Hello! I was unavailable for #content yesterday because of jury duty. There’s a chance I’ll actually be selected when I go back in tomorrow, and they said this trial is expected to last until the beginning of October. So this could be the last full MLB DFS picks blog of 2025. I’ll pause for tears. Thank you.
Anyway, we’re looking at 11 games on the board this evening, and Coors Field is back in our lives. The Marlins are the visitors, so it’ll be an interesting needle to thread. Let’s break it all down, shall we?
SP1 – Logan Gilbert, Freddy Peralta, Cristopher Sanchez, Michael King
The Mariners are not at home, which dings Logan Gilbert just a bit. They’re in Kansas City, which is a ballpark that suppresses strikeouts, and Gilbert will face a Royals team that makes a ton of contact (16.8% Ks vs. RHP). Gilbert has enough strikeout stuff (34%) to thrive in any matchup, but we’re paying top dollar here for a subpar spot. He projects well, because he always projects well, but my interest in him tonight is pretty minimal. You can always play a pitcher with a 34% strikeout rate, but I’ll be looking elsewhere for the most part.
The better matchup belongs to Freddy Peralta, as he welcomes the Angels to town. Peralta’s strikeouts (27.5%) haven’t been as consistent as Gilbert’s, but the Angels are just whiffing at an absurd rate (26.9%) vs. RHP. There’s a lotta power, as always, so there’s risk/reward, especially given Peralta’s rather unsightly 10.4% barrel rate allowed to righties. I think he’s a fine play, and I’d rather play him over Gilbert even for $500 more.
The other options up top look pretty weak. Michael King threw just 63 pitches in his return from the IL, and tonight he’s facing the Mets. No thanks. I believe in Cristopher Sanchez with his solid strikeouts and elite groundball rate, but I’d rather not pick on the Dodgers if I don’t have to. I think Sanchez is worth keeping in the pool in multi-entry, while King is a fade.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Freddy Peralta | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Logan Gilbert | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 3. Cristopher Sanchez | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Michael King | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ |
SP2 – Shohei Ohtani, Andrew Abbott, Cam Schlittler, Merrill Kelly, Dean Kremer, Kyle Freeland, Eury Perez, Shane Smith, Eduardo Rodriguez
These aren’t the only viable SP2s on such a large slate, but I ain’t got all day. The most glaring option here is Shohei Ohtani, who continues to be underpriced on DK ($8,000) for a tough matchup at home vs. Philly. He still hasn’t cracked 90 pitches in a game, but he checks all the boxes from a skills standpoint (32.9% Ks, 4.7% walks, .108 ISO, .281 wOBA allowed). The Phillies are a capable offense in a hitter-friendly park, I just think Ohtani’s mispriced. As of now, he’s easily my most-exposed pitcher. $7,700 on FD is even sillier. The Phillies also won their division last night, so maybe they trot out a watered-down hangover lineup for this one.
After Ohtani, things get murkier. Dean Kremer isn’t having a great season, and, weirdly enough, the White Sox aren’t even a favorable matchup anymore. Still, it’s not the most powerful offense (.151 ISO vs. RHP). Kremer does have excellent control, and drawing walks is one of Chicago’s strengths. I don’t expect him to be issuing a bunch of free passes here, and he’s $6,900. Think he’s a solid option for salary relief.
Andrew Abbott (at STL) and Cam Schlittler (at MIN) are decent pitchers in decent matchups. Minnesota’s been weirdly decent since selling at the trade deadline (.201 ISO, .334 wOBA, 21.9% Ks). Schlitty’s been a combination of high strikeouts (26.5%) with high walks (10.1%), but I like the $8,200 price point. Abbott is fewer strikeouts and walks in general, but the Cardinals are very low-power vs. LHP (.131 ISO).
Kyle Freeland and Eury Perez are both cheap, but both pitching in Colorado. Perez’s strikeouts have really tailed off of late – especially against RHBs – and the Rockies’ lineup is mostly right-handed. He’s awfully cheap at $6,300 and projecting for some ownership despite the ballpark. I think I’d rather just take the extra savings with Freeland ($5,300) against a Miami lineup that hasn’t hit for much power (.134 ISO) vs. LHP.
Another chalky punt appears to be E-Rod at home against the Giants at $6,500. The issue with Rodriguez is that he doesn’t appear to be good anymore. San Francisco does have a lot of Ks in the lineup vs. LHP (24.6%), but I just don’t think this guy is good enough to be chalk on any slate. I’ll mark him as viable in all formats, but only because he’ll be owned. I’ll be very underweight and may fade him outright.
Shane Smith and Merrill Kelly are MME leftovers.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Shohei Ohtani | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Cam Schlittler | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Dean Kremer | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Andrew Abbott | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Kyle Freeland | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Eury Perez | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 7. Eduardo Rodriguez | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 8. Shane Smith | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 9. Merrill Kelly | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Giants, Yankees, Rays, Brewers, DBax, Coors
If E-Rod is chalk, you better believe the Giants look like a pretty good stack at no ownership. His strikeout rate is down (17%) and his walk rate (10%) is up over the last month, and he’s a lefty who’s always allowed a lot of power to his fellow lefties. Fantastic matchup for Rafael Devers, while I’m otherwise fine prioritizing San Francisco’s power-hitting RHBs – Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Casey Schmitt.
The Yankees flatlined as mega-chalk last night against SWR, and tonight they’ll take their swings against Zebby Matthews. Lefties (.203 ISO, 12.1% barrels, .346 wOBA) have done most of the damage, and New York can get very left-handed on him – Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, Ryan McMahon, and Austin Wells will all hit from the preferred side of the plate. And duh, play Aaron Judge.
The Rays were also underwhelming last night, but they’re back at it tonight in their hitter-friendly home yard against Jose Berrios. He’s had most of his issues this year vs. RHB – Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz look pretty good – while we’ll hunt power with Brandon Lowe from the left side. Chandler Simpson has zero power, but he’ll rack up those steals.
Milwaukee is at home against Caden Dana and LAA’s crappy pen. Dana has double-digit walk and barrel rates allowed in a limited sample. Jackson Chourio is my favorite thing in any Milwaukee stack, followed by William Contreras, Brice Turang, Caleb Durbin, Jake Bauers.
Tristan Beck is slated to open for the Giants tonight. Not typically dying to pick on bullpen games, but there’s a lot of power atop the lineup between Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, and Geraldo Perdomo.
I suppose I should mention the Marlins and Rockies in Coors. Some of the lower-in-the-order RHBs (Joey Wiemer/Dane Myers) have pinch-hit risk for when Freeland comes out, which makes what is already an underwhelming stack as chalk even riskier. Agustin Ramirez, Eric Wagaman, and Heriberto Hernandez are Miami’s best RHBs, which tells you all you need to know, really. Not all that interested. Colorado should be lower-owned – Goodman, Moniak, Freeman, Doyle, and Beck are the ones I’d want the most.
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