It is Thursday, which means there’s football afoot. We’re also in the home stretch of the baseball season. We’re almost to that weird part of the calendar in between the end of MLB and the start of NBA, so weekdays around this time next month will be a little more boring. I suppose that means we should keep plugging away in those MLB streets while we still can.
Tonight’s slate is an interesting one. Coors Field is still mercifully out of our lives for now, and ownership will be a little more condensed with only 6 games on the board. It does look like we’ll have plenty of chalk on the pitching side, which makes things a little clearer.
Let us dive in. Oh, also worth noting this slate starts a little earlier than usual at 6:40 PM ET.
SP1 – Jesus Luzardo, Gavin Williams, David Peterson, MacKenzie Gore, Cam Schlittler, Jose Soriano
On a short slate the expensive pitching pool is a little more shallow, so I’ve relaxed the usual restrictions to cover the $8,000-$10,000 range under SP1. The headliner appears to be Jesus Luzardo, who’ll toe the rubber for the Phillies in their series finale against the Mets.
The Mets’ offense is still imposing, but they’ve been scuffling in recent weeks. Luzardo is about as good as it gets against his fellow lefties (41.4% Ks), while he’s a little more pedestrian (24.1% Ks, 9.3% walks) against righties. He’s projected to deal with 7 RHBs in this lineup, and New York does have a lot of power (.171 ISO vs. LHP). On a slate without many other high-upside aces, I’ll have plenty of exposure to Luzardo.
The enigmatic Gavin Williams is at home against the Royals. He’s occasionally pretty awesome, and occasionally pretty not-awesome. His 23% strikeout rate for the season is just slightly above-average, but his 12% walk rate is silly. The Royals don’t walk much (6.9% vs. RHP), but they also don’t strike out (16.4%). I think the matchup is on the bad side of neutral for Williams, so I’m not too interested in forking over $9,300 for this.
David Peterson toes the rubber on the other side of Luzardo’s matchup. Like Luzardo, he’s lights-out against lefties (31% Ks, 68% groundballs), while righties (18.3% Ks, 10.1% walks, 53% groundballs) give him more trouble. I think this matchup works well for him, as the Phillies’ righties with Trea Turner out injured leave a lot to be desired. There are also lots of Ks to be found here (26.2% vs. LHP), and he’ll hold the platoon edge over Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. $9,000 ain’t cheap, but I like the spot here.
MacKenzie Gore is in Miami to take on the Marlins. He’s sporting a K-rate of at least 26% against hitters from both sides, but the 10.5% barrel rate is a little alarming. Miami isn’t hitting much against lefties (.135 ISO, .291 wOBA), and there are some high-strikeout bats here. Gore’s strikeouts are down and the walks are way up over the last month, while his barrel rate is up at 19%. That’s all a little scary, but there’s upside here at $8,700.
Cam Schlittler is at home against the Tigers. Small-sample numbers aren’t generally all that reliable, but he’s been pretty good overall (26.2% Ks, 10.3% walks). The walk rate is concerning against a Detroit lineup with plenty of LHBs in it, but he’s also striking them out nearly 28% of the time. Detroit will swing-and-miss (23.9%), and they have a low 3.74 total in this one. $8,500 is perfectly reasonable, and I’m in.
Speaking of enigmas, it’s Jose Soriano SZN once again. Fortunately, DK finally priced him up a bit to $8,200 as he goes into Seattle. Soriano is a solid mix of mostly groundballs (66.7%) with occasional strikeouts (21.3%) when he’s right. When he’s wrong, he’s walking everybody (10.5%) and getting BABIP’d to smithereens. The Mariners have a lot of power (.208 ISO, .351 wOBA), but Soriano does a fine job of keeping the ball in the park, and this is a pitcher-friendly park in the first place. While I do think he’s a good pitcher overall, I’m less enthused about paying $8,200 for his wide-ass range of outcomes.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Jesus Luzardo | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. David Peterson | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Cam Schlittler | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 4. MacKenzie Gore | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Jose Soriano | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 6. Gavin Williams | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
SP2 – Bryce Miller, Randy Vasquez, Ryan Weathers, Sawyer Gipson-Long
If any pitcher is Extreme Chalk on this slate, it’s going to be Bryce Miller at home against the Angels. We know the deal with the Angels by now, and it’s the mixture of strikeouts and a lot of right-handed power. Miller’s been injured for most of the year, but he has a track record as a decent pitcher, and, again this park is elite for pitching. Miller is a flyball guy who will yield power, and he’s done plenty of that this year (.203 ISO for the season, .300 since returning from the IL). Not a high-strikeout pitcher, but the matchup should help him in that regard, and, most importantly, he’s only $6,600. I’m not psyched about a guy with a 17.2% K-rate on the season winding up as the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, but I get it.
