We had some more nice wins in Discord last night and the NBA DFS Core was also strong. If you’re not already, I suggest signing up for access to all of our NBA DFS picks (as well as everything else), but if you want extra help and don’t want to commit just yet, be sure to check out our FREE lineup tool with our 7-day trial.
Thursday offers up another 3-game NBA DFS slate at DraftKings, so there’s money to be made. These slates won’t last forever, as we’re staring at three elimination games. I’ll go over the top must-have plays for this slate, as well as some solid tourney pivots, game stacks, and strategy. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Josh Hart and Aaron Gordon. ANT is OUT.
- Best value plays: Neemias Queta. Under $5k and has a path to 25+ minutes.
- Top game to attack: Knicks vs. Hawks. Fast pace and tightest spread.
- Top stud: Jokic. Not sure I’ll actually get to him very much, though.
- Blowout risks: PHI/BOS. Celtics could easily end the series tonight, but as we’ve seen, every playoff game has blowout capacity.
Best NBA DFS Picks for Thursday
- Ayo Dosunmu ($6.6k) (I’d get to Conley/Bones/Shannon if he’s out)
- KAT ($8.7k)
- Joel Embiid ($8.6k)
Need more direction? Try out our DFS lineup tool if you haven’t already.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Most builds should start with Ayo. ANT and DiVincenzo are out, so he’s going to start and get a ton of usage. It didn’t work out last time, but we can’t really play based on potential blowouts or what happened previously. If we look at role and price, he’s still the easiest click of the slate.
KAT and Embiid are both way too cheap. They are smashing right now and they have major incentive to play their best. They are both under $9k and project extremely well. They’re two huge reasons – not to mention Brunson, Maxey, and of course Tatum – why I don’t feel super compelled to pay all the way up for Jokic tonight.
Just missing the cut: Naz, Queta, and Onyeka. Two centers here that offer really nice value. Queta is the shakeist of the trio, but he’s the cheapest. He’s needed to defend Joel, so he’s pretty sneaky. Naz gets a usage boost with ANT dead and he’s PF eligible, which helps his cause for sure.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/30
My main approach is to feast on the 2nd tier studs on this slate. Jokic nuked in his last game and I was all over him, but I think the lineups we get without him are simply better. I will admit that he should be bringing his A-game with Denver’s season on the line, but you can also say that for anyone.
Feel free to sub Jokic in for KAT or Embiid, but I probably will just look to cram them in with Tatum or Maxey instead.
There’s a decent amount of value on this slate, but few legit punts. Mike Conley and Miles McBride are still in play, but we saw how that worked out last time. The roles are still there for us to take advantage of, but I’ll avoid getting to them too much.
Instead, I’d rather focus on the guys mentioned above, as well as Spencer Jones. I’d also keep an eye on the status of Hart and Gordon. Gordon playing would nuke Spencer’s value. I won’t make Jones a core play just because he can do a whole lot of nothing while he’s out there, but he’s obviously a great play if AG is out again.
If Hart sits, McBride and Jordan Clarkson look better and then we can even feel decent about Mikel Bridges (gulp). But I’d personally just like OG more and double down on KAT/Brunson.
- 🟢 SAFE – All. These guys are all too cheap for this roles.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – None.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 4/30
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Below you’ll see this chart map out each game based on point spread, total, and pace of play.
Wednesday’s NBA DFS Picks for Tournaments
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Jokic ($12.7k)
- Jaylen Brown ($8.8k)
- Paul George ($6.7k)
I was all over Banchero as a GPP play last night and he hit, so let’s keep the good times rolling. On Thursday I like the idea of going after Jokic a bit more than the field, but only if his ownership really stays this low. It almost never does, but if the field really only wants to play Jokic at 10% then I’d go a bit over.
Tatum is a smash spend, but he’s pretty owned. You know who won’t be? His teammate, Jaylen Brown. He’s cheaper than Tatum, plays big minutes, sports a sick 28% usage rate, and we saw his ceiling in this series back in game two. With Boston looking at a close-out game, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Brown fill it up.
I also like PG-13 as a mid-range play on the other side. He popped off in the last game and if Philly has a shot at forcing a game seven, he probably needs to show up again. Maxey/Joel are way better plays in terms of floor and ceiling, but they’ll also be more owned. George at low ownership without costing an arm and a leg is definitely appealing.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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