Happy Wednesday. It is May 13th, and unless this is your birthday, you probably don’t remember anything significant ever happening on May 13th.
Well, you’re wrong. On this day in 1612, a sword duel between Miyamoto Musashi and Sasaki Kojiro took place on the shores of Ganryū Island. Spoiler alert: Kojiro died at the end.
May 13th is also the birthday of luminaries like Nico Hoerner, Jabari Smith Jr., Mark Stone, Yaya Toure, Romelu Lukaku, Barry Zito, and Dennis Rodman.
We usually have split slates on Wednesdays, but that’s not really the case today. The vast majority of the games are night games. As an avowed hater of afternoon slates, I love to see it.
We’ve had some Crap pitching slates over the past few days, but tonight’s looks decent.
If you haven’t already, I recommend taking a gander at our new MLB DFS optimizer. You can grab a 7-day free trial, and after that, it’s a wee $29.99/month. I will keep saying it’s the best value you’ll find anywhere in the industry because it’s true.
Anyway, on to the base ball.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (5/13)
- Shohei Ohtani ($10,700, vs. SF)
- Jacob Misiorowski ($10,500, vs. SD)
- Dylan Cease ($10,000, vs. TB)
- Shota Imanaga ($9,000, at ATL)
- Michael King ($8,800, at MIL)
- Framber Valdez ($7,200, at NYM)
- Christian Scott ($7,000, vs. DET)
- Griffin Jax ($5,500, at TOR)
3 aces at the top, and plenty of strikeouts for all 3. Shohei Ohtani has upped his K-rate to 29%, so he’s inching closer to the 33% rate he posted last year. The control is still excellent, and his 2.95 SIERA is among the best in baseball. Not quite as eye-popping as his 0.97 ERA, but he’s keeping the ball on the ground (52.2%) and just not allowing much of anything.
The Giants have done damage against the Dodgers’ previous 2 starters in this series. While I don’t think it’s a terrible offense, I do think Ohtani is simply a better pitcher than Roki Sasaki or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. We’re paying a premium here at $10,700, but I’m happy to do it.
Jacob Misiorowski just keeps piling up the Ks (39.5%!). He’s also just not allowing much in terms of batted balls. It always comes down to the walks (9.6%). Fortunately for him, the Padres have been among the least-patient offenses in baseball vs. right-handed pitching (8.1%). It’s not a great strikeout matchup, but Miz just has so much ability to miss bats that I don’t care too much. As of now, he’s just a higher-upside version of guys like Dylan Cease and Blake Snell. There is risk at $10,500 and into what should be significant ownership, but you can argue he’s just as worthy of the ownership as Ohtani.
Cease’s numbers (34.6% Ks, 9.4% walks) are similar to Misiorowski’s, and he’ll face what is generally a punchless Tampa Bay offense. There are some strikeouts available toward the bottom of the Rays’ order, but they’ve also got more high-walk bats than the Padres do. We’re only getting a slight discount with Cease compared to Ohtani or Misiorowski, and I don’t think that discount is enough to vault him above 3rd overall in terms of priority.
That said, I’m not really dying to play anyone who isn’t Ohtani, Miz, or Cease.
The strikeouts have surged to 28.3% for Shota Imanaga, including a phenomenal 37% against his fellow lefties. This guy posted a 20.8% K-rate last year, but his swinging strike rate is closer to where it was during his rookie year, when he finished with a 25.1% strikeout rate. Imanaga is a flyball pitcher who will allow some home runs, but the Braves just don’t profile too well against lefties without Ronald Acuna Jr. Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies have hit for power against lefties this season, but they’re the only ones who have, and Imanaga will still have the platoon advantage against Baldwin and Olson. I still respect Atlanta more than the Giants, Padres, or Rays, which moves Imanaga down to 4th on the list, but I don’t hate firing some darts here given the strikeouts he’s flashed.
Michael King ($8,800) will toe the rubber in Milwaukee opposite Misiorowski. The strikeouts (24.9%) have started to trend back in the right direction, and I don’t expect his walk issues (11%) to continue. The Brewers aren’t hitting for much power (.144 ISO vs. RHP), so I’m good with King if you need some savings from the top tier.
