Howdy, folks. It’s-a-me, Noah Simpson, back from the dead. FanDuel’s main slate starts early and tacks on an extra 3 games, while DK is rolling with a smaller 7-gamer this evening. I don’t see any weather issues to worry about, so things should be pretty stress-free in the MLB DFS streets tonight.
We also don’t have Coors, but we do have Sacramento. The DK slate is particularly weird because there’s one game at 7:40 PM ET, and then absolutely nothing until the last 6 games all start at 9:38 ET or later. This still looks like a fun one, especially on the pitching side, so let’s dive in.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Monday
- Chase Boo-urns ($11,000, at Giants)
- Zack Wheeler ($10,800, at Mariners)
- Braxton Ashcraft ($10,000, at Padres)
- Logan Gilbert ($9,800, vs. Phillies)
- Parker Messick ($9,500, at Angels)
- Kevin Gausman ($8,500, at DBax)
- Robbie Ray ($8,000, vs. Pirates)
- Zebby ($5,700, at A’s)
- Jose Urquidy ($5,500, vs. Rangers)
- Carson Whisenhunt ($5,000, vs. Reds)
DraftKings must have a policy that Chase Boo-urns must cost $11,000 no matter what. This man is $11,000 every time he pops up on a slate. The last time he wasn’t $11,000 was never. Burns is, admittedly, very good (29% Ks, 8.8% walks, 3.46 SIERA), but he’s not quite consistently elite. The walk rate is a skosh high, and he’s allowed some left-handed power.
The good news for Burns is he gets a massive park upgrade tonight swapping Great American for AT&T Park. He’s also facing the Giants, though the Giants have been a much more potent offense (.182 ISO, .344 wOBA, 19.3% Ks) against right-handed pitching. They’re also now loaded with hitters happy to take walks, which wasn’t the case pre-deadline. I expect Burns to put up a fine score here, I’m just not sure we need to pay $11,000 for that, especially on this slate.
Zack Wheeler is also getting quite the park boost of his own going into Seattle. Wheeler’s numbers for the season are excellent (30.4% Ks, 7% walks, 3.06 SIERA), though he has looked a little rickety over the last month, with quite a few walks and a lot of power allowed to left-handed bats. On the bright side, the Mariners have been rather punchless with the lumber all year (.149 ISO, .320 wOBA, 20% Ks vs. RHP). Seattle is another team with a lot of patient hitters, but I’m also not all that concerned about Wheeler’s recent control problems. Seems like small-sample noise. He’s only $200 cheaper than Burns, but I prefer Wheeler given the matchups.
Braxton Ashcraft (26.4% Ks, 5.5% walks, 3.28 SIERA) has pitched very well all season, especially recently. One issue I see is he hasn’t thrown more than 85 pitches in any of his last 4 starts. That hasn’t stopped him from flashing a ceiling, but most of these other aces have longer leashes on average. There’s also nothing special about Ashcraft’s matchup against the Padres, who have been much more potent offensively since the All-Star break. I like the ballpark and I don’t think he’s a bad play in a vacuum, but we don’t live in vacuums, so I don’t know why this phrase even exists. I guess for explanations like this. You can play him at what should be low ownership, but he won’t be a priority for me.
Logan Gilbert toes the same rubber as Wheeler. He continues to not look quite like the guy we saw last year, even if the numbers are still strong in every way (26.4% Ks, 6.2% walks, 3.46 SIERA). His ballpark suits his flyball style, but the Phillies are a tougher foe than most of the other aces will face (.177 ISO, .334 wOBA, 18.9% Ks). Like Ashcraft, I think Gilbert is fine if you land on him, but I’m not too enthusiastic about it.
For the second straight Parker Messick slate, we’re looking at Parker Messick Chalk Night. His numbers (25.7% Ks, 6.8% walks, 44.5% groundballs, 3.52 SIERA) are similar to those of Ashcraft and Gilbert, but Messick gets to face the Angels. They’re still hitting for power against lefties (.180 ISO), but the strikeouts (26.3%) help to offset the risk. Messick has also been a pro at dodging barrels and limiting power all season. He’s good and the spot is great, so I don’t have any issues eating this chalk, even on a slate with plenty of alternatives.
Kevin Gausman has struggled, and tonight he’ll face the low-strikeout DBax. No thanks.
Robbie Ray has also struggled. A 20.2% K-rate simply won’t do, especially next to an 11.7% walk rate on the season. Ray is still doing an okay job of limiting power – especially to same-handed hitters – and most of the Pirates’ scary bats are left-handed. Overall, this lineup is sporting a 25.9% strikeout rate with a .146 ISO and a .316 wOBA vs. lefties. It’s pretty easy to argue Ray’s matchup is even better than Messick’s. Messick is clearly the better pitcher, but Ray is just $8,000 and in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I’ll be taking an overweight approach here.
There are some viable punts, too. Zebby gets a park downgrade going into Sacramento, but the A’s (.133 ISO, .307 wOBA) are not a scary offense without Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, or Jacob Wilson. Zebby’s strikeouts (19.7%) are down this season, though they have perked up over the last month (24.2%). There’s nothing safe about this, but he’s only $5,700, so I don’t think he’s a terrible play.
