Another solid UFC event arrives this Saturday, and we have a really explosive main event with Israel Adesanya trying to stave off retirement against rising KO artist Joe Pyfer. That fight alone is reason enough to play some MMA DFS, but our Core Plays have also been on fire (6-0 the last 2 weeks), so now’s a good time to hop on the train.
This is going to be an interesting event, but I see a few fighters that instantly stand out, whether it be pure value, upside, or both. I’ll point you to the 3 fighters I am building lineups around, while also touching on some GPP picks that could give you massive leverage. Let’s build!
π New to MMA DFS? Slate Overview
- Best value play: Alexa Grasso. Value & contrarian. Light underdog but she beat Barber in first match.
- Best GPP punt: Julian Erosa. Very low floor here but he has 26 career finishes to his name.
- Top stud: Lerryan Douglas. Top projection despite being just 5th most expensive fighter.
- Safest fighter: Navajo Sterling. He’s undefeated and a huge -675 betting favorite.
- Biggest Upset risk: Israel Adesanya. I think he wins, but Pyfer has monstrous power as a +120 dog.
MMA DFS Core Plays for UFC Fight Night
- Lerryan Douglas ($9k)
- Tyrell Fortune ($8.3k)
- Joe Pyfer ($7.7k)
π New to MMA DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, are usually favored to win, and score takedowns/rack up strikes/and or have a clear path to an early finish. The goal with an MMA Core isn’t to save you cash. It’s to get you three high upside wins that leave enough room to build out the rest of your lineup.
Someone like Lerryan Douglas doesn’t come without risk. There’s a lot to unpack for a 30-year old making his UFC debut, especially since he already has 5 losses to his name and has been finished four times. He also has to face an always motivated Julian Erosa, who remains a versatile finisher and a tough out even at age 36.
That’s the bad, however, as he is an ultra quick and explosive finisher who impressed with a KO punch of Cam Teague on Dana White’s Contender Series last September. He now gets the call against Erosa, who does have the ability to end fights early on the mat or standing up, but could be aging out of this sport and also leaves himself way too open too damage.
Erosa is a GPP flier where you’re not rostering Douglas, but Douglas has a very clear path to a first round finish.
He’ll be chalky and this matchup isn’t what I’d call safe by any means, but he’s one of the easiest clicks of the slate.
To be frank, there’s very little that feels “safe” heading into UFC Seattle. My MMA DFS Core Plays are perfect the last two weeks, but with the fragility we’re looking at, we need to throw caution to the wind a bit. And if we’re doing that, let’s aim high.
That approach leads my to Tyrell Fortune. He’s facing a 40-year old Marcin Tybura who almost definitely needs the fight to get to the ground to have any success. He just got KO’d in his last fight and if he stands and trades with Fortune (11 KOs), he’s going to be destroyed.
I’ll be betting on that.
Speaking of risks, let’s roll the damn dice a bit further and go with Joe Pyfer in the main event. Believe me, that is not me saying I for sure think he’s going to beat Israel Adesanya. If we look at this fight from a practical or technical perspective, the aging veteran is the superior overall fighter.
But we can consider the two blatant realities: Pyfer is the more likely of the two to end this thing in the first or second round. And even if he doesn’t, we could get up to five rounds of significant strikes and takedowns out of him.
It’s all about the value and upside baked into that price tag. Besides, he’s coming in as uber chalk. I think taking risks earlier in this event and blocking off the rest of the field might be the way to get it done.
Other plays I like to WIN (but may not be the best DFS plays necessarily): Chiesa, Sterling, and Abdul-Malik.
- π’ SAFE None. Douglas is a big favorite, so there’s that.
- π‘ BOOM/BUST All of them. Fortune is a mild -135 favorite making a jump in competition and Pyfer is an underdog against a legend.
Sneaky MMA DFS GPP Pivots
π New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool β the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his/her upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Maycee Barber ($8.8k)
- Alexa Grasso ($7.4k)
- Alexia Thainara ($9.6k)
- Julian Erosa ($7.2k)
Let’s start with Alexia Thainara. She is a borderline lock to win and has been awesome so far in the UFC, going 2-0 while averaging a blistering 104 fantasy points per fight. The only issue is she’s the most expensive play of the slate.
And she lost to the lady she’s facing.
But hey, that was a long time ago. It was her lone loss of her career, her only defeat via stoppage, and she hasn’t lost since. More specifically, she’s won each of her last 11 bouts and I don’t see much reason to believe she won’t make it 12 on Saturday.
If you like some punts on this slate and find yourself in that price range, don’t second guess it – she is a fantastic pick.
I like a lot of the ladies on this slate, to be honest. Casey O’Neil even projects well, so this is a rare card where you could load up on some female fighters and feel confident in the scoring.
You just need to pick a lane for the other two, as Grasso and Barber face off. This is a rematch of their 2021 bout, where Grasso edged a much younger and inexperienced Barber out in a Decision. But the fact that Barber even lasted three rounds with her way back then is impressive, and if he watch that bout she really came alive in the last 1.5 rounds.
Barber also hasn’t lost since. You can go back and forth between these two ladies, though. On one hand, Grasso has fought Valentina Shevchenko THRICE, beating her once (arguably twice) and lived to tell about it. She got slapped around by Natalia Silva in her last bout, but she’s as battled tested as they come and at 32, I don’t think she’s cooked just yet.
Barber, however, is 7-0 since going the distance with Grasso. The names she’s dispatched aren’t as impressive, but she’s taken care of business and perfected her game. This is a clear striker vs. grappler contrast, but given what we’ve seen and how it translates to the MMA DFS scene, I like the Barber side.
Both of them will be low-owned, so it all comes down to whether you need the savings or want to take a crack at a low-owned stud. Barber is my lean, but I’ll be splitting them up.
Lastly, let’s not ignore the other side of that Douglas fight. Remember, if you play MMA DFS, the name of the game is volume, not one perfect lineup. You should be entering many lineups and trying a variety of combinations. Part of that process is switching up your Core, so in some lineups fading Douglas and playing Erosa could be a good idea.
You still want the Core Plays to dominate your pool, but Erosa is a monster that can finish fights in a plethora of ways – plus he’s cheap.
You better believe I’ll want some exposure to him in GPPs where I’m not rostering Douglas.
Tip: Just keep in mind that one thing doesn’t always have to replace the other. Make sure you still have lineups that fully fade a core play’s entire fight. Why? Because sometimes fights can be total duds. What if that bout goes the distance and we get two turds doing a whole lot of nothing for three fights? Diversify!
π Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to MMA DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Narratives can be a thing. Guys fighting for a title shot. Fighters battling in front of their home crowd. UFC debuts. The list goes on. Know what goes into each bout and what is on the line for every fighter before you click their name.
- Know fighter styles. MMA DFS is very nuanced. What style fighters use, how often they get finishes, how their defense is – all of this plays into their salary, projection, value, and odds of winning. Make sure you know the fighting styles and path to production for both fighters before making your pick.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor β guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling β guys who can go nuclear.
- 5 round fight. The main event offers a little more upside, depending on the fighter. In theory, the more rounds you fight, the more points you can accrue. But don’t forget about fighter styles and how they generate points. For instance, if your fighter doesn’t get takedowns, he better get a lot of strikes or land a finish at some point.
- Upset special. Upsets happen in MMA (a lot). Not every upset is worth targeting, though. Try to put a good amount of logic/reasoning behind big swings. Ie, what is the path for this underdog to win, and how likely is it? Just as importantly, if they don’t win, how likely are they to get upset, or can they accrue points in a Decision loss?
- Who to target: Lastly, make sure you prioritize fighters who can get takedowns, rack up strikes, secure control time, end fights quickly, and grind out wins. All of those things matter and if you can combine some of them, even better. If your pick can only get you one of those things, you might want to keep looking. If they can’t get you any of those things, your decision is made a lot easier.
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