Hello! I’m back from a nice Colorado vacation, so we’re back to the grind. The NFL season just started, so nobody really cares about baseball anymore, but I’ll be back in the MLB streets like a real degenerate tonight. Hopefully you’ll join me, because there’s still money to be won, even if the DraftKings contests leave plenty to be desired.
It’s an interesting slate, especially given the schedule. 6 of the 8 games start at 9:40 ET or later, so it’ll be a late one. Anyway, let us begin.
SP1 – Logan Webb, Garrett Crochet, Tyler Glasnow, Bryan Woo
Pretty healthy group of SP1s out there tonight! Each of these 4 options is projected for around 20 DK points, and it looks as though they’ll all be somewhat popular.
If anyone’s mega-chalk, it’ll be Tyler Glasnow at home against the Rockies. Glasnow was scratched from his last start with a sore back, but he’s apparently good to go tonight. Glasnow is discounted compared to the rest of the high-end arms at just $8,700. Plus, ya know, it’s the fucking Rockies.
Glasnow’s sporting a 29% strikeout rate for the year, and his problematic 11.5% walk rate is perfectly Glasnownian. His numbers over the last month are similar to his season-long stats, and we know there are Ks to be found in the Colorado lineup (24.1% vs. RHP). Glasnow has a bit of Blake Snell to him in that he’s a little too unpredictable to be a comfortable play as heavy, heavy chalk, but it’s hard to hate the salary or the matchup.
Of these top-tier arms, my favorite is probably Logan Webb at home against Arizona. He’s not the highest-strikeout pitcher on the slate, but it’s an elite pitcher’s park, and Webb’s solid combination of Ks (26.3%) and groundballs (54.6%) make him a pretty safe option. Webb won’t yield much power, and the bottom half of Arizona’s projected order is littered with high-groundball bats.
Garrett Crochet is the most talented pitcher on the board, but he’s going into that bandbox in Sacramento. It’s hard to argue with a guy with a 30% strikeout rate – and the A’s will do some whiffing (23.5% vs. LHP) – but the projected lineup has also hit for an incredible amount of power (.232 ISO, 9.3% barrels) against lefties. I’ll still have exposure to Crochet and I expect him to be fine. The issue is $11,000 is a lot to plunge into a guy in this ballpark against this lineup, and it’s not like this slate is lacking alternatives capable of matching the score Crochet puts up even if he pitches well.
Bryan Woo is rock-solid. His 25.2% strikeout rate is the lowest of this tier, however, and he doesn’t have the groundball skills of Webb or Crochet. It’s a plus that he’s pitching at home – and the Cardinals haven’t hit for much power against righties (.134 ISO) – so I’m OK with him. St. Louis is just a very non-threatening lineup, and Woo has been remarkably steady.
All 4 of these guys look terrific, and I wouldn’t fight you if you rostered any of them in any format. I’m dinging Glasnow a bit here because of ownership, while I’m lower on Crochet because of salary.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Logan Webb | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Bryan Woo | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Tyler Glasnow | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 4. Garrett Crochet | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
SP2 – Nick Lodolo, Yu Darvish, Shota Imanaga, Luis Morales, Simeon Woods Richardson
I like both pitchers in the Reds-Padres clash, which is taking place in pitcher- and panda-friendly San Diego.
Nick Lodolo saw his strikeout stuff dwindle early in the season, but he’s back up to 30% Ks over the last month. Combine that with a 53.8% groundball rate in the same span and you’ve got a guy who profiles similarly to Webb from the left side at a steep salary discount. The matchup is tough considering the Padres are a very high-contact offense (17.6% vs. LHP), but they’re also very low on thunder (.139 ISO vs. LHP). All things considered I think we’re likely to get Lodolo at single-digit ownership, and I think he’s a better pitcher than the salary indicates. He’s my favorite tournament play on the board with Glasnow coming in as super-chalk at a similar price point.
Yu Darvish is a wild card. He’s an elderly man who’s only made a few starts this year due to injury, but over the last month he’s been more than respectable (25.8% Ks, 6.2% walks). He’s been allowing power (.233 ISO), but Cincinnati isn’t a particularly imposing offense (23.5% Ks, .152 ISO vs. RHP). Plus, the park is lovely, and the $6,900 salary is extremely nice. If I’m punting an SP2 spot, it’ll be with Yu.
Shota Imanaga goes into Atlanta to face a Braves team that sure looks like it’s given up. Over the last 30 days, the Braves’ projected lineup has a .122 ISO against lefties, while they’re over 23% Ks vs. LHP for the year. Imanaga is more real-life great than fantasy great, and he’s $9,000. Kinda just a GPP leftover pivot away from Glasnow.
Luis Morales checks in at $8,000 at home against Boston. He’s looked good since joining the A’s rotation (27% Ks), but he’s had some wonky control (13.2% walks) against his fellow righties. The ballpark is obviously scary, and Boston is a suboptimal matchup. I like that Morales has shown some K ability against hitters of either handedness, and that alone will keep him in the player pool for GPPs.