I do not think I’ve played Randy Vasquez all season, and with good reason. His K-rate (12.3%) is barely better than his walk rate (9.5%) and barrel rate (11.6%). The case tonight is that he’s $6,400 and facing the awful Rockies at Petco Park. Colorado strikes out more against RHP (26.2%), and the power numbers are typically juiced by Coors Field. I like pretty much nothing about this, but if Vasquez is drawing a fraction of Miller’s tournament ownership, I think it’s a pivot worth considering.
Ryan Weathers is a lefty facing the Nationals, which is enough to get me interested. Washington’s best bats are lefties, and they haven’t done damage against LHPs all year (.149 wOBA, .292 ISO, 27.3% Ks). Weathers is pretty average in all regards (22.5% Ks), and this is his first MLB start since June following a lat injury. THE BAT has him projected for 83 pitches, which will suffice on this slate.
The last name potentially worth a look is Sawyer Gipson-Long in the Bronx. He’s barely pitched in the majors this year, but he threw 70 pitches in a start a few days ago against the Mets. He’s not projected to start, but he should come in after an opener to pitch a few innings. He might not be great, but $5,500 may come in handy in some builds.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Bryce Miller | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Ryan Weathers | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 3. Randy Vasquez | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Sawyer Gipson-Long | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Guardians, Padres, Mariners, Angels
Not exactly a murderer’s row on the hitting front, folks. The stack to which I’m gettingi the most exposure as of this very second is the Guardians, which is enough to make me want to unregister the contests I’ve already entered. Alas, I’m in it now.
Cleveland is a crap offense, but they’re also facing a crap pitcher, Stephen Kolek. He does have solid control and some groundball ability, but that’s about it. I like the way lefties who hit the ball in the air profile against him, and, fortunately, that applies to most of this lineup. Jose Ramirez is the one we’re most excited about every time, followed by Kyle Manzardo, Steven Kwan, Bo Naylor, and Daniel Schneemann.
The Padres are at home, but it’s the Rockies. More specifically, it’s McCade Brown, a right-hander with a higher walk rate (13.2%) than strikeout rate (11.3%). I assume the Padres will be the chalk stack of the slate despite the pitcher-friendly park. This just isn’t an MLB-level pitcher, and the Pads torched him for 6 runs in just 1.2 innings in Denver last week. I do not care about handedness when it comes to stacking San Diego – Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, and Jackson Merrill are the guys I want the most, but any warm-blooded human hitting baseballs for San Diego tonight is viable by default. Just be aware of how you’re building your SD stacks. Pairing the Padres with something like Bryce Miller + Jesus Luzardo looks awesome on paper, but you won’t be the only one who thinks so.
The Mariners and Angels get decent-yet-volatile pitchers in Soriano and Miller, respectively. If the bad version of Soriano shows up, the M’s should make quick work of him. Stacking against an extreme groundball guy has a low floor, so the flyballers – Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, Jorge Polanco – are my first priorities. Don’t mind the spot for Josh Naylor either.
The Angels are facing the slate’s chalkiest pitcher. With only 6 games, getting direct leverage against the chalk is very viable, especially when it’s shaky chalk like this. Miller’s numbers are worse against lefties. The problem? Luis Rengifo and Yoan Moncada are the only LHBs here. Otherwise, just fire up the usual thundersticks – Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Zach Neto, Taylor Ward, Oswald Peraza.
Secondary Stacks – Royals, Rockies, Yankees
A couple of crappy offenses and the Yankees. I’m generally less excited to stack against bullpen games, and we’re likely to see Gipson-Long and a handful of relievers out there for Detroit. New York just has absurd power (.247 ISO, .357 wOBA), so hunting for power in your stacks is an easy sell – Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton.
Obviously the Rockies are a better stack at home, but Vasquez is still one of the slate’s weaker pitchers. The issue is if they do numbers against him, they’ll probably get to San Diego’s elite bullpen pretty early. Still, limited slate, so whatever. Vasquez’s numbers are particularly grim against lefties – which puts Mickey Moniak atop the wish list – followed by the actual decent hitters in this lineup – Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Ezequiel Tovar.
Gavin Williams will walk everybody when he’s struggling, but lefties have also barreled him up 10% of the time. Mike Yastrzemski and Vinnie Pasquantino can take advantage of that, while Jac Caglianone is back, too. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are worth prioritizing any time you’re stacking Kansas City.
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