With just six MLB games on the board for Monday, May 11th, the player pool is a bit tighter than usual, but there are still some strong spots to attack in the home run market.
Today’s MLB home run picks feature a mix of elite power bats, favorable pitching matchups, and a few longer-shot plays that could pay off in a big way if things break right.
Rather than throwing out a massive list of names, we’re narrowing things down to the best opportunities on the slate. Below, we’ll highlight our top overall home run pick, the best value bet, and our favorite longshot HR prop for Monday’s MLB action.
Part of my process is leaning on some of the bats with an elite HR%, per our DFS lineup tool. You can use it mostly for DFS purposes (and try it free for 7 days), but that home run rate is part of the equation for today’s MLB home run picks.
Safest MLB Home Run Pick Today – Aaron Judge (2.95x)
There’s only 6 games and I am pretty sure Aaron Judge of all people doesn’t need a grand sales pitch, but hey, sometimes people get too cute. Let’s not do that today.
Our lineup tool is best served for using projections and simulations to build winning DFS lineups, but it also projects individual stats – which you can use to bet on props like home runs. For today, Judge has the best HR%. You can see who else ranks behind him by trying our builder out for free.
But there’s more to Judge and my top MLB HR prop picks for Monday than just what the tool is saying, as you do want proper context. The tool tends to factor all of that into what it pushes out, but if you’re on the fence about Judge sending one into the cheap seats, let’s keep going.
First, Judge is donging like crazy so far this year, as he’s beat the ball like it owes him money; launching 16 balls into gloves in the stands.
Judge has been amazing, and today he gets to operate in a hitter-friendly ballpark in Camden Yards, which ranks 6th for home runs in 2026. On top of that, he sports a team-leading .340 ISO versus righties and faces a beatable one in Brandon Young who coughed up a .233 ISO to right-handed bats in 2025.
Young hasn’t looked great so far this year, sporting less than a 21% rate against both sides of the plate, while also getting hit pretty hard. Judge is always a good bet to hit a home run. If you think he dongs, consider targeting him at Sleeper on Monday.
Best MLB HR Value Pick for Today – Kazuma Okamoto (3.89x)
You’re getting a better price at Sleeper with Okamoto – or wherever you target MLB home runs – and it’s pretty arguable he’s in an even better spot.
The extra value baked into his price is reason enough to get my interest, but he also sports a clean .268 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s getting the ball in the air (34.7% fly ball rate) and he’s hitting it harder than anyone (69.4%) on the Blue Jays.
On top of that, he’s hitting out of the 7th best park for homers today, and he’ll go up against Drew Rasmussen, who sees his K% drop by 6% going to righties. In addition, his fly ball rate spikes by almost 10% from left to right, while he’s getting slapped around (16.2% barrel rate) by that side of the plate.
Okamoto also ranks 3rd to start the day when looking at home run rate in our tool. You can back him at his solid 3.89x price at Sleeper now.
Top Longshot HR Play for Monday – Heliot Ramos (4.73x)
Ramos might be my favorite MLB home run pick today. He offers more value than the two mashers before him, and he simply is not a guy most people will even think to click on Monday.
They might if they tapped into our new tool, as it’s assigned him the 5th best HR% of the day. It makes sense, too, as he’s moving from the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to Dodger Stadium, which ranks 1st in home runs on the year.
The big park jump is nice, but Ramos also gets to face the struggling Roki Sasaki, who is allowing a staggering .357 ISO to righties this year. Ramos hasn’t exactly crushed against Sasaki’s main pitch (Fastball), but he’s been on fire against the Fastball Splitter.
MLB Home Run Betting Tips
New to MLB home run betting? Regardless of where you predict MLB home runs, the logic applies the same. Here are some tips to help get you ready for some big wins:
Target Pitchers Who Give Up Hard Contact
One of the fastest ways to find strong MLB home run picks is by identifying pitchers who consistently allow hard contact and fly balls. Metrics like barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and HR/9 can help uncover vulnerable arms, especially when they’re facing elite power hitters. Some pitchers may have decent ERAs but still struggle badly at limiting home runs.
Prioritize Ballpark and Weather Conditions
Not all stadiums play the same. Parks like Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Yankee Stadium can dramatically boost home run upside, especially during warmer weather. Wind direction also matters more than most bettors think. A strong breeze blowing out can completely change the outlook for a hitter-friendly matchup.
Look for Platoon Advantages
Certain hitters crush one side of pitching. Left-handed batters facing weak right-handed pitchers are often some of the best HR prop targets on the board. Before placing a bet, check splits like slugging percentage, ISO, and OPS against the handedness of the opposing pitcher.
Don’t Ignore Lineup Position
Batters hitting near the top of the lineup usually get an extra plate appearance compared to hitters buried lower in the order. That added opportunity matters in a volatile market like home run betting. Leadoff hitters with power can often provide sneaky value when sportsbooks focus too heavily on cleanup bats.
Longshots Can Offer the Best Value
Home run betting is naturally high variance, which means longshot bets can be worth targeting. You don’t need to hit these consistently to stay profitable. Instead of only betting household names at short odds, look for overlooked hitters with strong matchup data, favorable weather, or recent hard-contact trends.
Making the Right MLB Home Run Picks Today
Looking for an edge on today’s MLB slate? Along with our best MLB home run picks, make sure to check out our lineup builder tool to boost your game, both in DFS and sports betting.
If you’re playing DFS, our DFS lineup builder helps generate optimized lineups using advanced projections, ownership data, simulations, stacking controls, and lineup rankings for DraftKings and FanDuel contests.
It’s built to help identify high-upside tournament combinations while saving time during the research process. We also recommend checking out Sleeper Fantasy for MLB contests, fantasy games, and player prop action throughout the season.
Whether you’re betting HR props, building DFS lineups, or attacking same-game parlays, having the right tools and data can make a massive difference over the long run.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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