Howdy, folks. Last night’s slate was Bunghole, so maybe tonight’s won’t be. I mentioned in yesterday’s blog that the quality of the pitching meant tonight’s slate would likely have shitty options, and, whaddya know, it’s true.
You’re probably not gonna have confidence in the lineups you put out there tonight, but at least you won’t be alone. This one looks terrible, but someone’s gotta win money on it, so it might as well be you. Or me. Or both of us. Let’s eat, drink, and be merry.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Wednesday
- Sean Burke ($9,000, vs. Rangers)
- Peter Lambert ($8,700, at Yankees)
- MacKenzie Gore ($8,300, at White Sox)
- Kyle Bradish ($8,000, at Cardinals)
- Roki Sasaki ($7,700, at Braves)
- Dustin May ($7,300, at Mets)
- Connor Prielipp ($6,200, at A’s)
Yeah man, things are Downright Dreary here. Sean Burke is the headliner at $9,000 for a home matchup with the Rangers. He’s having a breakout season (26.5% Ks, 3.50 SIERA), but he’s also had some power issues (.189 ISO) over the last month. Texas is a pretty neutral offense in most regards (.177 ISO, .317 wOBA), though there are some strikeouts available here (23.1%).
I don’t think Burke is amazing, but for this slate, he might as well be. He’s fine. I don’t think he’s a must-play by any means, and I think his ownership is likely to be inflated on a slate like this given the lack of quality alternatives.
Peter Lambert has given the Astros some good innings, but this guy really doesn’t have any business being $8,700, especially for a road matchup against the Yankees. A 4.19 SIERA lurks beneath his shinier 3.68 ERA. I suppose his 23.3% strikeout rate is respectable, but his walk rate (9.3%) is problematic. Lambert has enjoyed more success against lefties – a useful skill in ths particular matchup – I just don’t see a huge need to overpay for him. I won’t be completely fading him in multi-entry, though, mainly because he’ll be contrarian.
I never have much confidence in MacKenzie Gore despite his solid 26% strikeout rate. His reverse left-handed split is pretty pronounced, and the projected Chicago lineup he’ll face here only has 2 lefties in it. That’s favorable for Gore. Also favorable is that they’ll strike out a lot (24.5%), albeit with a ton of power (.215 ISO, .345 wOBA). Boom/bust pitcher in a boom/bust matchup. I think I’ll have more Gore than Burke, and I’ll definitely have more Gore than Lambert, but it’s not like I’m thrilled about that. Strikeouts are king, and it’s easy to see a path to strikeouts here. And that’s the end of that chapter.
The Orangebirds and Redbirds will square off again in St. Louis. Kyle Bradish has spiked the occasional big-strikeout effort, but overall, he’s been average across the board (4.32 SIERA, 22% Ks, 10.2% walks). He’s been in atrocious form of late, but he’s also regularly topping 90 pitches. While the Cardinals aren’t a great matchup for piling up Ks (21.5%), they are decent for run prevention (.159 ISO, .325 wOBA vs. RHP). It’s really just Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, and a buncha nonsense.
Bradish is $8,000 and I’m okay with the matchup, so I’m okay with him.
We never know what we’re getting from Roki Sasaki. His 23% K-rate and 9.3% walk rate is a Perfectly Lambertian combo, albeit with more power issues and less consistency. Righties have really given him trouble, while he’s enjoyed better success against lefties, which is also Perfectly Lambertian. I suppose the Braves’ best hitters mostly being lefties is good for Sasaki, but there are also 5 hitters with walk rates north of 9% vs. RHP. Atlanta’s an overrated offense in general, but I’m still not all that interested in rolling the dice here.
Dustin May looks like he’ll be a popular salary-saver at $7,300 for a matchup at Citi Field with the Mets. There’s undeniable talent here, but there’s also undeniable consistency. Absolutely nothing will be denied, we know that for sure. Average numbers across the board (22.6% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, and 4.02 SIERA), but, hey, maybe that’s enough in a matchup against the Juan Soto-free Mets. This team only has a .148 ISO and .311 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching, and the ball-playing yard is pitcher-friendly. New York has a 3.83 total here, so he’s fine. Don’t love that May’ll be quite chalky, though.
Another cheapie likely to get some attention is Connor Prielipp despite a park downgrade going into Sacramento. The rookie left-hander has been inconsistent, but his 24.8% strikeout rate is among the highest on the board. There’s downside with sketchy control (9.3% walks), but his 5.57 ERA is clearly inflated compared to his 3.96 SIERA. Stranding baserunners has been a sore spot for him, but that’s more bad luck than anything skill-based.
