Saturday's Best NBA DFS Picks - Top Plays for 3/28

We’re back at it again for Saturday’s main slate at DraftKings. The NBA DFS Core Plays stayed red hot last night, as Jayson Tatum (50 fantasy points) was a solid spend, and guys like Payton Pritchard (51) and Reed Sheppard (39) were fantastic plays as well.

The GPP picks didn’t deliver quite the same, however, and if you weren’t on Jokic it’s quite likely that none of that mattered. Hopefully you found a way to cash – and then some – but if not, we’re here to win to start the weekend. You can also check out my top UFC Seattle DFS plays if you’re into that sort of thing, but here we’ll go over the top NBA DFS picks, my favorite GPP pivots, and general strategy. Let’s build!

🏀 Slate Overview

Top injury news to monitor: Nique Clifford, Killian Hayes, Nick Richards, Isaac Okoro, Kyle Filipowski, and Brice Sensabaugh.

Best value plays: Grizzlies – Cam Spencer, etc.

Top game to attack: Bulls vs. Grizzlies. 245.5 total, 3 pt spread.

Top stud: Jalen Johnson. Expensive, but top projection, best ceiling, and facing Kings.

Blowout risks: Kings vs. Hawks (14 pt spread) and Jazz vs. Suns (17).

NBA DFS Top Picks for Saturday

Josh Giddey ($9.7k)
Jalen Johnson ($10.6k)
Leonard Miller ($4.7k)
Jock Landale ($4k)

Update: Jock is in and Onyeka is out, so dollar for dollar he’s the best value on the board. Prefer he starts, but the matchup is amazing and he’s cheap so I might play him regardless. Still waiting on Grizz news. I reckon we will want 1-3 Grizzlies guys, depending on who is out and who starts. Lots of Hawks look great. CJ, NAW, and even punts like Risacher are going to be in play.

🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.

It’s early, but this slate is small and I don’t see much reason not to just go get the two best studs. Johnson and Giddey have the top two projections of the main slate, they’re in a smash spots, and they’re not all that difficult to afford.

Devin Booker is the only other guy who comes close to them, but with the Suns at full strength I don’t like his upside by comparison.

Cam Spencer crushed last night and will once again be a solid value. He’s kind of a placeholder for now, however, as more value could open up. Worth noting Memphis does still have 10 bodies available, too.

NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 3/28

I am not excited to get that cute up top. Tiny slate and Jalen/Giddey look like smashes. I think the mid-range and value is where I’d be looking to get different – maybe over-exposing myself to the two games with blowout risk.

🟢 SAFE – Giddey and Johnson. Aside from blowout risk or injury, these two look awesome.

🟡 BOOM/BUST – Spencer is volatile and the Grizz do have bodies, so he’s not a lock.

Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 3/28

🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.

Bulls vs. Grizzlies

Highest total with the tightest spread. I suppose on a small slate we could get really sneaky and go away from this game and stack one of the others, but this is simply the best environment.

The only hiccup is the Memphis side doesn’t have a long leash. Unless they sit guys and are shorthanded, you’re capped at like 28 minutes for everyone on the Grizzlies. We can look to the Bulls for extra pieces, however, with Tre Jones, Sexton, and Buzelis standing out.

Saturday’s NBA DFS GPP Pivots

🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.

Ace Bailey ($8.1k)
Maxime Raynaud ($7.3k)
Devin Booker ($9.2k)

Not sure where the ownership will land since Utah could be missing two guys, but right now Bailey looks like an awesome contrarian play on a 3 gamer. He wasn’t good last night, but if nobody wants to play him due to his price and matchup, I’ll be over-weight.

Raynaud is a double-double threat who is especially good at scoring inside. Atlanta’s defense is much more efficient than it was earlier in the year, but they play fast and give up a lot of points. He could thrive in this spot, especially if some Kings end up sitting.

I’ll also mention Booker, who should be default come in lower owned than Johnson and Giddey. The matchup is amazing, but the ceiling simply has been non-existent. That could keep his ownership down, of course, which renders him a quality tourney try.

🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?

If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:

Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays that are garnering lower ownership.
Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.