Hello. I take no pleasure in reporting this, but my recent move to a non-DFS state means I cannot, in fact, play paid DFS contests anymore. Pretty lame, if you ask me. As a result, I’ve been forced to make a foray into the world of Regular Betting. So far, I’ve found it rather boring, but maybe, just maybe, we can still grind out a profit and find a way to make it fun.
Regardless, I figured since I’m doing this now, I may as well do content about it. My DFS content isn’t going anywhere. Maybe those of you in legal betting states will get some use out of this. If not, welp!
Here are a few bets I like in the baseball and football streets for tonight. I’m using Caesars odds for this, FWIW.
Jaxson Dart Rush Attempts
- Over 6.5 attempts (-125)
- Under 6.5 attempts (-108)
So the Giants are sizable 8.5-point underdogs tonight in Los Angeles. It seems the oddsmakers are not, in fact, buying fully into the Giants despite a win over the Cowboys last Sunday night. Wonder why? It seems they are also not buying into the Rams potentially being shitty after getting walloped by the 49ers in Australia.
Jaxson Dart played a starring role in that New York victory. As a rookie last year, we saw the Giants utilize his mobility frequently. He ran the ball 86 times for 487 yards and a whopping 9 TDs. He did all of this in just 14 games, and he made frequent stops in the Dreaded Blue Medical Tent along the way. In Week 1, Dart took off and ran with it 11 times for 54 yards. 5 of those were by design. It seems new OC Matt Nagy – a man you may remember from a very underwhelming tenure as the head honcho for the Chicago Bears – wants to make the most of Dart’s legs.
He racked up double-digit carries twice last year, while he totaled at least 7 totes 6 times overall.
I will go out on a limb and assume the Rams’ defense will be a little more formidable than that of the Cowboys this season, because it takes a Real Football Knower to make that assumption. LA has a lot of defensive talent, though the most talent-laden player on that defense – Myles Garrett – is out. Aaron Donald – fresh off a retirement sabbatical – will make his return tonight, though it’s safe to assume this old man will be on some sort of snap count.
This bet is now heavily juiced to the over at -125, after opening closer to even-money. Get your bets in early, I guess. If you’re reading this, it’s too late to get your bets in early, for I didn’t even consider starting to write this blog until like 1:30 PT. Regardless, I still like it enough to bet the over, even if it’s been a little sapped.
DJ Herz Strikeouts
- Over 4.5 strikeouts (+126)
- Under 4.5 strikeouts (-162)
I did bet on this one about an hour ago, and, at the time, the line was 3.5 Ks for DJ Herz, heavily juiced (-180) to the over. The line has since stepped up to 4.5, I guess understandably. When I first looked for this I figured it would be 4.5, so I gladly took the over on 3.5 even at that number.
Fortunately, I still like the over on the new 4.5-strikeout line, especially since we’re getting +126 on it. This will be Herz’ 2026 season debut at the major-league level, though he did make 10 minor-league rehab starts after returning from Tommy John surgery. Herz posted a strikeout rate in excess of 27% as a rookie back in 2024 for the Nationals. Across those 10 outings at the lower level this season, he posted a strikeout rate north of 29%.
I expect the Nationals to have a pitch cap of some sort on the left-hander, though 70-80 is a reasonable expectation after he got stretched out on assignment. The matchup is also a terrific one for him, as the Tigers’ confirmed lineup for this game has a collective 26.6% strikeout rate this year against left-handed pitching. There are all sorts of ways this could go wrong – lower pitch count than expected, total ineffectiveness, he gets shellacked, things of that nature – but the value speaks for itself at +126.
Shane Baz Hits Allowed
- Over 5.5 hits (+102)
- Under 5.5 hits (-137)
Shane Baz hasn’t had a particularly good season in his first with the Orioles, but he does get a favorable matchup tonight against the undermanned, no-good, injury-riddled Blue Jays. Toronto’s lineup for this game has a collective .316 wOBA and .144 ISO on the season against right-handed pitching.
Baz, for the most part, has handled his fellow righties pretty well. He has a groundball rate of around 46% with a tidy .273 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters. The Blue Jays’ best active hitters happen to be righties, and a couple of them – Alejandro Kirk and George Springer – have very high groundball rates vs. same-handed pitching.
Baz’ numbers overall are quite a bit weaker against lefties. Fortunately for him, the left-handed hitters in the Toronto lineup tonight are Brett Bateman, Nathan Lukes, Sean Keys, Josh Smith, and Andres Gimenez. None of these guys are good, and one of them used to be a star for the Atlanta Hawks.
This isn’t a comfortable bet, of course. Betting on “hits allowed” is, admittedly, a very lame market, and the under is also a sizable -137 favorite. I still think that’s the right play against a largely non-threatening offense like this one.
Blake Corum Rushing Yards
- Over 48.5 yards (-113)
- Under 48.5 yards (-118)
Now this is exciting! Backup running back props, baby. Blake Corum has allegedly been a threat to Kyren Williams‘ reign of terror for several years, yet we haven’t actually seen the Michigan product take a knife to Williams’ workload on a consistent basis. Corum did total 10 carries to Williams’ 11 in Week 1, and he averaged 5.4 yards per attempt compared to Kyren’s 3.7. That’s a whopping one-game sample, of course, and Williams still held a significant edge in snap count, 64% to Corum’s paltry 23%.
I doubt the Rams will run out and build their entire game plan around Corum after one productive game, but he also averaged over 5 yards per carry in 145 tries a season ago. He has been productive when given the opportunity; it’s just a matter of…opportunity.
The Giants were better on defense through the air last season, but they struggled to control the ground game. With Puka Nacua looking increasingly unlikely to play, it would certainly make sense for the Rams to lean more heavily than usual on the two-pronged rushing attack. Williams will get first cracks and is the more likely back to plunge into the end zone, but I do think Corum will get enough chances to push for the over on 48.5 rushing yards.
Plus, you’re getting slightly better value on the over at -113.
Washington Nationals Moneyline (+116)
I mentioned Herz will make his season debut for the Nationals. Their hitters will be facing another pitcher making his season debut, right-hander River Ryan. Ryan is a decent prospect for Detroit, but he’s likely to top out at something like 50 pitches before the Tigers presumably replace him with another right-hander, Keider Montero.
Washington (.187 ISO) has hit for power against right-handed pitching all season. I like their chances of doing damage against a mediocre righty in Montero. Given Herz’ favorable matchup againsit a Tigers offense that doesn’t hit lefties particularly well, I think Washington is a decent bet to win this one outright.
The Nats’ +116 moneyline odds look like a bargain.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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