Hello! And Happy Friday! The final Friday of MLB’s regular season, in fact. We’re just a few days from Hockey SZN, so that’s gonna be awesome, and I’ll be writing about those slates once they roll around. This is, however, the final MLB DFS Picks post of 2026, and it’s been a good time. Thank you, again, if you’ve been reading these walls of nonsense.
It’s a little late today. I’ve been busy writing the NFL Week 3 stacks blog and shopping for very important new-home artwork on the internet. But we should get down to business. So let’s do that.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Friday
- Tarik Skubal ($11,000, at Giants)
- Gavin Williams ($9,700, at Royals)
- Joe Ryan ($9,700, vs. Rangers)
- Jacob deGrom ($9,700, at Twins)
- Reid Detmers ($9,400, at Mariners)
- Hunter Brown ($8,900, at A’s)
- Sean Burke ($8,500, vs. Rockies)
- Eury Perez ($8,200, vs. Braves)
- Jose Soriano ($8,000, vs. Reds)
- Bryce Miller ($7,500, vs. Angels)
This is an absurdly rich pitching slate. At the top we have Tarik Skubal checking in at a whopping $11,000 for a road matchup against the Giants. Skubal’s outing against these same Giants a week ago in LA, but that shouldn’t affect our thinking at all. It seems like Skubal Likes To Pitch Like Shit, but we probably just hold it against him too much whenever he allows, like, one run. He still has elite numbers in every regard (29.4% Ks, 4.5% walks, etc.). The Ks against RHBs have dipped to 22% over the last month, but this Giants lineup is whiffing a ton (26%) against southpaws. Their .163 ISO is not great to begin with, but it’s also inflated by some high small-sample figures from guys like Marcelo Mayer (20 PAs) and Christian Koss (61). This is not a good offense. They have a .285 wOBA against lefties.
The Dodgers’ playoffs won’t start for a week. They’ve been public about how they want to give their pitchers close to full workloads to try and keep them in rhythm ahead of the upcoming break. I think 90 pitches for Skubal is a fair expectation, and I’m probably just playing him.
Because I’m paying for Skubal and think there are some solid options in the lower tier, I likely won’t get a ton of what is a truly stacked second tier. The Guardians have clinched a postseason spot, though they haven’t yet clinched the AL Central, as they only have a one-game lead over the White Sox heading into the weekend. Because winning the Central means the No. 2 seed and a bye, I assume Cleveland will be playing for reals this weekend in KC.
Gavin Williams is just fantastic (33.4% Ks, 7.8% walks, 44.4% groundballs), and he’s been ungodly (41.2% Ks) over the last 30 days. He does allow a lot of hard contact (11.4% barrels), and Kauffman Stadium is a ballpark that suppresses strikeouts. The Royals (19.9%) do not strike out much in the first place, and they’ve been a respectable enough offense overall (.174 ISO, .323 wOBA) with much-improved numbers over the last 30 days (.214 ISO, .352 wOBA). I just don’t think it’s a great spot for Williams, even if $9,700 is an underpay for his skills. Could be a hot take that burns me completely, but that’s where I’m at.
Joe Ryan and Jacob deGrom are also both $9,700, and they’ll face each other in Minneapolis. Ryan (20% Ks, .263 ISO, .406 wOBA) has been pretty brutal over the last month coming off injury. I’m not scared of the Rangers, but I see no reason to play an out-of-form Ryan, especially with Minnesota playing for nothing. The Rangers are still fighting the Astros for a playoff spot, so deGrom should have a full leash. DeGrom has also leveled up again (35.2% Ks) over the last month, and he’s slowed down on the Servin’ Up Dongs front. Minnesota (.190 ISO) has a lot of power, and they’re only an average matchup for Ks. I’d play deGrom before Williams or Ryan on this slate, but I doubt I’ll have much of him, either.
Reid Detmers gets a nice park boost going into Seattle, where he’ll face a Mariners team that has, mercifully, been put out of its misery. And our misery. Mostly our misery, in fact. Detmers is stellar (28.4% Ks, 6.4% walks), and the Mariners (.159 ISO, .330 wOBA) haven’t done much slugging vs. LHP in the last 30 days. Detmers is also pricier than he’s been for most of the season, and his leash is pretty unpredictable for the lost-cause Angels. I will now say I’d rather play Detmers than deGrom, which means I’d rather play Detmers than Williams or Ryan, but, again, it’s not a guy I’d have a ton of.
PretendingNoahCameronisnot$9,000 Hunter Brown is $8,900 and facing the A’s in Sacramento. He’s yet another pitcher who suddenly looks outstanding over the last month (39.3% Ks, 7.1% walks, 60% groundballs), but it’s a major negative context shift, and it looks like Brown is gonna be hugely popular. I’m not playing Brown, but I’m very happy to play against him on a warm night up there in Sacramento.