The A’s are a high-strikeout lot (24.7%) against lefties, and Prielipp is only $6,200. On this slate, he’s probably my favorite pitcher on the board, but that doesn’t mean I won’t hedge that with some A’s stacks.
MLB DFS Pitcher Rankings
- Prielipp
- Gore
- May
- Bradish
- Burke
- Lambert
- Sasaki
MLB DFS Stack Picks for Wednedsay
- Dodgers (at AJ Smith-Shawver)
- Brewers (at Bobstock)
- Twins (at JT Ginn)
- Yankees (vs. Peter Lambert)
- A’s (vs. Connor Prielipp)
- Royals (at Spencer Miles)
- Rangers (at Sean Burke)
- Astros (at ElmRod)
- Orioles (at Michael McGreevy)
- White Sox (vs. MacKenzie Gore)
The Dodgers farted their way through a mediocre effort last night against Bryce Elder, which is typically how things go when you stack elite offenses against Bryce Elder, for no reason at all. Tonight they’ll face AJ Smith-Shawver, a youth still working his way back from injury. AJ Smith-Shawver is a bit time consuming to type, so I suppose I will childishly resort to an initial-based shorthand the rest of the way.
ASS has a 17.5% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, and 5.23 SIERA across his first 2 outings of the year. He’ll probably get back to being good eventually, but for now, this ASS looks smackable, especially with an offense as capable as that of the Dodgers. LA’s 4.48 total isn’t great, but this offense really isn’t even that expensive anymore outside of Shohei Ohtani. Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Teoscar Hernandez are strong point-per-dollar values with salaries at $4,000 or below, while I prefer Max Muncy to Freddie Freeman if I’m paying up for anyone other than Ohtani.
Bobstock is a geriatric eating innings down the stretch in a lost season for the Mets. He’s a flyballer with a 13.6% walk rate thus far. His 23.5% K-rate is surprisingly high, but I’m not really buying it. He projects for a wide standard split from the right side, which is good for a lefty-heavier Brewers side. Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, and Garrett Mitchell are the standout LHBs, but I’m not buying into Stock 📉 being much more effective against same-handed lumber-swingers. Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz, come on down.
I suppose the Twins will be chalky again in the Sacramento ballpark against JT Ginn. While I think Ginn is a solid pitcher, he also has a very wide right-handed split, so Minnesota’s LHBs are really gonna pop – Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Brooks Lee, and Trevor Larnach are your headliners. I wouldn’t necessarily fade the better righties in full stacks, of course.
Pete Lamb has been solid against lefties, but the Yankees just have enough left-handed power to be stackable on any slate regardless. Trent Grisham, Luis Garcia, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and Jazz Chisholm stand out, as always.
I’m probably more interested in the Astros side against righty Elmer Rodriguez, who’s coming back from the minors to start this one for the pinstripe-donners. ElmRod has walked more guys than he’s struck out at the MLB level, which is not what you want, unless you happen to be the walkees. Lefties look particularly good here – Yordan Alvarez, Daulton Varsho, LaMonte Wade. Rodriguez has shown groundball ability vs. RHBs, so I prefer the Houston righties who tend to hit the ball in the air – Isaac Paredes…and I guess that’s it. I’d still play Jeremy Pena because he’s good, while Jose Altuve tends to thrive when he’s being showered by a sea of boos from a crowd full of New York-dwelling people who look like Turtle from Entourage.
Neither pitcher in the Royals-Blue Jays game is any good, but neither offense is any good, either. I suppose I have more faith in the big KC hitters to get the job done against Spencer Miles – Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino.
I’m playing Gore, but it’s not like I am excited to be doing that, so hedging with some Sox Stax makes sense. Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery lefty-lefty may be pretty sneaky, but both have hit for power against same-handed pitching. Randal Grichuk, Miguel Vargas, and Chase Meidroth are the other headliners vs. LHP.
Michael McGreevy isn’t really a gas can, but his numbers against lefties are rather poor – Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, and Colton Cowser are all capable left-handed bats. I’ll play Pete Alonso with glee against any low-strikeout pitcher like this. With glee!
You can attack Chalky Burke with some Rangers, particularly the lefties – Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and Brandon Nimmo is a nice 3-man.
I may roster more Prielipp than any other pitcher, but the A’s are certainly playable on the other side – Henry Bolte, Jonah Heim, Lawrence Butler, and The Fake Max Muncy have had the most success vs. LHP.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply