Hello! It is Wednesday. There’s a new Chipotle opening around the corner from my house today, and I’m apparently having this for dinner. Seems like Chipotle’s gone downhill in general over the years, but maybe, just maybe, this new one will be a revelation. If they skimp on the portions, I’m going straight to Yelp, and they’ll subsequently be hearing from my lawyers.
Anyway, we’re lookin’ at a 7-game main slate tonight on DraftKings, while FanDuel starts a bit earlier and has something like 11 games. Those crazy FanDuelies. The focus in here will be on the DK slate, but we have a few extra aces (namely Paul Skenes and Cristopher Sanchez) on FD. I like Skenes the most as a pay-up, but he’s projected for considerably more ownership than a similarly-priced Chris Sale, which is interesting for GPPs.
Anyway, on to the slate.
SP1 – Logan Gilbert, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Blake Snell, Carlos Rodon
Things look awfully loaded on the high-end pitching front yet again. As of now, I see all of Logan Gilbert, Blake Snell, and Nick Pivetta projecting for 30+% ownership on DK, while Chris Sale is coming in closer to 25%. I’ll be a little surprised if Pivetta’s is that high once the slate actually rolls around, but the others seem about right.
We got screwed by another poor outing from George Kirby against the Cardinals last night, but Gilbert is better than Kirby. He’s maintained a K-rate well north of 30% on the year, and he’s been particularly dominant in Seattle. The Cardinals – as ever – don’t offer much power against righties (.144 ISO). They’re about average for Ks (22.2% vs. RHP), but Logan still looks a bit too cheap at $9,700 on DK.
Sale draws the Cubs at home. He got up to 92 pitches in his last start, which is nice to see after an IL stint due to a rib injury. I’d imagine Sale’s lil baby ribs are particularly fragile, as he weighs approximately 34 pounds. Anyway, the Cubs aren’t an ideal matchup given their sub-19% K-rate vs. LHP, but Sale’s own strikeout stuff (31.5% vs. hitters from both sides) kinda trumps the matchup. I think Gilbert’s the slightly better play at the discount, but Sale is an excellent GPP play, at worst.
Snell gets the Rockies at home. We’ve seen both Tyler Glasnow and Emmet Sheehan flirt with no-hitters against these clowns the past 2 nights, and maybe Snell actually has enough game to seal the deal and carry his own no-hitter over the threshold. Colorado’s righty-heavy lineup is a little more high-contact against lefties (21.2%), but I’m not overly concerned. As is the case with Sale, he’s a good enough strikeout pitcher to rack ’em up against anyone.
Pivetta is at home against the Reds. He’s the lowest-strikeout pitcher of the top 4 (26.5%), while the Reds are a neutral matchup overall. It is a pitcher-friendly park, however, and Pivetta’s the cheapest of this lot at $9,000. Because I expect him to be the lowest-owned of this group save for maybe Rodon, I’m interested for GPPs.
Carlos Rodon is at home against Detroit. The Tigers have hit for plenty of power against LHPs (.115 ISO, .365 wOBA), and they’re striking out just 21.1% of the time. Rodon’s okay, but a tournament leftover for me.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Logan Gilbert | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Blake Snell | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Chris Sale | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Nick Pivetta | ✅ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Carlos Rodon | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
SP2 – Sean Burke, Andrew Abbott, Kyle Freeland, Jack Flaherty, Michael McGreevy
The aces look terrific on this slate. The SP2s? Not so fast, my friend. The only thing really standing out to me is Sean Burke for a cheap $5,500 salary at home against the Rays. This isn’t a great pitcher by any means, but he has had some success striking out lefties (23.2%), and Tampa Bay has 7 of those in the projected order. If you need a punt, I’m fine with it.
Kyle Freeland racked up 10 Ks against the gutless Padres in his last start, and tonight he gets the Dodgers in LA. Colorado pitchers are always better on the road, but this is obviously quite the risky spot nevertheless. The 10-K game was also the outlier of all outliers, but he’s $5,000. Playable in larger-field stuff.
