Howdy! It’s Monday, which means we’ve got a weird baseball schedule. Just 5 games on the board for tonight, and the first and last games start 4 hours apart. Fun! Things get going bright and early at 6:10 PM ET, so don’t forget that. If you are going to forget that, at least set a palatable dummy lineup. Nothing more embarrassing than forgetting when lock is and seeing your lineup with 6 guys on the IL out there for the rest of the world to see.
Anyway, things look pretty gross tonight. There are still some decent pitchers, and the chalk will probably be fairly concentrated as a result. I will also recommend you get yourself a 7-day free trial to try out our new DFS optimizer/simulator, which lets you build up to 1,000 +EV lineups per run. I’ve been using it with plenty of success over the past few weeks, as have several members in our lil Discord community. Check it out.
Off we go.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (May 11)
- Kevin Gausman ($9,000, vs. TB)
- George Kirby ($8,700, at HOU)
- Nathan Eovaldi ($8,500, vs. AZ)
- Ryan Weathers ($8,300, at BAL)
- Peter Lambert ($7,800, vs. SEA)
- Drew Rasmussen ($7,700, at TOR)
- Joey Cantillo ($7,500, vs. LAA)
- Michael Soroka ($7,300 at TEX)
The most expensive pitcher on the slate is Kevin Gausman, who will welcome the Mighty Tampa Bay Rays to Toronto. Gausman spiked a few big-strikeout games early in the season, but he hasn’t topped 4 Ks in any of his last 4 starts. Not great! His strikeout rate for the year is down to 23.2%, which is about in line with last year’s 24.4% mark. The Rays are not striking out much (19.8%) against right-handed pitching, but it’s also not an imposing group overall (.162 ISO, 8% barrels vs. RHP).
I think Gausman is still on the good side of average, but he’s probably going to attract a ton of ownership thanks to the limited options on the slate. Our hands are kinda tied. He’s a fine play, but he’d probably be on the fringes of my player pool on another slate. This will also be Gausman’s second straight start against the Rays, which is a quirk that typically favors the hitters.
I think the chalkiest pitcher on the board will be Nathan Eovaldi at home against the DBax. This is a rematch of the 2023 World Series, which absolutely nobody remembers. Eovaldi has been extremely dominant against right-handed hitters, though LHBs (.221 ISO, 11.5% barrels, .346 wOBA) have given him some headaches. Arizona is one of the lowest-K lineups in the league (18.3% vs. RHP), and they’ll likely start the game with 5 straight left-handed bats atop the order. Eovaldi also snapped out of an early-season funk with a couple of excellent starts in a row coming into this one, both against the fantastic Yankees offense. I will be playing some Eovaldi because he has the highest ceiling on the slate. I will also be taking advantage of the very obvious leverage opportunity that is playing the Diamondbacks against him.
George Kirby? He relies on elite control and groundballs more than he does strikeouts, though I do still think his current 19.1% K-rate is due to rise. The Houston lineup is a blend of high-K and high-contact hitters, though Kirby will have the platoon advantage against most of them. I have less interest in Kirby than I do in Gausman or Eovaldi, mainly because he’s the least likely of the three to put up a score you can’t win without.
Ryan Weathers has been quietly excellent since donning the pinstripes, with a stellar 28.5% K-rate, including a ridiculous 46.9% mark against his fellow lefties. Right-handed hitters have slapped him around (13.8% barrels), so a matchup against an Orioles team likely to jam 8 RHBs isn’t ideal. The good part is that this team is also one of the highest-strikeout lots in the league (25.9%) against southpaws. I think Weathers is a decent play, but I will also be making a priority of the Orioles’ power righties on this slate.
Joey Cantillo projects decently around the industry for a home matchup against the Angels. A 22.4% strikeout rate is still not great, nor is an 11.5% walk rate. He’s been wild and power-prone against righties, and the Angels are essentially nothing but patient, slugging righties. When they’re not walking or hittin’ dongs, though, they are striking out (26% vs. LHP). It’s a boom/bust spot, and yet another matchup of which I’ll be on both sides.
All things considered, I think my favorite pitching option on the entire slate is Michael Soroka against the Rangers in Arlington. This guy was a good prospect for the Braves before injuries ruined his life, and he’s bounced back impressively over the past couple of seasons at a few different stops. This year, the strikeouts are solid (25.6%) along with good control. The groundball stuff he had earlier in his career seems to have vanished, and he will yield some hard hits (12.1% barrels). Texas just hasn’t been a potent offensive team, particularly in their pitcher-friendly home barn. I think they’re better than they’ve shown, but Soroka is also blatantly underpriced at $7,300 on a bad pitching slate. I doubt he’ll be contrarian at all, but he might be the pitcher to whom I have the most exposure on this slate.
