We had a winning NBA DFS Core last night. Deni, Precious, Hayes, and Cody all smashed. If you had any of those guys, you were quite pleased. If you had them all, you were well on your way to winning. You just also needed to have DeMar DeRozan in your lineup.
Whether you won on Sunday or not, the goal is to stay hot. I’ll look over Monday’s NBA DFS slate to identify the best NBA DFS picks to build around. Then I’ll touch on the top game environments and my favorite tourney plays. Let’s build!
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. Only two games carry blowout risk and it’s not even that egregious. I’d probably avoid going heavy in those spots, but I won’t force it.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? It’s important to balance role, matchup, projection, and blowout risk. But if we can get value via cheap players with somewhat locked in roles, we need to embrace it.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- High game totals tell you where the points are. The total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available. Memphis vs. Chicago is a spot we should have a lot of interest in.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Jalen Johnson fits the bill here. Makes for a really strong tourney play, but logically is a guy that simply doesn’t grade out very well compared to cheaper options in much friendlier spots.
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