Howdy! It’s Friday before a vacation and it’s not like I want to do my actual job, so I decided to write about today’s 2-game MLB playoff slate. This could be the final multi-game baseball slate of 2025, so we might as well play it.
The Brewers are facing elimination tonight, while the Blue Jays and Mariners will play Game 5 this afternoon with the series tied at 2 games apiece. This home game feels like something close to a must-win for the Mariners with 2 more games in Toronto potentially looming, but baseball is inherently unpredictable.
Anyway, rather than doing the usual pitcher + stacks breakdown, I’ll just give general thoughts on how I’ll approach today’s 2-gamer.
Ohtani Chalk Day
The Dodgers will turn to Shohei Ohtani tonight on the mound with a potential trip to the World Series on the line. LA has a cushy 3-0 lead in the series, and he’s arguably the Dodgers’ most talented starter. The Brewers offense he’ll face in this one is also pretty clearly the weakest of the 4 teams remaining, so I’m assuming we’re going to see massive ownership on the Dodgers’ right-hander on this slate.
Ohtani was limited for most of the year, but they gave him a full leash in his lone previous outing of this postseason in Game 1 against Philadelphia. Ohtani posted a strikeout rate of nearly 34% during the season, and the command issues that plagued him earlier in his career seem to be no more. Milwaukee is a high-contact offense (18.8% Ks vs. RHP) – so it’s not a perfect spot – but there’s also very limited power here (.159 ISO).
As of now, I think you just play Ohtani and figure out the rest later. He’s the most likely of tonight’s pitchers to put up a fantasy score you absolutely have to have. If you’re multi-entering, though, you certainly don’t need him in 100% of your portfolio. In non-Ohtani lineups, I think the best course is to stack the Brewers against him. If he really fails and takes 60%+ of the field with him, there’s a decent chance Milwaukee’s hitters did what you needed them to do. The Brewers are also going to be the lowest-owned stack on this slate by a mile, so the way to get leverage today is exceedingly clear.
Lineup Construction
Whether to play Ohtani is a decision point, and the next decision you’ll have to make is either who you play if you’re fading him or who you’re pairing him with. Kevin Gausman is the second-best pitcher on the board, followed by Bryce Miller and Jose Quintana. I expect ownership to line up in that order, as well.
If I’m playing Ohtani, I’m likely fading Gausman. The Ohtani + Gausman pairing has the highest raw-points projection, and it’s also going to be the most popular construction. As a result, I’m likely to be over the field on Ohtani and pretty well under on Gausman. In non-Ohtani builds, I’m obviously playing Gausman as the SP1 instead.
So, I’ll be playing Miller and Quintana in every single lineup that includes Ohtani. Because I’m not playing Gausman, I reckon I’ll stack against him in those lineups with 4/5-man Seattle looks. While Gausman’s splits are generally neutral, lefties have hit for some power against him (.359 ISO) over the last 30 days. That puts Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Jorge Polanco at the forefront of Mariner stacks, though I’ll still have plenty of Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, and Eugenio Suarez in the portfolio.
The secondary stack in those Seattle 5-mans will simply be stacks against the other pitcher I’m fading. So, if I’m pairing Ohtani + Quintana, I’ll go Seattle + Toronto with the bats. If I’m playing Miller with Ohtani, it’ll be Seattle + Los Angeles.
I’m not against playing a hitter against one of my pitchers as a one-off, but I generally want to avoid it. The one scenario where I think it’s +EV to play a hitter against your pitcher is if you are pairing Ohtani + Gausman. If we see something like we saw in Game 1 – where Gausman pitched well and still gave up a dong to the Big Dumper – it’s possible for that kind of lineup with both players against each other to get there. Plus, those lineups have a better chance to be unique, as the field isn’t gonna play bats against their SP. Given the lack of power in the Brewers’ offense, I’d rather play a Mariner against Gausman in a Gausman lineup than a Brewer against Shohei in an Ohtani lineup.
I already mentioned that I’ll get to the Brewers in some capacity in lineups that do not contain Shohei.
While full 5-man stacks are generally less necessary on a small slate, I do still want to correlate as much as possible. If a single team breaks the slate and scores 14 runs – far from a guarantee, but in GPPs we hunt ceiling – I want as many pieces as possible of that offense.
Summary
As mentioned, the way I’m building today is pretty straightforward. I think the path to the top of tournaments is to split up Ohtani and Gausman. Ohtani + Gausman lineups are eating a ton of ownership, and there’s significant risk of duplication. Lineups with both of them will be what most optimizers are spitting out, and splitting them is one very easy way to zig where most of the field is zagging.
This is an admittedly aggressive take, but fortune favors the bold in GPPs.
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