enough to offset Pallante’s groundball lean.
The Dodgers will face a pitcher with an 11.4% strikeout rate this year. Adrian Houser can keep it on the ground (49.6%), but mostly against righties. LA is yet another left-handed power stack that looks pretty good – Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Dalton Rushing, Kyle Tucker.
Mini Stacks/One-Offs
- White Sox vs. Kolek – Murakami, Montgomery, Vargas, Antonacci
- Blue Jays RHBs vs. McClanahan – Springer, Guerrero Jr., Okamoto
- Rangers LHBs vs. Gallen – Seager, Nimmo, Carter, Joc
- Corbin Carroll at Gore
- Yordan Alvarez vs. Woo
- Seiya Suzuki vs. Holmes
- Bobby Witt Jr. at Fedde
- Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero at Patrick Corbin
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Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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