SWR gets a park downgrade going into Anaheim, but he’ll face the wack-ass Angels. Anaheim is striking out nearly 26% of the time vs. RHP on the year, so there’s upside on Woods Richardson’s measly 20.1% K-rate. Over the last month, the Halos are up to about 28% Ks, albeit while still hitting for power. The appeal is the $6,300 salary. I think he can pay it off. I prefer Darvish if I’m going all the way down, but Woods Richardson is playable. For what it’s worth, I’m much more interested in the Angels’ side of this showdown.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Nick Lodolo | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ (just play Glasnow instead) |
| 2. Yu Darvish | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 3. Luis Morales | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Shota Imanaga | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Simeon Woods Richardson | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, Cubs, Twins
Plenty of good pitching tonight, but also some attackable matchups for the bats. I assume the chalk is going to be the Dodgers at home against the struggling Chase Dollander and the Rockies’ notoriously atrocious bullpen. Dollander is a highly-rated prospect, but his fastball-heavy approach isn’t fooling anybody at this level. He’s been better on the road – as you’d expect – but this is the most HR-friendly park in baseball, so it’s not necessarily a big upgrade for him.
Dollander is getting murdered by lefties (.475 wOBA, .326 ISO). Shohei Ohtani is easily the best hitter on the slate, while it’s a great spot for Freddie Freeman, Michael Conforto, Hyesong Kim, and the newly-returned Max Muncy. Dollander gets more groundballs and Ks against righties, but I’m still playing Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez in stacks.
The Angels are at home against SWR, one of the most average pitchers on the slate. He’s also allowing a lot of power to hitters from both sides. Zach Neto is always the standout, followed by Jo Adell, Taylor Ward, and Mike Trout for power. Luis Rengifo and Travis d’Arnaud for value. The Twins also blew their bullpen to smithereens at the deadline, so the relievers are poor.
The Cubs draw Bryce Elder, who continues his Jekyll/Hyde act. He can generate lots of groundballs, but Nico Hoerner is Chicago’s only high-groundball hitter. I love that for them. Michael Busch looks awesome, followed by Seiya Suzuki, PCA, and Ian Happ. The absence of Kyle Tucker makes them cheaper, too.
The Mariners’ environment at home is far from ideal for offense, but that’s offset a bit by the tasty matchup against the Lizard King. Mikolas’ strikeout rate is down to a hilarious 9.1% over teh last month, and lefties have torn him to shreds all year (.407 wOBA). I see no reason to believe Cal Raleigh wouldn’t hit 8 home runs against him if given the chance, though he probably won’t get that many chances. Still happy to pay up for Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, and Randy Arozarena, while Cole Young and Dom Canzone are useful cheapies. Seattle’s ownership should be lower than that of the LA teams, which is interesting.
The last team I’ll mention is the Twins, who are almost always popping from a point-per-dollar standpoint. They’ll take their swings againt Caden Dana. Dana’s had a pretty staunch reverse right-handed split, and this team is wildly affordable without Byron Buxton. Royce Lewis, Luke Keaschall, and Austin Martin look like the priorities, though I’m still happy to play the power lefties – Matt Wallner, Kody Clemens, Trevor Larnach.
Secondary Stacks and Values – Rockies, A’s, Rangers, Braves, Red Sox
You can certainly play any offense in Sacramento. I’m inclined to rate the A’s ahead of the Red Sox, simply because I think there’s more value in leveraging against the potential Crochet ownership. Righty power is typically what you want – Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Colby Thomas. Much prefer a mini to a full A’s stack.
Morales has done a solid job of limiting lefty power. That’s kinda Boston’s whole deal as an offense, which is why I’m not in love with this. Still, you can always get to Jarren Duran, Alex Bregman, Romy Gonzalez, and Trevor Story. Kinda like one-offing these guys rather than stacking.
The only real reason to look to Colorado is Glasnow’s likely ownership, but we can hunt for homers in this ballpark. All it takes is a few walks and a blast to ruin Glasnow’s night, and even the Rockies can do that on occasion. Mickey Moniak, Tyler Freeman, and Hunter Goodman is my preferred 3-man.
Imanaga is a pretty average strikeout guy with a high flyball rate vs. RHBs. I’d look to Jurickson Profar and Ozzie Albies atop the lineup, while Ha-Seong Kim is a decent value. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna have been horrible lately and demoted toward the bottom of the order, but neither of them is a bad hitter, obviously.
Texas faces Jose Quintana, a wily veteran lefty who doesn’t typically get destroyed. He’s not missing bats against righties, and the entire Texas lineup is RHBs – Wyatt Langford, Cody Freeman, Josh Jung, Jake Burger, and Kyle Higashioka look solid.
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