Howdy! It is, inexplicably, already the final day of June. How time flies. Last night’s slate was a weird one, and we’ve got a similar docket on tap for tonight. There’s some pretty good hitting weather all around the US, including more hitter-friendly winds at Wrigley and warm temps in both Denver and Sacramento. Two of those spots came through last night, and one of them…did not.
On to the stuff!
MLB DFS Pitchers for Tuesday
- Bryan Woo ($9,000, vs. LAA)
- Joe Ryan ($9,700, at HOU)
- Kevin Gausman ($8,700, vs. NYM)
- Matthew Liberatore ($5,500, at ATL)
- Eury Perez ($7,000, at COL)
- Matthew Boyd ($7,700, vs. SD)
- Cam Schlittler ($10,500, vs. DET)
- Brandon Sproat ($6,500, vs. CIN)
- Tarik Skubal ($10,000, at NYY)
Another pretty good pitching slate here with options in every price tier. We’ve got a couple of pitchers north of $10,000, and they happen to be squaring off against one another in the Bronx. Tarik Skubal still has good numbers (28.1% Ks, 3.4% walks, 2.84 SIERA), though he hasn’t been as consistently great as he was a season ago. He’s also had an injury to deal with, and he’s still working his way back from that. While the Yankees (without Judge) are generally a less imposing lineup against left-handers, the actual numbers don’t really bear that out (.216 ISO, .352 wOBA).
Skubal’s underlying numbers suggest he’s been unlucky, if anything, but I’m still not geeked to be paying 5 figures for him in this spot. You can, and I won’t be fully fading him, but he’s not going to be a core part of my night.
The same is likely true of his mound opponent, Cam Schlittler, the most expensive option on the board at $10,500. Schlitty’s 2.90 SIERA is outstanding, but he’s also likely to see that 1.62 ERA regress. There’s nothing to complain about in the numbers (29.9% Ks, 5.1% walks), and the Tigers are quite a high-strikeout lot against RHP (23.4%). I would rather play Schlittler than Skubal, but there’s a decent chance I’ll come in a bit under his 25%ish projected ownership.
I prefer the next tier below them – Bryan Woo and Joe Ryan. The Angels scored a couple of runs off of George Kirby last night, but he still put together a terrific outing in a stellar matchup. Woo gets the same draw tonight. He’s been more good than great (24.6% Ks, 4.5% walks, 3.56 SIERA), but I just want to pick on the Angels (25.4% Ks) in a pitcher-friendly park. The discount to Woo from the top 3 is also meaningful. $9,000 is a clear underpay, so I’m playing Woo and do not care one iota (not even one!) about ownership.
Ryan’s matchup on the road in Houston is tougher on paper (21.7% Ks, .204 ISO vs. RHP), but Ryan (28.5% Ks, 5% walks, 3.13 SIERA) has been every bit as good as Schlittler, just with less fanfare because he plays for the Twins and not the Yankees. Ryan still allows plenty of barrels (10.5%), especially to lefties (11.7%), but that’s really the only weakness in his game. His overall numbers vs. LHBs are far better this season than ever before, so I’m certainly not concerned, especially in a matchup against a righty-heavy Astros offense. I’ll have more Woo than Ryan, but I’ll have more Ryan than Schlittler or Skubal.
Next we can drop all the way down to Matthew Liberatore at just $5,500 for a road matchup in Atlanta. This is a price play more than anything else. A $5,500 pitcher comes in handy on this slate. Liberatore is hardly great (20.1% Ks, 8.3% walks, but his 4.40 SIERA is much better than his bloated 5.56 ERA. He’ll have the platoon edge against the Braves’ best hitters – Harris, Olson, and Baldwin – and none of the righties in this lineup are all that imposing with Ronald Acuna Jr. on the shelf. There’s obviously a very low floor with Liberatore, but I’ll likely be heavily over the field at this price point, and I’d be thrilled with 10-13 fantasy points here.
As of this writing, Kevin Gausman ($8,700) is projected for pretty low ownership despite a good spot against the Mets. New York is a bit better now with Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto back healthy, while Gausman (23.5% Ks, 3.69 SIERA) is probably only a tier or two higher than average at this stage of his career. Gausman has both a high ceiling and a non-existent floor, and it’s tough to tell when the ceiling games will show up. He’s reasonably priced enough to make the pool.
Eury Perez gets a huge park downgrade going into Coors, but at least he’ll get to pitch to the Rockies. He has a 26.1% K-rate with a 10% walk rate on the year, and I think there are more Ks available. He’s also allowing far too many barrels (14.9%), but I’m a big believer in his talent, and he’s only $7,000. The numbers say the Rockies haven’t been a total punching bag (.159 ISO, .314 wOBA, 21.2% Ks) vs. RHP, but those are hardly imposing numbers, either. Did I mention that Perez is just $7,000? I love this, even in this ballpark, especially at what should be microscopic ownership.
