Hello, and welcome to Monday. It’s a holiday in Colombia today, so I’m off from the ol’ day job. We’re looking at a potentially fun 9-game MLB DFS slate with a little bit of everything. We’ve got Coors. We’ve got wind blowing out at Wrigley. We’ve got a couple of potentially dicey weather games, and we’ve got a few aces at the top.
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I was checking Wikipedia to find a fun fact for this day in history, but nothing all that interesting has ever happened on May 18. Chris Cornell died, so that sucked.
Anyway, on to sports.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Monday
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,700, at SD)
- Shota Imanaga ($9,500, vs. MIL)
- Bryan Woo ($9,000, vs. CHW)
- Michael King ($8,800, vs LA)
- Ryan Weathers ($8,600, vs. TOR)
- MacKenzie Gore ($8,000, at COL)
- JT Ginn ($7,500, at LAA)
- Noah Schultz ($7,300, at SEA)
There are plenty of good pitchers out there tonight, but nobody stands out as a can’t-miss type, either. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the most expensive arm on the board at $9,700 on the road in San Diego. This is a positive context shift for him going into pitcher-friendly Petco. I don’t think the Padres are a great offense (.162 ISO, .300 wOBA, 23.6% Ks vs. RHP), and this lineup has more strikeouts than in recent seasons.
Yamamoto’s own K stuff is lagging a bit (24.6%) this season, while his groundball rate is about 13% lower than it was last season. He is allowing more hard hits, and righties have hit for some power (.202 ISO). I’m not really concerned about it. $9,700 makes him the most expensive pitcher on the board, but it’s not really an overly cumbersome salary. Importantly, Yama’s K-rate is up to 28% against RHBs, and the Padres are almost entirely right-handed. He’s the SP1.
Shota Imanaga seems to have leveled back up after a mediocre 2025. The strikeout rate would be a career-high (28%) if he can keep it up, and he’s also done a good job of muting power, which is key for a flyball pitcher. I’m not at all scared of this Brewers lineup against left-handed pitching (.096 ISO, .271 wOBA), but the wind is blowing out to left in Chicago tonight in a pretty meaningful way. Milwaukee has also been a very low-K offense (18.4%) against lefties.
It’s a tricky spot, especially with Imanaga coming at no discount ($9,500). I think he’s playable, I just think the wind presents enough risk to knock him down a bit. I don’t mind rolling the dice in large-field, but I probably won’t play Imanaga in single-entry.
The Seattle pitching really hasn’t lived up to billing this year, but Bryan Woo ($9,000) is still pitching like an ace against right-handed hitters, and T-Mobile is the best pitcher’s park in baseball. The White Sox are much improved this season, but they’re still striking out a good bit (23.8%) against RHP. The issue for Woo is that Chicago can get very left-handed, with as many as 7 LHBs in there against him. I’m ok with Woo – and I’d play him before I’d play Imanaga – but I still prefer Yamamoto at the top.
Michael King is capable of spiking a big-strikeout game on occasion, but is that the most likely outcome against the Dodgers? Probably not, and King isn’t necessarily cheap at $8,800. Just seems like an unnecessary risk outside of large-field GPPs.
Ryan Weathers has been quite a find for the Yankees, with a strikeout rate pushing 30% along with excellent control. Right-handed hitters have barreled him up pretty well (13.8%), and the Blue Jays are one of the highest-contact offenses (18.4% Ks) in the league vs. LHP. It is not necessarily a full-strength version of the Jays, though, and they haven’t hit for any power (.123 ISO). I don’t mind Weathers given the lack of pitching depth on this slate, but it’s also not really a spot to be chasing a ceiling outcome.
MacKenzie Gore is an interesting case as he heads to Coors to face the Rockies. Gore (26%) has always had lots of strikeout stuff, while this Colorado lineup is striking out at an incredible 31.4% clip against southpaws this season. Just disgusting stuff. The risk with Gore is the lack of control (10.8% walks) and high barrels (10.9%), plus the obvious ballpark factor. I don’t typically play pitchers in Colorado, but I might make an exception here. Boom/bust play, but I do like the $8,000 salary.
My favorite play on the slate is probably JT Ginn at $7,500 against the Angels in Anaheim. Ginn’s splits look awfully similar to the way they did last year when he was an ace vs. RHBs and something close to a gas can against lefties. Ginn’s control is a little on the erratic side, but the Angels are a righty-heavy team, striking out a ton against RHP (28%). The only low-K hitter in the lineup is one of the few lefties, Nolan Schanuel.
I don’t think Ginn is a safe play, but given the price tag, I’m happy to play him in any format. Even the power the Angels flashed earlier in the season seems to have dried up, for the most part.
Noah Schultz is a big-time prospect getting a nice park boost going into Seattle. Despite his excellent stuff, he was more of an average strikeout pitcher at the upper levels of the minors, and we’ve seen more of the same in his first tour of duty at the MLB level (20.8%). He’s also walking a ton of hitters (16.8%), which wasn’t really a part of his game in the minors.