Peter Lambert will face the Mariners at home. I don’t really know what to make of him. He sucked earlier in his career in Colorado, but most pitchers who pitch in Colorado tend to suck. His 24.7% K-rate this season puts him among the leaders on this slate, but the walks (11.8%) are problematic. Lambert’s 2.42 ERA is almost certainly a mirage, as his 4.13 SIERA is quite a bit more pedestrian. Seattle – like Texas – should be a good offense, but they really haven’t been. There’s still a lot of power here (.181 ISO, 10.4% barrels), and they’re too talented to underwhelm forever. You can make a case for the $7,800 Lambert because of the lack of great alternatives, but I don’t plan to get here much.
Drew Rasmussen is good. He might even be the best pitcher on this godforsaken slate. The Rays are also giving him a little more leash these days, as he got up to 98 pitches a few starts ago. The downside is that this Toronto offense is extremely low on strikeouts (17.4% vs. RHP), and Rasmussen made his last start against them last week. The Jays are also getting healthier. Rasmussen is certainly playable at $7,800, but I think Cantillo, Weathers, and Soroka have slightly higher ceilings thanks to their respective matchups.
SP Rankings
- Soroka
- Gausman
- Eovaldi
- Weathers
- Cantillo
- Rasmussen
- Kirby
- Lambert
Top MLB DFS Stacks (5/11)
- Yankees (at Brandon Young)
- Dodgers (vs. Trevor McDonald)
- Orioles (vs. Ryan Weathers)
- Mariners (at Peter Lambert)
- DBax (at Nathan Eovaldi)
- Angels (at Joey Cantillo)
- Guardians (vs. Alek Manoah!)
- Giants (at Roki Sasaki)
Lots of shitty pitching means lots of offenses stand out. The clear headliner is the Yankees. This is the best offense in baseball, and they’re facing arguably the worst pitcher on the slate, Brandon Young. They’ll probably be Heavy Chalk, but it’s probably justified. He’s been quite a bit worse against left-handed hitters this season, but last year’s numbers indicate he’s not any better against righties. I suppose young pitchers tend to improve, but I’m not going to really care about handedness when it comes to stacking Yanks against him.
Sure, you can start with the LHBs. Jazz Chisholm, Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Ryan McMahon, and Cody Bellinger all have long track records of success vs. right-handed pitching. I’m not sure where the Yankees find all of these Jumbo Outfielders, but top prospect Spencer Jones is arguably the best power-hitting prospect in the league, and he’s also left-handed. All the cheap pitching makes it easy to afford Aaron Judge.
The Dodgers routinely underwhelm, but I’ll go back to them here against Trevor McDonald. The right-hander projects for an extremely wide platoon split from the right side, so we can expect left-handed bats to find some success – Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, Max Muncy, and Alex Freeland will swing it from the left side against him. Ditto for Dalton Rushing if he cracks the 9. Mookie Betts is also back tonight, which just makes this lineup deeper and more potent.
Alek Manoah is back in our lives, this time with the Angels, because of course, he’s with the Angels. He’s not dead, even though that makes it sound like he’s dead. This guy was an All-Star a few years ago before he devolved into a punching bag, and I assume he’s still a punching bag. If there’s a worse pitcher on the slate than Brandon Young, I suppose it’s Manoah. LHBs have a career .329 wOBA against him, while he’s generated more Ks and groundballs from righties. The Guardians are No Fun, but they do have a few capable LHBs – Kyle Manzardo, Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Travis Bazzana, Steven Kwan, and Daniel “Snowman” Schneemann will hit from the left side here.
The Giants get a huge park upgrade going into LA where they’ll face the erratic Roki Sasaki. Sasaki has never figured it out as a starter. There’s a chance Sasaki goes out there and walks 4 guys in the first innings and hands it over to the Dodgers’ bullpen – which wouldn’t be a great sign for your Giants stacks – but if they jump out to an early lead, perhaps they can dodge some of the Dodgers’ better leverage arms.
The Giants are yet another lineup with a bunch of good hitters that simply hasn’t performed up to standards. Sasaki is struggling against everyone, though he projects for a reverse right-handed split. I like that for Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, and Willy Adames, while Rafael Devers and Bryce Eldridge are the big power-hitting lefties. Both are dumbly 1B-only, so I’ll side with Devers in most lineups. Jung Hoo Lee and Luis Arraez are playable slap hitters atop the order if you’re into that.
I don’t know what to make of the Mariners, much like I don’t know what to make of The Suddenly Legendary Peter Lambert. I do know the Astros have a godawful bullpen behind their starter, so that’s helpful to the Seattle cause. Cal Raleigh is having a miserable season, but he’s still barreling up righties with aplomb (14.7%). Ditto for Luke Raley (23.2%) and Dom Canzone (15.8%). Pretty good lefty mini-stack there, though I don’t mind RHBs against Lambert, either. Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena make the pool.
Beyond those teams, we’re looking at appealing leverage opportunities:
- DBax LHBs – Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Adrian Del Castillo, Ildemaro Vargas
- O’s RHBs – Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Coby Mayo, Tyler O’Neill, Jeremiah Jackson, Adley Rutschman
- Angels RHBs – Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Jorge Soler, Zach Neto, Oswald Peraza
- Yordan Alvarez vs. Kirby
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Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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