I’m not sure what to make of Framber Valdez. He has a long track record of being awesome, but that awesomeness has always been more tied to his heavy groundball rate than his amazing strikeout ability. He’s only managed to K 15% of RHBs so far with Detroit, while the groundballs (53.2%) are down from the 60% rates he consistently posted in Houston. The Mets aren’t very good these days, but the only high-strikeout hitter in the projected lineup is Austin Slater. I think $7,200 is cheap enough to make Valdez a viable option, but there’s nothing safe about him at the moment.
On the other side of the game we have Christian Scott, who’s made 3 starts for the Mets after starting the year in the minors. Scott’s been a mix of strikeouts (31.3%) and walks (14.6%) in those 3 starts, but he was consistently a 30%-strikeout guy at the lower levels with excellent control. Detroit is yet another low-strikeout lineup with some power potential, but you won’t often find a pitcher with Scott’s pedigree in this price range. He can always walk everyone and be out of the game by the 3rd inning, but I’m fine with absorbing that risk to hunt for strikeouts. I like him quite a bit.
Then we have the $5,500 Griffin Jax, who continues to see his leash extended with each passing start since beginning the year in the bullpen. Jax’s numbers aren’t particularly impressive as a starter, but he is talented, and that salary is wildly cheap. With Jax, you’re hoping he skates through 4-5 innings and gets you 10-14 points while 1-2 of the aces falter. Not exactly the most comfortable path, but he’s playable if you need to find some salary for bats.
SP Rankings
- Ohtani
- Misiorowski
- Cease
- Scott
- Imanaga
- King
- Valdez
- Jax
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Wednesday
- Cardinals (at JT Ginn)
- Royals (at Noah Schultz)
- Marlins (at Simeon Woods Richardson)
- Mariners (at Lance McCullers Jr.)
- Rangers (vs. Ryne Nelson)
- White Sox (vs. Seth Lugo)
- A’s (vs. Matthew Liberatore)
The Cardinals are still in Sacramento in the launching pad, where they’ll face right-hander JT Ginn. Ginn was very splitsy last season, with legitimately good numbers vs. RHBs and terrible ones against left-handed hitters. The Cardinals can get pretty left-handed on him with JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, Nathan Church, and Victor Scott, while Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera have enough power to make the cut in any matchup. We could see more ownership here than we did last night, but I’m fine with it.
The A’s will swing it against lefty Matthew Liberatore on the other side of the game. Liberatore has been vastly better against righties than lefties, but I think that’s small-sample noise. I suppose that’ll put Nick Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom in play at very low ownership, but the headliners are Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, and Colby Thomas from the right side.
The Royals get rookie Noah Schultz, who profiles significantly worse against left-handed hitters in the long run. Vinnie Pasquantino is sadly the only KC left-handed hitter of note, so we’re rolling with the good righties, for the most part, in stacks – Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez, Lane Thomas.
I suppose Seth Lugo is a decent pitcher, but he’s also a low-strikeout guy who allowed a ton of power to lefties last season – great news for Sam Antonacci, Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, and Andrew Benintendi from the left side.
The Mariners teed off against the shitty Tatsuya Imai last night, and tonight they’ll face another wild one in Lance McCullers Jr. He’s got some strikeout stuff, but his walk rate is also cartoonishly high (13.4%). Brendan Donovan, Randy Arozarena, and JP Crawford are solid value plays, while you’re not exactly paying top dollar for Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, or Josh Naylor these days, either.
Texas? I guess? Ryne Nelson has a barrel rate of over 13% against hitters from both sides, with fewer strikeouts against lefties. The Rangers lost Brandon Nimmo to an injury yesterday, but I’m in on Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Ezequiel Duran, Joc Pederson, and Evan Carter.
The Marlins got embarrassed by Bailey Ober last night. At least Ober used to be a good pitcher, which we can’t really say of Simeon Woods Richardson. SWR has inexplicably struck out just 5.7% of right-handed hitters, which doesn’t seem possible. Kyle Stowers is still the top overall bat here from the left side along with Liam Hicks and Xavier Edwards, while Otto Lopez and Connor Norby have good numbers vs. same-handed pitching this season.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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