Schultz also comes with a groundball lean, which should serve him well against a Mariners lineup with a high GB rate vs. LHP (46.7%). Beyond Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena, this lineup is lacking scary hitters. While I’d rather just find the extra $200 to get to Ginn, I do think Schultz will crack my player pool for multi-entry.
SP Rankings
- Yamamoto
- Ginn
- Woo
- Gore
- Imanaga
- Weathers
- Schultz
- King
Top MLB DFS Stacks (5/18)
- Red Sox (at Seth Lugo)
- Yankees (vs. Patrick Corbin)
- Rangers (at Jose Quintana)
- Cubs (vs. Brandon Sproat)
- DBax (vs. Robbie Ray)
- Giants (at Zac Gallen)
- Twins (vs. Tatsuya Imai)
I assume the Rangers in Coors will carry some ownership, though they may not be overwhelming chalk. Quintana’s 11% walk rate is identical to his strikeout rate, which is Not What You Want. He has also weirdly had more issues with lefties than righties despite far fewer Ks vs. RHBs.
The easy way to assess a team in Coors is: would I play this team into ownership if it were in any other ballpark? I think the Rangers would be a playable stack if this game were in Arlington, but they wouldn’t be at the top of my board. Texas has also been fucking awful offensively against left-handed pitching (.101 ISO, .284 wOBA). I think you can cherry-pick a few bats – Josh Jung, Jake Burger, Andrew McCutchen, Brandon Nimmo – but I’m not psyched to play this team, even in Denver.
The Yankees are at home against Patrick Corbin, which should attract the field’s attention. Corbin continues to Not Be That Terrible, but he’s also just tossing the ball up there against righties and hoping for the best (11.7% Ks). The problem? The Yankees look better against LHPs. Aaron Judge is the obvious standout and the best overall hitter on the slate, while I guess you’re otherwise looking at Paul Goldschmidt, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Amed Rosario, who all have strong data on the season against southpaws. Corbin has done an excellent job against his fellow lefties this year, but I still think you can hunt for home runs with Rice and Trent Grisham lefty-on-lefty.
The Red Sox have been downright poor offensively this year, and this game is one of the contests with PPD risk. However, we also have warm temps with winds howling out to left field if it plays, so good hitting conditions. Lugo got blitzed by left-handed hitters last season, though he’s been far better so far this season. I’d still start with the LHBs if I’m playing the Red Sox – Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Mickey Gasper. I think Boston might be a better mini-stack given the state of the lineup.
The Cubs get a pretty solid matchup against RHP Brandon Sproat with the wind at their backs. Left-handed hitters have done a bit more damage (.250 ISO, .393 wOBA), so Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Moises Ballesteros, and Pete Crow-Armstrong are the building blocks. He’s still allowing plenty of power (.197 ISO) to RHBs, which keeps Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman, and Seiya Suzuki in play for full stacking. Milwaukee does have a pretty good bullpen, but maybe the Cubs can avoid some of the more talented relievers if they do some early damage against Sproat.
This Robbie Ray-Zac Gallen matchup would’ve been an #AceOff in 2021, but last I checked, it is not 2021 anymore. Both pitchers have had trouble with opposite-handed bats this season. Gallen’s K-rate is down to 12% against LHBs, while the barrel rate is up around 13%. The Giants are not very good, but this is a park upgrade for the hitters. Rafael Devers, Jung Hoo Lee, Luis Arraez, and Drew Gilbert will have the platoon advantage, though Devers is really the only one I’d be all that excited about. I don’t mind Willy Adames and Casey Schmitt from the right side in stacks.
Righties have always hit for more power against Ray. It’s not a great set of RHBs, but Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado, Geraldo Perdomo, Ildemaro Vargas, Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel, Jose Fernandez, and Ryan Waldschmidt will take their hacks from the preferred side. While Ray has been much more effective against lefties, Corbin Carroll (10.4% barrels, .241 ISO, .468 wOBA) has nuked same-handed pitching. I’ll keep him in the pool for stacks.
Tatsuya Imai is basically a must-attack pitcher these days; I just don’t really want to play the Twins if Byron Buxton is still sidelined. I suppose it’d be Ryan Jeffers, Kody Clemens, Trevor Larnach, and Royce Lewis if I do get to them, though I like Minnesota better for one-offs or a mini-stack, similar to the Red Sox.
Miscellaneous Things I Also Like
- White Sox LHBs vs. Woo – Murakami, Montgomery, Benintendi
- Mariners RHBs vs. Schultz – Rodriguez, Arozarena, Garver
- Blue Jays RHBs vs. Weathers – Guerrero Jr., Okamoto, Springer
- Brewers RHBs vs. Imanaga – Chourio, Vaughn, Contreras, Sanchez
- Rockies RHBs vs. Gore – Beck, Goodman, Doyle
- A’s power vs. Urena – Langeliers, Kurtz, Soderstrom, Rooker
- The Dodgers
Stack Confidence-o-Meter:
- Cubs
- DBax
- Brewers RHBs
- Yankees
- Giants
- A’s
- Mariners RHBs
- Rangers
- Red Sox
- Twins
- Blue Jays RHBs
- Rockies RHBs
- White Sox LHBs
- The Dodgers
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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