The White Sox scooped Jose Urquidy up off the scrap heap, and he promptly went out there and threw 6 shutout innings with 8 Ks against the Cubs in his last start. Pretty good! This guy used to be decent, but he’s been Incredibly Injured over the past few years and hasn’t spent much time in the majors since 2023. While I doubt he’s as good as he looked last week against the Cubs, he’s also probably not a gas can, and I like the matchup here against the Rangers and their 23.5% K-rate vs. right-handed pitching. Urquidy is also just $5,500, so he’s playable in large-field GPPs.
Urquidy isn’t my favorite punt, though, because that’d be Carson Whisenhunt at home against the Reds. This is a 25-year-old lefty who showed major strikeout stuff at the lower levels, though it hasn’t yet translated to the bigs in a small sample. His leash is full, he’s pitching at home, and the Reds are one of the highest-strikeout lineups in baseball against lefties (25.5%). They will take their walks (11.9%) and hit for power (.191 ISO), so Whisenhunt has plenty of risk, but the risk is mitigated by the $5,000 salary.
SP Rankings
- Messick
- Wheeler
- Ray
- Whisenhunt
- Gilbert
- Boo-urns
- Urquidy
- Zebby
- Ashcraft
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Twins (at Jeffrey Springs)
- A’s (vs. Zebby)
- Rangers (at Urquidy)
- Guardians (at George Klassen)
- White Sox (vs. Kumar Rocker)
- Cubs (at Merrill Kelly)
- DBax (vs. Kevin Gausman)
The slate is stacked on the pitching side, leaving us without a lot of obvious stuff to like on the hitting side. The one thing that should be heavy chalk is the Twins, as they’re going into SAC to face the inflammable Jeffrey Springs. Inflammable means flammable? What a country.
Springs is pretty awful. His strikeouts have fallen off a cliff, he’s a flyball pitcher, his home park is quite hitter-friendly, and he’s allowing a .257 ISO with heavy power to both sides. Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are very clear headliners against a guy like this, though I have no concern with platoon splits. That keeps Kody Clemens in play lefty-lefty, while Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, Josh Bell, Kaelen Culpepper, and Brooks Lee are all decent hitters, too. It’s very easy to see this team being hugely popular, but I can’t even fight it. It looks pretty fantastic.
You can also play the A’s, I guess. Zebby has pitched better lately, but he’s another guy who’s yielded an ISO north of .200 for the season against hitters from both sides. I generally prefer LHBs against him. Jeff McNeil, Lawrence Butler, Jonah Heim, and Carlos Cortes are the lefties of note. I suppose they’re of note, at least. Zack Gelof is their best overall hitter.
Let’s see…what else is there…the Rangers? We still don’t really know who Urquidy is at this point, and Texas does have 4 hitters with barrel rates of at least 9.9% against righties. They are Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Brandon Nimmo, and Jake Burger. Urquidy historically had a reverse right-handed split, which bodes well for Burger, Wyatt Langford, and Ezequiel Duran. I like it. Don’t love it.
I suppose one team who could graduate from like to love is the White Sox against Kumar Rocker on the other side of that one. He can’t seem to figure it out, with numbers for the season that are much worse against LHBs (.203 ISO, .363 wOBA). Munetaka Murakami, Sam Antonacci, Andrew Benintendi, Tristan Peters, and Various Montgomerys will hold the platoon advantage here. Even Drew Romo (.159 ISO) has hit for a little power from the left side. If I had to guess, I’d guess this will be the 2nd-chalkiest stack of the night behind the Twins. But, hey, seems pretty good.
Everyone’s favorite team – The Cleveland Baseball Guardians – will head to Anaheim to face George Klassen. A few weeks ago, the Angels fired Mike Maddux and their entire pitching coaching staff because they apparently weren’t using analytics. Since then, the Angels lead baseball in ERA. Makes u think.
George Klassen has pitched decently since joining the rotation, with a groundball rate north of 50% along with average strikeouts. I always like the Guardians more than I should. Even with Klassen pitching pretty well, I like Cleveland’s lefty-heavy lineup again. Chase DeLauter, Nathaniel Lowe, and Travis Bazzana have the best numbers vs. RHP. I’m not sure what happened to Jose Ramirez, but I assume he will Become Good again at some point. Jo Adell #RevengeGame, too.
It’s also pretty easy to like the Cubs against Merrill Kelly, who occasionally pitches well, but is still utterly washed overall. Lefties continue to take him to Pound Town USA. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the top bat on the slate if you can afford him, followed by Ian Happ and Various Michaels. I’m not concerned enough about Kelly’s splits to exclude Alex Bregman or Seiya Suzuki from stacks.
Gausman has allowed a lot of power to lefties (.207 ISO, .379 wOBA) since coming to Chicago. I never love the DBax – especially without the gamblin’ Ketel Marte – but some combo of Corbin Carroll/Lars Nootbaar/Geraldo Perdomo/Gabriel Moreno is solid.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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