We are running out of runway in the NBA playoffs, but Monday does offer up a 2-game slate at DraftKings. If you’re not sure who to play, I’ll help you prepare for tonight’s slate with my top NBA DFS picks for DraftKings, as well as some GPP picks.
This could be it for the Lakers, as they are facing elimination. The question is whether they can at least keep the game close enough to the point where we can comfortable use their players. I’ll answer that in today’s breakdown, and point you to the best plays. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Caris LeVert and Kevin Huerter.
- Best value plays: Daniss Jenkins. Hard to pass up if Huerter/LeVert are out.
- Top game to attack: Pistons vs. Cavs. Tighter spread.
- Top stud: SGA. Better dollar for dollar play than Cade and way cheaper.
- Blowout risks: Lakers vs. Thunder. Huge spread and elimination game.
Best NBA DFS Picks for Monday
- Chet Holmgren ($7.7k)
- Daniss Jenkins ($4.2k)
- Donovan Mitchell ($8.7k)
Need more guidance? Try out our DFS lineup tool if you haven’t already.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Chet wasn’t needed as much in game 3 – and perhaps that’s a problem again in game 4 – but we know he has been crushing in this matchup. He topped 50+ fantasy points in each of the first two games versus the Lakers and he was well on his way to 40+ last game.
Holmgren remains a bit too cheap, all things considered, so I don’t mind starting builds with him.
Jenkins flopped last time out, but both LeVert and Huerter are iffy for this one. Jenkins is going to be viable if just one of them sit, but if both end up being out he could be a total smash. He’s still really cheap and one bad game shouldn’t negate the previous three strong performances.
I also like Spida. Cleveland gets game four at home and they have a chance to even this series up. They stole game three, so we at least know they’re capable. Harden and Mobley might garner more ownership due to price, but we know Donovan Mitchell offers the better ceiling.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 5/11
These 2-day slates start to blend into each other a big, but I don’t think I’ll be very aggressive with the Lakers this time around. I am going to get away from them a bit, with a favoring toward the first game overall, as well as Cleveland and OKC.
I expect those two teams to play pretty well, and I will gladly be over-weight on Thunder values and Lakers guys that should be cheap but locked into solid roles (Rui, etc).
This is one of those weird slates where I don’t feel totally compelled to spend all the way up, just because Cade is crazy expensive and SGA/LeBron could have their ceilings upended by a blowout. When I do spend, though, SGA looks to be the top guy.
- 🟢 SAFE – Mitchell. I think at home with such a big game, we can trust Spida here.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Chet/Jenkins. We need Pistons injury news plus blowout risk lowers Chet’s floor.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 5/11
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Below you’ll see this chart map out each game based on point spread, total, and pace of play.
Monday’s NBA DFS Picks for Tournaments
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Austin Reaves ($7.9k)
- Ajay Mitchell ($6.7k)
I am still going to shy away from this game in general, but both of these guys do stand out for a couple of reasons. Reaves still gets 25% of the usage in L.A.’s offense and he’s been logging heavy minutes. If the game stays close, he will be a big reason why and 1. you don’t have to spend big to get him and 2. nobody will be playing him.
Reaves is obvious leverage on LeBron James as well.
The salary on Mitchell keeps rising, as he’s suddenly pushing $7k. That sounds crazy, but he’s fresh off a 52-point fantasy outing and has had a huge role with Jalen Williams sidelined. I think eating the money and just playing him at low ownership is super interesting tonight.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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