Happy Monday!…? Sure, Happy Monday. We’re looking at sizable MLB slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, and for the next 4 days we’re going to have to deal with the question of what to do with the Dodgers at Coors Field. Fun times ahead!
So, my wife and I have a couple of cats. Last night as we’re dozing off to sleep, we suddenly hear loud shrieking coming from just outside the door. Sometimes the cats get into little kerfuffles and stuff, and they’ll usually resolve it when one surrenders and scampers away. The battles don’t usually require human intervention, so I was just lying there hoping they’d come to some sort of treaty on their own.
The shrieking continued, however, and it quickly escalated to the Frantic Hissing Stage. That’s how you know things are really getting heated, so, quite reluctantly, I got up and went out there doing the whole, “HEY, HEY!” de-escalation tactic you do when your cats are on the verge of murdering one another. They stopped dead in their tracks as if nothing happened, though both had the famed bush tail. Clear evidence of tomfoolery.
Then, when I turned on the light, there were about 15-20 separate tufts of cat hair scattered around the carpet. I’m used to seeing a tuft – maybe two – in the aftermath of a war, so this was quite a sight. No more than 5 minutes after cooler heads prevailed, they both hopped up onto the bed together and slept cozily through the night. It was as if they each hadn’t tried to end the other’s life mere moments ago. The moral of the story, I suppose, is that cats are sociopaths.
Anyway, you’re not here for cat tales. You’re here for baseball talk. So let’s baseball talk.
SP1 – Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Spencer Strider, Trevor Rogers, Robbie Ray
At first glance, this is not a great slate for pitching. Yoshinobu Yamamoto against the Rockies would be mega-chalk if this game were happening in LA, but the Coors Field factor throws a wrench into things. Colorado is a poor offense wherever they’re taking their swings, but playing pitchers in this ballpark is inherently risky.
Yamamoto’s skills (28.5% Ks, 8.7% walks, 52.3% groundballs) are stellar across the board, and he generally mutes power pretty well. I like that he’s slightly discounted at $9,400 on DK, while $10,300 on FD is a pretty full asking price. I’m likely to have more exposure to Yama than any of the other expensive pitchers on DraftKings, while I don’t think he’s all that necessary on FD.
If any of these guys are chalk, I’m guessing Spencer Strider will come in a little higher-owned than Yama based on projections. The issue is most projection systems use a large sample of data, and that may make Strider project better than he should based on current performance. The 26.8% strikeout rate – while above-average – is nowhere near the elite mark he posted pre-TJ.
Strider’s also yielded a high .208 ISO, and he’s walked 11.5% of lefties and 9.4% of hitters overall. I suppose his matchup against the White Sox is okay, but one thing Chicago will do is take their walks (8.6% vs. RHP). That could lead to some long innings and a short outing. Strider’s salaries are essentially the opposite of Yamamoto’s, as he’s up to $10,000 on DK and down at $9,300 on FD. I won’t fade him completely on DK, but I’ll be well under the field’s ownership. I think he’s a better option on FD with the discount.
Robbie Ray is a solid pitcher overall – and Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly setting – but he isn’t the high-strikeout dynamo he used to be, and the Padres are a very high-contact offense (18% Ks vs. LHP). I like that Ray consistently tops 100 pitches, but that’s about it. I don’t think he’s really worth the top-dollar asking price.
Trevor Rogers is the most expensive pitcher on FD ($10,500) while he’s up to $9,000 on DK. I was a little bewildered when I saw that, but it’s hard to argue with his recent results. He finally looks like the guy who found some early-career success with the Marlins before injuries derailed him. The underlying stuff says he’s due for some regression on his ERA, and he gets a tough draw in Boston. I don’t hate Rogers as a potentially lower-owned spend on DK, but I’m out on that FanDuel salary.
SP2 – Dustin May, Nestor Cortes, Brady Singer, Yoendrys Gomez, Victor Mederos, Gavin Williams, Zac Gallen
Things aren’t great down here, either, but saving salary at SP2 is appealing given the lack of appealing high-end plays, plus the bats we’ll want to pay up for.
