Hello! We’re officially into the stretch run of the MLB regular season, which will come to a close this coming Sunday. If you’re still playing MLB DFS in late-September, congratulations. If you’re still reading these, I just want you to know that I appreciate you. The baseball season is a long slog, so hopefully, you’ve gotten at least a little value out of these little write-ups.
There isn’t much to talk about today with just 3 games on the board. Should be a Pretty Crappy Slate, but someone will still win money on it, so it might as well be you.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Monday
- Zebby Matthews ($7,100, at Giants)
- Trey Yesavage ($8,500, at Orioles)
- Shane Baz ($8,000, vs. Blue Jays)
- River Ryan ($7,800, vs. Nationals)
- Keider Montero ($7,800, vs. Nationals)
- Blade Tidwell ($6,200, vs. Twins)
- DJ Herz ($5,000, at Tigers)
3 games should mean 6 pitchers in the pool, and yet, there are 7 names there. What in tarnation?
It looks like the Tigers are doing some sort of piggyback thing. River Ryan will make his MLB season and team debut for the Tigers after coming over from the Dodgers in the Tarik Skubal trade. Ryan is only projected for around 50 pitches, and it sounds like Keider Montero may get into the game after him.
The Tigers’ tandem will face the Nationals at home. Washington’s offensive production has slowed in the season’s latter stages, but they’ve still hit for a decent amount of power (.187 ISO) vs. righties. Ryan showed slightly above-average strikeout stuff at the minor league levels this season. He’s ranked as Detroit’s No. 3 overall prospect despite being an ancient 28 years old. Injuries have slowed his development, but here he is, ready to bask in the glory of major-league duty again.
He’s $7,800 and likely to top out around 50 pitches, so I’m not playing him. I suppose Montero is a little more appealing at the same salary considering he could be in line for 70-80 pitches, but this is a guy with a 16.7% K-rate on the year, so I’d rather just play the Nationals. I don’t know why I even started with the Tigers.
I suppose I should’ve started with Zebby Matthews, as he’ll likely be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate at $7,100 for a road matchup against the Giants. San Francisco’s offense has a ton of injuries, and what’s left is a lineup with a collective 22.8% strikeout rate, .117 ISO, and .293 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching. None of that is good at all. I suppose now is a good time to note that Zebby hasn’t been particularly good this season, either. His 20.5% strikeout rate is a career-low, while he’s allowed a barrel rate pushing 11% and a lotta power.
Zebby gets a big park upgrade going into San Francisco, and he has shown more K ability in the past. He’s fine. He’s not a pitcher who should ever generate the 50%+ ownership he’ll likely attract tonight, though, so he’s, by no means, a must-play in any format. Except cash, I guess, but you know, and I know, that you’re not playing MLB cash games.
The most talented pitcher on this slate is Trey Yesavage, but, unfortunately, you don’t get fantasy points for being talented. He’s also been banged up all season, and this will be his first outing for the Jays since August 4 as a result of a knee injury. I’d ordinarily be all over a pitcher of Yesavage’s caliber against the high-strikeout Orioles, but he’s also pretty likely to hover around a max of 50 pitches. $8,500 for that is silly, but this slate is silly and really sucks, so I think he’s playable. I’d play him before Ryan or Montero.
Shane Baz will probably be the popular target to pair with Zebby on DraftKings. He’s $8,000 and has a full leash, plus he’s facing a Blue Jays offense with underwhelming numbers (.144 ISO, .316 wOBA) vs. right-handed pitching. Toronto does not strike out (18.4%), while Baz’s 20.4% strikeout rate is also the lowest of his career. Like, by a lot. Almost like the Orioles can’t develop pitching quite as well as the Rays can, as it turns out.
Most of Baz’s issues have come against lefties, and we know the Blue Jays don’t have any scary LHBs. Baz is fine. This is also chalk that is easy to hate and get away from. I’m inclined to set some sort of rule to not allow Matthews and Baz into the same GPP lineup, as you’re eating over 100% projected ownership just on your pitching tandem, and that’ll naturally limit you to the same 4 offenses to stack them with. You won’t be the only one fading one of Baz or Matthews, but enough of the field will play them together that it’s one very easy way for you to cut down on your ownership product.