Michael McGreevy ($5,300) is the other punt in Seattle against the Cardinals. This guy is allegedly a decent prospect, but his 14% strikeout rate would suggest otherwise. The Mariners have an absurd amount of power (.212 ISO vs. RHP), but he’s cheap and pitching in a favorable park. That’s about it.
The best pitcher of the bunch is clearly Jack Flaherty, but he’s going into Yankee Stadium. The 27.4% strikeout rate is interesting, and the Yankees will strike out (24% vs. RHP), but Flaherty’s power issues against lefties make him a tougher sell in the best lefty power park in the league. I do think he’s better than the $7,500 salary, though.
Andrew Abbott is having a stellar season, but the Padres are a very low-strikeout offense against LHP (17.5%). Not really the spot to be chasing a ceiling outcome, but $8,000 is reasonable enough.
I suppose the moral of the story is you’re probably better off paying up at both pitching spots tonight outside of larger-field, multi-entry stuff.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? | Cash Viable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Sean Burke | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 2. Kyle Freeland | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 3. Jack Flaherty | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 4. Michael McGreevy | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| 5. Andrew Abbott | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
Primary Stacks – Dodgers, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners
Hard to have a ton of love for the bats tonight with so many aces taking the mound. Even the teams facing lesser pitchers don’t look great.
As usual, the Dodgers are the headliners at home against Kyle Freeland. Maybe Freeland keeps it going tonight after his wild most recent outing, but I’m willing to bet against it. Righties historically do the most damage against the left-hander, meaning Will Smith, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez join Shohei Ohtani as the headliners. Tommy Edman is apparently back, while I’m fine with Alex Call, Andy Pages, and Kiké Hernandez in stacks. Just note there’s pinch-hit risk with guys like Call and Kiké.
Rodon is something resembling an ace, but I mentioned all the Tigers’ power vs. LHP. Rodon has a walk rate pushing 11% against righties, and he’s historically more of a flyball guy. Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson, Wenceel Perez, Jahmai Jones, and Dillon Dingler all have ISOs of over .200 this season against left-handed pitching. Javier Baez isn’t far behind. There’s pinch-hit risk with Jones, as well. I don’t feel great about this, but I don’t really feel great about anyone here beyond the Dodgers.
Both sides of the Houston-Toronto game are interesting with Jason Alexander and Jose Berrios squaring off. Alexander’s pitched pretty well for the ‘Stros, but lefties have crushed him. Toronto’s lefties aren’t great, but Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger have a shitload of power. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, and Andres Gimenez are less exciting, but at least they’re lefties. You can always play George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Berrios used to be very attackable with LHBs, but he’s been incredibly reverse-splits this season, as RHBs have a barrel rate of nearly 18% against him. Houston is righty-heavy, which I guess is good, but I’m still happy to get to Yordan Alvarez and Jesus Sanchez here. Jeremy Pena, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Yainer Diaz all look pretty, pretty good.
Because Michael McGreevy doesn’t miss bats, the Mariners are also a solid stack despite the pitcher-friendly park. He’s been able to keep the ball on the ground against RHBs, but lefties (.212 ISO, .393 wOBA) have crushed him. Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Jorge Polanco make for a solid mini-stack, but I don’t mind J-Rod/Arozarena in full stacks.
Secondary Stacks – Yankees, Padres, Braves
Not much else is super exciting. The Yankees always have a case for the primary stacks section thanks to their immense power. I’m not thrilled to stack against Flaherty, especially with an expensive stack, but you can stack this team every day. Lefties – Bellinger, Grisham, Rice, Jazz, Wells/McMahon – look best.
Abbott has been good, but he’s a flyball righty with a history of yielding dongs to RHBs. Good spot for Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Ramon Laureano. Best as a mini.
I don’t think Jameson Taillon is bad, but he’s coming off the IL and he’s, by default, one of the weaker pitchers on the board. Righties have a .250 ISO against him, while lefties have barreled him up 10.8% of the time. Atlanta’s lineup still looks pretty good on paper – Acuna, Olson, Profar, Albies, Ozuna, Harris.
Leave a Reply