The White Sox are in the playoffs, and Sean Burke gets a nice matchup at home against the Rockies. He’s been good for most of the year, but that has most certainly not been the case over the last month, as his 18.8% walk rate is just 1% lower than his K-rate. He’s also allowing plenty of power, especially to lefties. Colorado is a decent offense vs. RHP, and Burke’s $8,500 salary isn’t even all that cheap.
I like Eury Perez and think the Braves are overrated, so he’s a solid large-field play. The pitchers more on my radar here are Jose Soriano and Bryce Miller against the Reds and Angels, respectively. They’re similar offenses with tons of strikeouts and also a decent amount of power. The Reds are scarier than the Angels overall, but Soriano’s heavy groundball rate helps him neutralize power, for the most part. His strikeout rate is down since coming to Toronto, but, more importantly, so is his walk rate. Soriano is just $8,000, and I like the spot against a Cincy offense striking out around 25% of the time vs. RHP.
Miller has rounded into form a bit lately, thanks in no small part to matchups against the Rockies and A’s. The Angels are a tasty matchup, as well, and Miller’s only $7,500 in a pitcher-friendly park. There’s no telling what kind of leash he’ll have in a truly meaningless baseball game, but he’s probably the cheapest option in which I have interest on this slate.
SP Rankings
- Skubal
- Soriano
- Miller
- Perez
- Detmers
- deGrom
- Williams
- Ryan
- Burke
MLB DFS Stacks for Friday
- Astros (at Jacob Lopez)
- A’s (vs. Hunter Brown)
- Rangers (at Joe Ryan)
- Dodgers (at Yunior Marte)
- White Sox (vs. Tomo Sugano)
- Brewers (vs. Michael McGreevy)
- Marlins (vs. Ray Kerr)
- Rockies (at Sean Burke)
The Astros are probably the chalk again as they continue this series in Sacramento. Lucas Spence hit 3 home runs last night. This is a man who had a grand total of zero MLB dongs on his ledger going into that game. Jacob Lopez was a disaster to begin the season, got banished to the minors, came back, looked ace-like, and has gone back to being crappy over the last month. Righties (.338 ISO, .438 wOBA) have really tanned his hide, and Houston is righty-heavy between Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, and Cam Smith. Nelson Velazquez has some pop. Yordan Alvarez is just as dangerous against lefties as righties.
I think the real edge on this slate is with the A’s against Brown, who appears as though he’ll be popular. Brown hasn’t really pitched well on the season as a whole, while the A’s have gotten a little healthier and, as a result, a little better down the stretch. I’d be playing them even if Brown weren’t chalky, so the added leverage is a nice lil cherry on top. Shea Langeliers and Zack Gelof are the primary sluggers. Lawrence Butler, Henry Bolte, and Donovan Walton have come on of late. Jeff McNeil and Josh Kuroda-Grauer are solid hitters. Give me all of this.
The Dodgers are going into pitcher-friendly San Francisco, but Yunior Marte is likely the worst pitcher on the slate. The park isn’t so pitcher-friendly if the pitcher is extra hitter-friendly. Marte has a beastly 13.3% strikeout rate so far, with righties (.268 ISO, .367 wOBA) doing most of the damage. I’m not worried about his splits. Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Max Muncy, Will Smith, Mookie Betts…it’s all good.
Joe Ryan doesn’t look quite like Joe Ryan despite looking exactly like Joe Ryan, and even when Joe Ryan looks like Joe Ryan in every regard, he’s still a pitcher who will allow a lot of power, especially to LHBs. Corey Seager and Brandon Nimmo are the only lefties of note left here with Joc Pederson injured, but I’m fine with Wyatt Langford and Ezequiel Duran from the right side.
Tomoyuki Sugano is still gettin’ starts for the Rockies every few days, a streak that will end in a few more days when the Rockies’ season is over. The White Sox are still chasing the Guardians for the Central, so all systems go for these power-hittin’ lads against a pitcher giving it up in all ways to hitters from both sides – Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery, the whole gang.
Fun fact about Colson Montgomery – he’s just one strikeout away from setting the single-season record for Ks as a hitter. History is in the offing, folks. Though something tells me Tomoyuki Sugano won’t be the one who settles it. He’s currently tied with Rockies legend Mark Reynolds, though Reynolds set the record as a D-Bac.
The Marlins are facing someone called “Ray Kerr.” You just know leaves in the driveway hate to see this guy comin’. Sources close to the situation say this is a reliever, so I guess it’s a bullpen game for the Braves. The Marlins are pretty booty these days, but Jakob Marsee, Jared Serna (???), Javier Sanoja, Agustin Ramirez, Joe Mack, and Griffin Conine are all quite cheap if you need some savings.
Sean Burke looks bad lately, while the Rockies have enough to like vs. RHP to look like a decent large-field stack – Cole Carrigg, Mickey Moniak, Jake McCarthy, Zac Veen, Hunter Goodman, Connor Norby, and so on.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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