Let’s see,..DJ Herz will also make his season debut for Washington on the heels of Tommy John surgery. He’s been out for nearly 2 full years, though he did make 10 minor-league rehab starts coming into this one. Herz showed good strikeout ability (27.7%) in his first tour of MLB duty back in 2024, and he posted a strikeout rate north of 29% in those 10 MiLB rehab starts this year. I assume Washington will be fairly cautious with him here in his first real start back, though I think he’ll be closer to 70-75 pitches than the 50-pitch cap Yesavage and Ryan may have.
Herz is also just $5,000 and set to face a Detroit offense that’s doing plenty of striking out (24.6%) against LHP. They’re also not doing much hitting (.134 ISO, .315 wOBA). We don’t really need the savings on this slate, but there is also a chance that Herz has the highest ceiling. If I’m leaving over $1,000 on the table by playing him, I have no problem whatsoever with that on this slate.
Blade Tidwell makes another start for the Giants. He has decent numbers vs. RHBs, yet he’s really struggled with LHBs. Minnesota’s 5 lefties in the projected lineup are Not Great, but neither is Blade Tidwell. Not really gonna do this.
SP Rankings
- Herz
- Zebby
- Baz
- Yesavage
- Montero
- Ryan
- Blade Tidwell
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Twins (at Blade)
- Nationals (at Ryan/Montero)
- Blue Jays (at Baz)
- Orioles (vs. Yesavage)
- Tigers (vs. Herz)
- Giants (vs. Zebby)
Yep, that’s all of ’em. If I set that lineup rule that will only allow me to build lineups with one of Baz or Zebby, I’m inclined to just stack against the pitcher I’m fading. You can probably skate by by fading one of them if things go wrong, but the path to the very top on such a small slate is probably to double down and play the bats against him, too.
There is not much to like about the Giants these days, but Drew Gilbert, Victor Bericoto, and Shay Whitcomb have flashed some power vs. RHP. Gilbert is pretty easily the best of the bunch, which tells you all you need to know about the state of this roster. Turner Hill and Jonah Cox figure to hit high in the order, so I’d round it out with them next. Mens Wearhouse Guy: You’re gonna hate the way your lineup looks, I guarantee it.
The Blue Jays barely have an MLB-caliber lineup of their own these days, but they are more respectable than the Giants. As a result, I assume more people will want to stack Toronto against Baz. Stacking the Giants may induce vomiting. Baz has kept the ball on the ground and really limited damage vs. RHBs, but Kazuma Okamoto, Alejandro Kirk, and George Springer are the Jays’ best active hitters, and they’re all right-handed. Lefties Brett Bateman, Nathan Lukes, Sean Keys, Josh Smith, and Andres Gimenez are not good, but Bateman and Lukes figure to hit higher in the lineup, at least.
The Orioles don’t do much very well, but they do hit for some power. Yesavage won’t be in this game for long, but he does have a wide reverse platoon split. Pete Alonso (.260 ISO, .386 wOBA vs. RHP) lines up quite well here. Same for Coby Mayo and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, to a lesser extent, while Samuel Basallo is a very high-upside way to fill your catcher spot. The O’s will see some RHP from the Toronto pen, so fine with Dylan Beavers, Gunnar Henderson, and Colton Cowser, as always.
I like Herz, but let’s not pretend there isn’t a bunch of uncertainty here with a guy who hasn’t pitched in the majors in a couple of years. Gleyber Torres, Hao-Yu Lee, and Spencer Torkelson make a decent right-handed mini-stack against the southpaw. Riley Greene (11.8% barrels) has hit same-handed pitching well enough.
The Twins will be chalky against Tidwell and his aforementioned issues against lefties, but it is what it is on this slate. Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins is a solid 5-pack of lefties that’ll grade out well. Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis are the standout righties.
The Nats will face a couple of righties for Detroit. The stack builds itself, too – James Wood, CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile, Abimelec Ortiz, Keibert Ruiz.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply