Another Friday has arrived, and that means a hefty 12-game MLB DFS slate. Coors Field is sadly back in our lives with the Cubs visiting the Rockies, but this is a very pitching-heavy slate at first glance.
Should be fun! Let’s get into it.
SP1 – Paul Skenes, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, Shane Bieber, George Kirby, Freddy Peralta
See? Aces everywhere you look, and these are far from the only good pitchers toeing various rubbers on this slate.
I’m not really sure where to begin. I suppose that’ll be with Paul Skenes, though he gets a sizable park downgrade going into Fenway to face Boston. I expect Skenes to be fine – and he’s viable by default on every slate – but I’m not sure how vital he is as the most expensive pitcher on the board in a tough spot. Probably more of a secondary play than a core play, but I obviously never mind getting to him. There’s also dicey weather in this game, so we may lose him.
If anyone up here is mega-chalk, it could be Robbie Ray at home against an Orioles team that hasn’t hit lefties all year (.111 ISO, .270 wOBA, 26.6% Ks). $9,000 on DK is a fair asking price, as Ray’s K-rate is down to just around 19% over the past month. It feels fairly safe given the matchup and ballpark, but I’m also having a hard time getting excited about a potentially Superchalk Robbie Ray on a 12-game slate.
Shane Bieber will make his 2nd start of the year at home against Milwaukee. The Brewers are striking out just 19% of the time vs. RHP this season, though Bieber’s spin metrics were up around his prime 2021 levels in his first start last week. There’s still a lot of uncertainty here, and we can’t draw too many conclusions about one outing, but there is some reason for optimism. The issue is the $10,000 salary and the subpar matchup. I’m probably going to play Bieber, but he’s far from a must.
Peralta on the other side of the matchup is more of a large-field play on this slate. The strikeout potential is always there, but Toronto is a very low-K offense (16.3% vs. RHP).
Blake Snell is really just another version of Robbie Ray with electric strikeout stuff and erratic control. I’ll give him a pass on the low Ks in back-to-back outings against the low-K Padres, and tonight he gets the watered-down DBax at home. While Arizona has been another low-strikeout offense this season vs. LHP (15.5%), I’m willing to take a shot on Snell’s upside if he’s going to fly under the radar from an ownership standpoint. He no longer has leash concerns, either.
Carlos Rodon goes back to Chicago to face his old team. Rodon’s another guy who’s seen the strikeouts dip (21%) over the past month, while the White Sox are more of an average than bad offense these days. Never a bad play, but I’d rather play some of the cheaper guys than pay 5 figures for Rodon.
George Kirby hits the road to face the Guardians. Cleveland’s lineup is suddenly chock-full of high-strikeout hitters beyond Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez. Kirby’s hardly an elite strikeout pitcher to begin with, but elite control and power prevention should help him get through some easy innings here. For the salary ($9,200) and current projected ownership, I think Kirby’s my favorite of the high-end options tonight.
I’ll rank ’em this way:
- George Kirby
- Paul Skenes (weather permitting)
- Robbie Ray
- Blake Snell
- Shane Bieber
- Carlos Rodon
- Freddy Peralta
SP2 – Zebby Matthews, Jonah Tong, Eury Perez, Cristian Javier, Payton Tolle, Jack Leiter, Cade Horton, Dean Kremer
Again, this is a silly loaded pitching slate. Jonah Tong and Payton Tolle are a couple of highly-rated prospects making their respective MLB debuts against the Marlins and Pirates. The issue with Tolle is the PIT/BOS game has some legit weather concerns, and a PPD is possible. On a pitching slate this stacked, I’m not sure we need the risk.
Tong is a mix of massive strikeouts and sketchy control, as is the case with lots of young pitchers. He posted a K-rate north of 40% in the minors this season, which is some absurd stuff. The Marlins are a decent, pesky offense and there’s no telling what kind of a leash the Mets will give him, but $8,500 on DK is a reasonable asking price for a guy with slate-breaking stuff. I suspect he’ll be quite popular, but I get it.
