Well folks, we are back. I was doing my civic duty of serving on a jury this morning, but the prosecutor decided to dismiss me from the case. So, here we go with another Coors slate. It looks like there’s plenty of solid pitching to pay up for, and 8 games is a pretty manageable number for a Wednesday night.
Let us dive right in.
SP1 – Nick Pivetta, Blake Snell, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob deGrom, Kevin Gausman
All 5 of these guys are at least $9,000 on DraftKings, with Nick Pivetta (at NYM) being the only one that’ll run you 5 figures at $10,000 flat. The highest K-rate on the season of the bunch belongs to Brandon Woodruff (31%), and he just so happens to be in the most favorable matchup at home against those high-strikeout Angels. Milwaukee doesn’t have much of a need to push it with Woody’s pitch count, so something like 80-90 looks like a reasonable expectation.
The Halos have a very watered-down lineup these days, especially with Zach Neto now on the IL. The current group is striking out more than 29% of the time against righties, but they are still hitting for some power at the top of the order. I think the pitch count concerns make Woodruff less of a smash option than Freddy Peralta was yesterday, but there’s still a path to 20+ DK points.
Things get a little tougher after that with matchups. I’m not dying to pay $10,000 for Pivetta against the Mets. New York just has a lot of power (.214 ISO vs. RHP), and they’re only average for Ks with a team walk rate of around 10%. It’s just a tricky spot, and the absence of any discount relegates him to a secondary option, IMO.
Blake Snell is at home against the Phillies. We saw Shohei Ohtani mow them down last night before the Dodger bullpen immediately imploded. As always, it’s more about Snell vs. himself as opposed to Snell vs. the actual opponent. The Phillies are fairly patient (8.6% walks vs. LHP), but they’ll also strike out heavily (26.4%). We know Snell can rack up both strikeouts and walks, and it helps that he’ll have the platoon edge over Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, even if both are still capable hitters against LHP. There’s risk, but I like Snell more than Pivetta.
Kevin Gausman goes into Tampa to face the Rays. He’s been pretty terrific all year, even if he’ll have the occasional meltdown start. The Rays aren’t striking out heavily (19.6% vs. RHP), but it’s also not the most prolific offense. $9,000 on DK is pretty affordable for a pitcher like Gausman with a legit tournament-winning ceiling, even in a tricky ballpark.
Jacob deGrom gets the Astros in Houston, though they’re once again down Yordan Alvarez. DeGrom has rectified his weird early-season reverse-splits, but he is still allowing a barrel rate north of 10% over the last month. There’s more downside with deGrom than there was during his prime, and Houston is a low-strikeout group (19% vs. RHP).
You can make cases for all of these guys. I think I’d rank Woodruff first thanks to the matchup, while Gausman and Snell are next on the list. DeGrom looks better than Pivetta.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Brandon Woodruff | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Kevin Gausman | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Blake Snell | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Jacob deGrom | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Nick Pivetta | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
SP2 – Cole Ragans, David Peterson, Jesus Luzardo, Ryan Weathers, Ian Seymour, Jose Soriano, Bryce Miller
A couple of these guys – Cole Ragans and Jesus Luzardo – are aces, but both come at discounts. Ragans is $8,000 at home against Seattle, though this will be his first MLB outing since early June because of a shoulder strain. The Mariners are a risky combination of power (.220 ISO) and strikeouts (23.6% vs. LHP), and Ragans threw just 56 pitches in his most recent rehab start. I’d probably play a ton of Ragans in this situation under normal circumstances, but the likely short leash is clearly reason for concern. I’d probably have a dusting of him in multi-entry, but that’s about it.
Luzardo ($8,500) is in LA to face the Dodgers. He’s been over 34% Ks vs. hitters from both sides over the last month, but he’s historically much more dominant against his fellow lefties. Dealing with Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez isn’t necessarily easy, but the rest of LA’s right-handed bats aren’t great with Will Smith out injured. I think Luzardo’s a pretty fantastic play at this price point, even against the Dodgers.
Ian Seymour has pitched very well for the Rays, though we know Toronto is a very high-contact bunch (17.1% Ks) vs. LHP. They are lacking power beyond a few quality RHBs, but this isn’t really the spot to be chasing a ceiling.
David Peterson gets a low-K spot of his own at home vs. the Padres (17.6% vs. LHP). San Diego is also lacking power, though (.144 ISO, .305 wOBA), and it’s a pitcher-friendly park. The Padres are also projected to have 4 lefties in there against him, which helps his case, and he’s only $7,800. I’m in.
Ryan Weathers is going into Coors to face the Rockies, an offense much more suited to face lefties. Weathers has pitched pretty well and he’s only $6,200. You don’t need him to pitch a shutout here in order to be worth the salary, so I don’t hate it despite the elements. What Jose Soriano will do is always anybody’s guess. I do like his matchup against the high-groundball Brewers (46% GB vs. RHP) given his own groundball prowess, but his output is always reliant on the fickle BABIP Gods. I think there’s a path to a solid outing at $7,200, so Soriano makes my pool tonight.
Bryce Miller is probably better than he’s pitched of late, and I’m confident he’s better than his $6,000 salary. I’m not thrilled about taking on the low-K Royals (16.8% vs. RHP), but he’s a flyball pitcher in a spacious park, so that kinda suits his game.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Jesus Luzardo | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. David Peterson | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Ryan Weathers | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Bryce Miller | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Cole Ragans | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Jose Soriano | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 7. Ian Seymour | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Royals, Marlins, Rockies, Yankees, Brewers
Coors was fine last night, but “fine” wasn’t nearly enough to win anything of consequence. The Marlins will take their swings against McCade Brown, a man whose walk rate (12.3%) is nearly as high as his K-rate (13.7%). He’s yielding plenty of power to both sides, so I’d start with Jakob Marsee and Troy Johnston, followed by Agustin Ramirez and Heriberto Hernandez from the right side. Like I kinda said yesterday, this team is not good enough to warrant massive ownership, yet I assume they’ll be the chalk. While that’s not incorrect in Coors against a weak pitcher, let’s see what else is out there.
We prefer righties against Ryan Weathers. That’s Hunter Goodman’s music, while Jordan Beck, Ezequiel Tovar, Jordan Beck, and Brenton Doyle would be next.
The Yankees draw Taj Bradley, who’s been largely disastrous between stops in Tampa and Minnesota this year. I don’t trust that he’s nearly as bad as he’s looked, but a lineup with a lot of powerful lefties is a difficult matchup for him. Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Ryan McMahon, and Austin Wells once again stand out, followed by Judge/Stanton if you can afford them.
Bryce Miller, while decent, is hardly overwhelming, and lefties, in particular, have smoked him. Mike Yastrzemski and Vinnie Pasquantino look terrific, while you can get cheaper with the secondary LHBs – Jac Caglianone, Michael Massey, Kyle Isbel. Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, and Salvador Perez are high-quality RHBs you can play in any spot, so I think, as of now, this is my favorite stack of the lot.
I’m not thrilled to play the Brewers against Soriano, but he has been prone to disaster. I think it’s stack-or-nothing for this team, as Soriano can mow them down if he’s on his game. Jackson Chourio is the main standout, but meh.
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