Tuesday’s MLB slate features no shortage of power upside, creating plenty of opportunities for bettors searching for the best MLB home run picks today.
With several vulnerable pitchers taking the mound and multiple hitters entering the night swinging hot bats, there are some intriguing HR prop spots worth targeting across the board. In this article, we’ll break down our favorite home run bets for Tuesday, including our top overall pick, best value play, and a few high-upside longshots capable of delivering big payouts.
Whether you’re building same-game parlays, betting player props, or looking for DFS leverage, these are the hitters we believe have the best chance to leave the yard tonight.
Part of my process is leaning on some of the bats with an elite HR%, per our DFS lineup tool. You can use it mostly for DFS purposes (and try it free for 7 days), but that home run rate is part of the equation for today’s MLB home run picks.
Safest MLB Home Run Pick Today – Nick Kurtz (+303)
You can go shoot for the stars with guys like Judge, Trout, Ohtani, and a number of other bats. But Kurtz stands out the most for me. Our tool actually does not give him a big home run rate, but it does like him in general (9.7 fantasy points projection).
I’m straying from the tool here, as I just like Kurtz based on everything else I am seeing. He has a solid five homers on the year, but he really excels against righties, where his Athletics-leading .349 ISO can go to work.
The guy has also just been flat out FEELING IT lately.
He does have a really high strikeout rate, but the As park is great for scoring and he’ll face Andre Pallante, who is coughing up a .162 ISO versus lefty sticks. Lefty bats are only missing at a 16% clip against him, too, while he is getting hit hard (50.8%).
Oh, and the wind is blowing out at a solid 10 MPH and it’s 82 degrees outside. It’s a good day for Kurtz to send one into the cheap seats.
Our lineup tool is best served for using projections and simulations to build winning DFS lineups, but it also projects individual stats – which you can use to bet on props like home runs. For today, Judge has the best HR%. You can see who else ranks behind him by trying our builder out for free.
Best MLB HR Value Pick for Today – JJ Bleday (+318)
Maybe there’s better value, I don’t know. But what I do know is that our DFS lineup builder tool is digging Bleday, and this situation also sets up beautifully for him.
First, our tool is assigning him a sick 9.6% HR rate, which is the best power mark for hitters on the early slate. Maybe he’s just a great play on his own or a good option as part of some Reds stacks in MLB DFS contests, but I also think he’s a strong bet to send one deep.
Outside of the home run rate, everything still sets up beautifully for him here. The park factor is amazing, as Great American Ballpark ranks 2nd in home runs on the year. The wind is blowing in gently here, but it’s 75 degrees in Cincy and Bleday gets to go up against a potential gas can in Miles Mikolas.
This is a bad situation for Mikolas, who allows a staggering .262 ISO to lefty bats. He’s also not striking anyone out and he gets hit hard 41.5% of the time. Bleday, meanwhile, has the best ISO (.238) the Reds have to offer against right-handed pitching.
Want a bit more value? I really like Kyle Stowers today. Strong ISO numbers against righties and he’s facing the beatable Bailey Ober in a hitter’s park with winds blowing out violently.
Top Longshot HR Play for Tuesday – Liam Hicks (+510)
Usually I go for a much bigger longshot bet, but +510 will do. The point is Hicks is not a big favorite to dong today, and you’re getting really good value for a guy I think can go yard.
Hicks does have power (9 HR) and he sports a .155 ISO against righties. His price is actually kind of insane when you look at his production this year, as his ISO is absurd (.287) and he’s in a good park for homers.
This park is sending a ton of win to right field, too (19 MPH!) and he’s going up against known sad sack, Bailey Ober. Ober is allowing a gross .234 ISO to lefties so far this year and he isn’t striking them out, either. On top of that, he’s giving up a 37% fly ball rate.
None of that is good for Ober, but it looks quite promising for Hicks.
MLB Home Run Betting Tips
New to MLB home run betting? Regardless of where you predict MLB home runs, the logic applies the same. Here are some tips to help get you ready for some big wins:
Target Pitchers Who Give Up Hard Contact
One of the fastest ways to find strong MLB home run picks is by identifying pitchers who consistently allow hard contact and fly balls. Metrics like barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and HR/9 can help uncover vulnerable arms, especially when they’re facing elite power hitters. Some pitchers may have decent ERAs but still struggle badly at limiting home runs.
Prioritize Ballpark and Weather Conditions
Not all stadiums play the same. Parks like Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Yankee Stadium can dramatically boost home run upside, especially during warmer weather. Wind direction also matters more than most bettors think. A strong breeze blowing out can completely change the outlook for a hitter-friendly matchup.
Look for Platoon Advantages
Certain hitters crush one side of pitching. Left-handed batters facing weak right-handed pitchers are often some of the best HR prop targets on the board. Before placing a bet, check splits like slugging percentage, ISO, and OPS against the handedness of the opposing pitcher.
Don’t Ignore Lineup Position
Batters hitting near the top of the lineup usually get an extra plate appearance compared to hitters buried lower in the order. That added opportunity matters in a volatile market like home run betting. Leadoff hitters with power can often provide sneaky value when sportsbooks focus too heavily on cleanup bats.
Longshots Can Offer the Best Value
Home run betting is naturally high variance, which means longshot bets can be worth targeting. You don’t need to hit these consistently to stay profitable. Instead of only betting household names at short odds, look for overlooked hitters with strong matchup data, favorable weather, or recent hard-contact trends.
Making the Right MLB Home Run Picks Today
Looking for an edge on Tuesday’s MLB action? Alongside our top MLB home run picks, be sure to explore our DFS lineup builder tool to gain an advantage in both daily fantasy sports and sports betting.
For DFS players, our lineup builder is designed to create optimized DraftKings and FanDuel lineups using advanced projections, simulation-based rankings, ownership percentages, stacking settings, and customizable lineup controls.
The tool is built to uncover high-ceiling tournament combinations while helping streamline your overall research process. We also suggest checking out Sleeper Fantasy for MLB contests, fantasy formats, and player prop opportunities throughout the season.
Whether you’re targeting home run props, crafting DFS tournament builds, or putting together same-game parlays, having access to strong data and the right tools can provide a major long-term edge.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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