Zebby Matthews is allowing a lot of power thanks to a barrel rate north of 12% over the past month, so there’s power risk to go along with his solid strikeout stuff (28.5%). I’m not a huge fan of the matchup against the low-K Padres (16.8%), but we’re still getting a discount with the $7,700 salary. Maybe the matchup and size of the slate will lower his ownership, so I don’t mind this in GPPs.
Jack Leiter posted a career-high 10 strikeouts in his last outing, and tonight he’s going into Sacramento to face the A’s. Leiter’s double-digit barrel and walk rates combined with the tough ballpark give him a very low floor, but we know the A’s also have some Ks in the lineup. Plus, Leiter’s $7,300.
Eury Perez is on the other side of Tong’s matchup against the Mets. I’m generally not a fan of picking on them, and this price tier is pretty loaded. Perez has enough upside to warrant larger-field GPP consideration, but that’s about it.
Cade Horton is going into Colorado, so there’s the risk. He’s looked like the real deal over the last month (28.4% Ks), and the Rockies will do some striking out (24.1% vs. RHP). $7,800 isn’t exactly cheap for a pitcher in this park, but I think he’s playable. I don’t think 2022 Cristian Javier is likely to come back, but he’s a good strikeout pitcher against righties (26.3%) and the Angels are a high-strikeout lineup (26.2%) full of RHBs. Not a bad play at $7,900.
Dean Kremer gets the Giants in the other side of Ray’s matchup. This is really just an average pitcher in an average matchup in a great ballpark, but $8,000 isn’t quite as cheap as I’d like. Guys like Jeffrey Springs, Logan Allen, and Zac Gallen are all playable on this slate, but we have to start making cuts somewhere.
Primary Stacks – Dodgers, Astros, Twins, Cubs, Yankees
On a slate with so much great pitching, good offense is tougher to come by. I suppose we’ll start with the Cubs going into Colorado to face the legendary German Marquez. Marquez hasn’t pitched in about a month, but the strikeouts and groundballs he flashed earlier in his career have all but dried up. I’d certainly start with Chicago’s big lefty bats – Kyle Tucker, PCA, Michael Busch – but Marquez’s splits are neutral enough to keep everybody in play. It’s Coors, and this will be the chalk stack of the slate.
As a result of the huge slate, I’d imagine hitting ownership will be pretty spread out beyond the Cubs. One team that should generate some ownership is Houston, however, against the woeful Tyler Anderson at home. His dreadfulness against lefties, in particular, makes Yordan Alvarez an amazing play, but Houston’s otherwise righty-heavy lineup profiles well in a park geared better toward righty power – Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, Yainer Diaz. The stack builds itself, and the ownership they’ll get is justified. Hopefully Jesus Sanchez cracks the lineup.
Zac Gallen hasn’t really had it this season, and the Dodgers are the Dodgers. His Ks plunging to 11.5% vs. LHB over the last month makes Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman look fantastic, while I suppose Michael Conforto is a human that exists. The RHBs, while less exciting, are certainly good in stacks – Betts, Hernandez, Smith, Pages.
The Yankees go into Chciago to face Yo Gomez, which is actually a park boost for their bats. Gomez has pitched well, but double-digit walk and barrel rates should ring some alarm bells. Lefties generally have the edge here – Bellinger, Grisham, Rice, Jazz – but, ya know, Aaron Judge.
Nestor Cortes isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s a flyballer susceptible to power, and the Twins have some of that. I see no reason to believe Cortes can handle Byron Buxton, while Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, and Royce Lewis are solid cheap RHBs. The lefties – Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach – should be completely unowned.
Secondary Stacks – A’s, Rangers, Brewers, Mets, Tigers, Angels
Both pitchers in TEX/ATH are viable, but so are both offenses. The Texas lineup looks dreadful without Corey Seager or Marcus Semien in it, but they’re cheap as a result – Garcia, Jung, Langford, Freeman, Higashioka, Duran. Leiter may not be terrible, but the control comes and goes. I’d just focus on the usual power bats – Kurtz, Rooker, Langeliers, Soderstrom.
The Mets and Brewers are facing solid pitchers, but they’re talented lineups likely to generate little ownership. The Angels are always good for power hunting, especially in Houston’s park, which is elite for right-handed power.
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