Matthew Boyd won’t have the wind at his back tonight, but at least he gets to face the gutless Padres. 85-90 pitches seems like a reasonable expectation in Boyd’s second start off the IL. We’re still dealing with a tiny sample of work for Boyd this season due to injury, so I’m reluctant to buy into the 14.4% swinging strikes or 28.9% K-rate. One thing I do buy into is the Padres’ suckage. It’s not a high-K lineup (19.9%) against LHP, but San Diego just doesn’t have much power these days. Boyd is only $7,700, which is useful enough. I do prefer the savings with Perez, but Boyd is viable.
Prospect Brandon Sproat has been quite up and down this season for the Brewers, but he did turn in an impressive 10-K outing just last week against these very same Cincinnati Reds. Sproat’s strikeout rate for the season (24.7%) is respectable, but he’s had issues with walks (10.8%), especially against LHBs (13.9%). The Reds only have 4 lefties in the projected order, and they’re among the highest-strikeout lineups in baseball against RHP (25.4%). Sproat is quite boom/bust, and I don’t love that this is his second straight game against the Reds, but there’s obvious ceiling here at just $6,500.
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Tuesday
- Padres (at Matt Boyd)
- Cubs (vs. JP Sears)
- Marlins (at Tanner Gordon)
- Twins (at Mike Burrows)
- Rays (at Noah Cameron)
- Giants (at Brandon Pfaadt)
- Nationals (at Connelly Early)
- Cardinals (at Martin Perez)
- Dodgers (at Jeffrey Springs)
It’s a huge slate, so ownership should be somewhat spread out, but we should still have a few chalkier spots. I’d expect folks to go right back to Wrigley with the wind blowing out and a couple of veteran, flyball lefties on the mound.
The Cubs will presumably be the chalkier of the two against JP Sears, who has a long track record as a flyballer who’s had some home-run issues in the past. Most of Sears’ issues predictably come against RHBs, which puts Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, and Carson Kelly near the top of the wish list. I’d still play Pete Crow-Armstrong against a lefty, while Dansby Swanson (.214 ISO) has hit for some power this year.
I’m interested in Boyd, but I’ll be hedging with some Padres stacks despite this team being consistently terrible. RHBs have a 10.3% barrel rate against the left-hander this season. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Ty France have decent numbers against lefties, while Samad Taylor is still cheap and hitting in a favorable spot in the order. For the record, I much prefer the Padres as a mini-stack than full stack.
Brandon Pfaadt has always had trouble keeping the baseball in the baseball park, especially against lefties. We’ve seen more of the same this season (.266 ISO, .403 wOBA, 13.6% barrels vs. LHB). We’re running into the usual issue with Bryce Eldridge and Rafael Devers both being 1B-only, but they’re also the two best options here against a righty. Luis Arraez and Jung Hoo Lee would be next, followed by the big RHBs, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Casey Schmitt. I prefer Devers to Eldridge if choosing one, but both are excellent hitters.
The Dodgers did a number on Gage Jump and friends yesterday, and tonight they’ll face a worse lefty in Jeffrey Springs. Springs has allowed a .253 ISO overall, and he’s been just as power-prone to lefties as righties. Not great, Bob! Right back to the well here with the best offense in baseball – Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Andy Pages, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker. Stacking the Dodgers is where cheapies like Sproat, Perez, and Liberatore come in.
The Marlins put 10 runs on the board at Coors last night, and tonight they’ll take on the middling Tanner Gordon. An overall 13.2% barrel rate simply won’t do, while he’s beem mashed (.362 ISO, .474 wOBA, 16.3% barrels) by left-handed bats. Jakob Marsee, Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie, Griffin Conine, Joe Mack, and Graham Pauley will all swing it from the preferred side here. Still always happy to get to Otto Lopez in stacks, as he’s the Marlins’ best overall hitter.
Mike Burrows is supposed to be good, but he’s pitched quite poorly all season, especially against LHBs (.266 ISO, .416 wOBA, 10.9% barrels). I’m never all that confident in Minnesota, but Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Brooks Lee, Victor Caratini, and Tristan Gray are all left-handed hitters in this matchup. I’m still prioritizing Byron Buxton in stacks if he returns to the lineup, even with Burrows’ better numbers vs. RHBs.
Martin Perez has given the Braves some good innings this season, but he’s also benefited from a wildly low BABIP. You can build a sexy mini-stack with Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker, and Nelson Velazquez from the St. Louis side of things.
The Nationals typically aren’t as fun against lefties, but they’ll also be very low-owned in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Connelly Early has had more trouble against righties – good for Andres Chaparro, Curtis Mead, and Dylan Crews – but James Wood and CJ Abrams have both shown plus power vs. same-handed pitching.
The Rays are another mini on my radar against Noah Cameron. Cameron’s numbers are worse against LHBs, but I’d still prioritize getting to Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Ryan Vilade, and Jonny DeLuca from the right side.
Other Stuff!
- Henry Bolte, Shea Langeliers, Colby Thomas vs. Justin Wrobleski
- Elly De La Cruz and JJ Bleday at Brandon Sproat
- Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, and Jakob Bauers vs. Rhett Lowder
- Zach Neto at Bryan Woo
- Wilyer Abreu, Caleb Durbin, and Jarren Duran vs. Cade Cavalli
- Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, and Ketel Marte vs. Landen Roupp
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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