It is Friday, and the MLB season trudges on. It actually turned out to be a decent little slate last night despite some early farting and falling down from Jesus Luzardo, but he miraculously still topped 30 fantasy points and survived 8 innings. What a time to be alive.
Tonight, we’ve got a much bigger slate, as is always the case on Friday nights. We’ve got a few more high-priced aces out there, but there is also a ton of value in the midrange on the pitching side. In the most important news, the Rockies are still in San Diego. Randy Vasquez pitched the game of his life against these clowns last night, so anything is possible.
On to the fun we go:
SP1 – Tarik Skubal, Jacob deGrom, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Hurston Waldrep, Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez
Ah yes, a Tarik Skubal slate. Detroit’s all-everything ace heads to Miami to take on a Marlins team that still isn’t hitting much (.134 ISO, .293 wOBA) against lefties. They’ve got some high-strikeout bats in the lineup these days, and Skubal has approximately zero weaknesses. The issue, as always, is the salary, as he’s up to $12,000 tonight. Is Skubal likely to finish as the slate’s highest-scoring pitcher? Absolutely. Is he an absolute necessity in GPPs at $12,000 if he finishes with 20-25 fantasy points? Probably not. You need a ceiling at this salary, so, at first glance, Skubal is great, but hardly a must.
Jacob deGrom and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are the only other established aces out there, and they get tough matchups at the Mets and the Giants, respectively. DeGrom has ramped up the Ks over the last month (32.5%), and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in his first trip back to Citi Field as the enemy. Despite their struggles, the Mets are still a terrific offense overall (.215 ISO, .353 wOBA, 21% Ks vs. RHP), so my interest here is pretty muted.
Yama flirted with a no-hitter in his last start in Baltimore, only for Jackson Holliday to break his heart at the altar. This is another pitcher without a ton of weaknesses, but the Giants have really come around offensively of late. Yamamoto gets a good park boost going into SF, but it’s an imperfect matchup and he’s $10,000. This slate has enough cheap pitching to have me looking elsewhere for the most part.
Trevor Rogers is back to being an ace all of a sudden, and he’s been doing it for long enough now to where it looks real. The issue is his 25.8% strikeout rate over the past month, while good, is still lower than most of the other aces, while a matchup at Toronto (17.1% Ks vs. LHP) is daunting. I like that he’s cheaper than the other aces, but it’s a lil scary.
Hurston Waldrep has pitched well, but a 24% strikeout rate with a 10% walk rate probably doesn’t justify a $9,000 salary for a matchup against the healthy Astros. Houston hasn’t put it together offensively for whatever reason, I just don’t think we need this. Pablo Lopez has been banged up all year and the strikeouts are down. Meh.
Long story short, I really don’t think playing anybody in the upper salary tier tonight is an absolute necessity. My favorite is probably Yamamoto thanks to the ballpark, but all of these guys have drawbacks.
SP2 – Justin Verlander, JT Ginn, Luis Castillo, Brandon Pfaadt, Yusei Kikuchi, Jonah Tong
The SP2 pool is even deeper than this, but I’m a little crunched for time.
It’s scary given the matchup against the Dodgers, but Justin Verlander ($6,600) gets to face them in his cushy home yard. This guy has also turned back the clock over the past month, with a K-rate up north of 28% with almost no power allowed to hitters from either side. I’m a little reluctant to believe a 50-year-old is morphing back into an ace, but he’s so cheap that I’ll have quite a bit of exposure. And it feels terrible, I’ll tell ya.
JT Ginn continues to be extremely splitsy, though he has ramped up the Ks against lefties (25.9%) over the last month. Sacramento is a scary place to pitch, but $5,700 isn’t much to pay for a guy who actually looks competent from a strikeout standpoint. Cincinnati is striking out more these days (23.8% vs. RHP), as well.
Luis Castillo ($7,500) is cheap, at home, and facing the righty-heavy Angels. He has still been a good source of Ks against righties (24.8%) even if his overall skills have waned, so I’m in. Yusei Kikuchi (#revenge) gets the tougher draw against Seattle on the other side of the game. The issue is his strikeout stuff has really cratered lately, and Seattle hits for a lot of power vs. LHP (.222 ISO). He’s playable, but I’m probably on the Mariners side.
Brandon Pfaadt gets a neutral matchup with the Twins in Minnesota. There’s always a lot of power risk with him, but, hey, $6,200. Jonah Tong is one of the Mets’ many terrific pitching prospects drawing Texas at home. The strikeout stuff has been pretty limited to righties (29.6%) so far, and the Rangers only have 4 lefties in the projected lineup. He’s fine, just not a priority.
Primary Stacks – Yankees, Brewers, Padres, A’s, Twins, Mariners
If you accosted me on the street and told me the Yankees were your favorite stack of the day every day, I would not fight you for it. I’d probably try to fight you for accosting me on the street every day because that sounds weird and tiresome, but you’d have a point about the Yankees. There’s so much power here (.239 ISO vs. RHP) that they’re capable of shattering the slate every day, and tonight they get a park boost going into Fenway to face Lucas Giolito. He’s not a gas can, but it is what it is. RHBs have hit him better over the years – Judge, Stanton, come on down – but they’re all in play.
The Padres face Tanner Gordon and the Rockies after scuffling against McKee Johnson or whatever create-a-player started for Colorado last night. Gordon’s another pitcher who isn’t MLB-caliber at this stage of his career, and he doesn’t miss bats. The problem with San Diego is, while it’s a good offense, it’s not one with a ton of thunder (.153 ISO vs. RHP), and Petco Park is among the most pitcher-friendly settings in the league. I’m fine with them, just don’t love ’em.
The A’s are at home against Brady Singer. This is another pretty decent pitcher, but targeting the A’s power hitters has been fruitful in this park all year – Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler.
The Brewers take on Andre Pallante. While he gets groundballs, he’s also been getting destroyed pretty consistently over the past few months. There are ways for things to go sideways for a groundball-heavy offense against a groundballing pitcher, but Jackson Chourio and Rhys Hoskins have hit the ball in the air with power.
The Twins draw Pfaadt, who’s been yielding power to both sides all year. As usual, they’re cheap outside of Byron Buxton. I’d start with lefties Matt Wallner, Kody Clemens, and Trevor Larnach, but still like Buxton, Luke Keaschall, and Royce Lewis from the right side.
The Mariners get Kikuchi, a lefty with a history of allowing plenty of flyballs and home runs to RHBs in particular – Raleigh, Rodriguez, Suarez, Arozarena.
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