I think the chalkiest SP2 is likely to be Nestor Cortes in San Diego against the same Giants team he faced up north last week. He’s barely pitched this season due to injury, but the strikeouts (21.5%) are comparable to his career rate. The double-digit walk and barrel rates are concerning, as is his short leash. On the bright side, the Giants have been garbage (27.7% Ks, .116 ISO) against left-handed pitching, and Cortes is affordable on both DK ($6,500) and FD ($7,600). I think he’s a very strong play, even on FanDuel.
Dustin May continues to be wildly inconsistent, and we saw him spike a big strikeout game in Houston last week. He’s been very reverse splitsy with the Ks this season (25.8% vs. LHB, 17.4% vs. RHB), and perhaps that’s a good thing against a Baltimore lineup projected to have 7 lefties in it. This is a risky spot given the O’s power (.171 ISO vs. RHP) in a hitter-friendly Fenway, but I like the nice $6,900 DK salary. I slightly prefer Nestor overall, but May is a solid pivot who should be lower-owned. I’d just take the $900 savings to Cortes on FD.
Brady Singer has been outstanding over the past month, with a strikeout rate north of 25% to hitters from both sides and an excellent 55.6% groundball rate vs. his fellow righties. The Angels will strike out (25.3% vs. RHP), and their scariest bats are righties. The spot sets up well enough overall, so I have interest.
I could see both Gavin Williams and Zac Gallen being fairly popular against one another. These are 2 more inconsistent pitchers who’ve flashed occasional upside. I think I’d rather just get to Singer against the Angels if I’m shopping in this range, but they’re playable.
Yoendrys Gomez and Victor Mederos are children who’ve barely pitched in the majors so far. Gomez racked up an impressive 7 Ks in 5 innings in his first start against the Tigers last week, though the spot tonight is tougher against a Braves lineup with Ronald Acuna Jr. back in it, but he’s only $5,500 on DK. I don’t think he has a long leash – which gives him major risk – but he’s playable. I think Mederos has even less strikeout upside based on his middling minor-league numbers, but he’s $5,000. If you need the savings, fine. I’d rather play these guys than the $4,500 Kyle Freeland against the Dodgers.
Primary Stacks – Dodgers, Reds, Diamondbacks, Braves
So, we’ve got the Dodgers taking on Kyle Freeland and the Rockies’ miserable bullpen in the game’s best hitting environment. The sites did a decent job of pricing these guys up enough to make it at least somewhat difficult to fully stack them unless you make sacrifices elsewhere.
Freeland has some groundball ability against lefties – which makes Freddie Freeman more of a luxury than a priority, IMO – but he’s just out there throwin’ baseballs hoping righties don’t annihilate him. I think Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, and Andy Pages are the most alluring options, but they sure won’t come cheap. The rest of it is fine, just note there’s at least some pinch-hit risk with guys like Alex Call.
If you’re stacking anyone but the Dodgers, you likely don’t have to worry too much about ownership. My first stop would be the Reds against Victor Mederos, a young righty who didn’t flash a whole lot of potential before the Angels called him up. The issue with Cincinnati is the lineup is just kinda okay overall. Elly De La Cruz is the everyday standout, while I’m otherwise interested in Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marte, and Miguel Andujar. The Angels, like the Rockies, have a pretty dreadful bullpen behind their starter.
Arizona probably won’t be on many radars against Williams, but this is a guy with a 12% walk rate who can get himself into trouble in a hurry. The top of this lineup is still good – Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo – while Adrian Del Castillo is a solid hitter by catcher standards.
I think Gomez will garner some ownership against the Braves, so we’re potentially getting a little leverage with Atlanta at home against an inexperienced right-hander and a shaky Chicago bullpen. Ronald Acuna Jr. is probably my favorite non-Dodger hitter on the slate, and I’d then prioritize Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, and Jurickson Profar in stacks.
Secondary Stacks and One-Offs – Padres, Rockies, Angels, Romy Gonzalez, Sal Frelick, Samuel Basallo
Ray is good, but he’s always had trouble with right-handed power. I like a Manny Machado-Fernando Tatis Jr.-Ramon Laureano mini stack for San Diego.
As always, power-hunting with the Angels looks appealing, even against a decent pitcher. Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Jo Adell, etc.
You can always stack Colorado in Coors even against Yamamoto. I likely won’t get to a ton of them, but neither will the field.
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